My apologies for yesterday, guys – just a crazy day of football that made no sense for the vast majority of the evening.

Today’s featured game is the Serie A encounter in Turin between Juventus and Parma. Hosts Juventus haven’t really set the Serie A alight with their tempremental displays so far this season and yet still find themselves near the top of the table so they should be pretty content with how things are. Visitors Parma are lurking dangerously close to the drop zone but have impressed under their new manager and should have enough quality to avoid the drop, ultimately.

I always get the impression that when people see the name “Juventus” and see them playing at home, they immediately assume that a home win will follow. This is quite irritating because it’s what I call “betting on a name” which involves no thought process whatsoever; it just means you’re backing a team because you’ve either heard of them or heard of more of their players than their opponents’ players, which is the utter epitome of stupidity.

Juventus are actually a very strange outfit, really. They’ve got some fantastic players and are obviously one of the most well-supported sides in Italian football but they don’t play like a big side nowadays, which is why I tend to avoid backing them. You can look at their wealth of attacking ability with Del Piero, Amauri, Iaquinta, Krasic, and Quagliarella and be impressed or you can look at their strange defence and be confused. I’d always give Juventus a chance of scoring goals because that’s simply what they do best. However, at home, Juventus are statistically the worst side in Serie A when it comes to defending. Even the bottom three clubs in Serie A can’t match Juventus’ record of having conceded twelve goals in eight home games. Juventus are the leading goalscorers in Serie A at home and let’s face it – they’ve had to be to win any of their games with such atrocious defending. That said, Juventus have only won half of their home games in Serie A this season so be very careful when “assuming” that this side will win games automatically – the ability is there in attack but not often in defence. When you think of the few grains of stability in the Juventus defence, you think of Bonucci and Chiellini (well, he’s anything but stable mentally but he’s a good defender!) but Bonucci misses tonight’s game so I think we may see Chiellini tearing out what little of his hair is remaining by the end of play tonight! Defensively, I expect Juventus to struggle even more than normal here; the only side to have left Turin without scoring in Juventus’ eight home games was newly-promoted Lecce! Should Juventus win this game? Probably; they still have a good attacking side without the missing Iaquinta. However, to back them at the quoted odds is just ridiculous, in my humble opinion!

Visitors Parma have had a slow start to their Serie A campaign but manager Marino has turned it around a little for them, most notably so during the period leading up to the winter break. Parma are a much better side at home than they are away from home because their defending on the road is utterly shambolic. In fact, only Lecce and Bologna have conceded more goals away from home than Parma have this season so it’s fairly straightforward to see why Parma struggle so much on the road when it comes to obtaining points. Nonetheless, there have only been two occasions this season whereby Parma haven’t scored in their eight away games so they do have the firepower. Let’s face it; Hernan Crespo is the wrong side of thirty but you don’t lose that lethal goalscoring instinct which he has in abundance. Parma do miss his strike partner Marques for this game but he’s more of the “makeweight” in attack; Crespo is the goalscoring machine. Parma aren’t what they were, of course; there’s no Nesta, Buffon, Nakata, Ortega etc. anymore. What they do still have, however, is their spirit and their desire to win games like this; games which I call “old rivalries” between the older and more traditional clubs in Italy. This game does mean something to Parma for more than just points so I expect a good game here. They’ve been able to score at Internazionale and Palermo respectively during their last two away games so why not against one of the worst defensive sides in Serie A?

I don’t like the 1×2 market here, although Juventus should win the game. Juventus don’t have the defensive capacity to even make themselves “accumulator fodder” for me today so I’ll be giving that one a miss. However, Juventus do tend to score and concede frequently at home and backing both sides to score at 5/6 therefore appeals to me, especially with experienced Serie A legend Crespo on the opposing side.

Team news – Juventus miss Bonucci, Buffon, and Iaquinta whereas Parma miss Angelo and Marques.

Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.

Thursday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Cagliari vs AC Milan - over 2.5 goals at 11/10.

It’s taken Cagliari some time to adjust to life without manager Allegri but now that they finally have, they’re ironically facing a side led by their former mentor. Cagliari are starting to rediscover the form that makes Sardinia a place that Serie A clubs don’t wish to visit with three wins from their last five home games. Indeed, during their three home defeats in Serie A this season, Cagliari haven’t scored and that’s very important to me. Cagliari aren’t great defensively but when they score goals, they don’t tend to lose games. In fact, when they’ve scored at home this season, they’ve not lost so be wary of this side. Donadoni does know what he’s doing sometimes and Cagliari at least look strong at home, especially with Matri in great form this season. Acquafresca isn’t perhaps doing as much as we’d all expected him to but Brazilian striker Nene has filled in for him where necessary and the Brazilian has returned from suspension now so can play in this game if Donadoni chooses to field him. Cagliari have a largely full squad available to them so I expect their usual committed display at home, especially against one of the bigger Serie A clubs. I don’t doubt Cagliari’s ability in front of goal but I do doubt their defensive strength so I’ve ruled out the option of a home win with draw no bet at 6/4, tempting though it was!

Instead, I’ve opted for over 2.5 goals here. Why? Well, these two sides do enjoy playing a good game of football, generally speaking, and that’s shown by six out of the last eight meetings between the two sides going over 2.5 goals. AC Milan aren’t exactly at their peak nowadays anyway with many of their players becoming far too old to make this side a consistent force in Serie A. However, they do have the firepower to score goals and I’m sure they’ll manage it today, especially with the scintillating Pato in their ranks. AC Milan’s absentee list is rather long, just in case you were thinking of backing them here for some strange reason! Missing Nesta and Zambrotta in defence means that they should concede at least once here and missing midfielders Pirlo, Boateng, and Flamini, not to mention attackers Robinho, Ibrahimovic, and Inzaghi should upset their stable approach to games rather excessively. AC Milan do have attacking quality in depth, however, and their experience is there for all to see so they should put up a good show tonight.

The 1×2 market doesn’t interest me in a big, big way here with both managers knowing their opposing sides very well. AC Milan are missing too many players to be taken seriously here so we should see an open game of football with plenty of goals. Therefore, over 2.5 goals appeals to me at generous odds of 11/10.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.

Team news – Cagliari miss Marchetti and Sivakov whereas AC Milan miss Nesta, Flamini, Zambrotta, Pirlo, Boateng, Inzaghi, Ibrahimovic, and Robinho.

Genoa vs Lazio – away win with draw no bet at 6/5.

I think that there’s a good chance that I’m becoming a fan of Lazio on the sly, which is terrible as I’ve always sided with AS Roma when it comes to the Rome sides! However, I’ve got a lot of respect for this well-oiled machine as they seem to have the right amount of ability in key areas of their team and play consistently well. Zarate is lethal in attack, Hernanes is creative in midfield, and Radu is the rock at the back, and it works really well for them. If indeed Lazio do sign Santa Cruz as reports suggest that they will then I’m all over them winning this title because I look around and I don’t see consistent competition anywhere other than perhaps their bitter rivals AS Roma.

Anyway, returning to this game – Lazio’s good displays have convinced me to take a chance here. Well, I say a chance but Genoa have been poor this season. They’re one of the lowest-scoring sides in the division and that isn’t a trait that we could have associated with them over the past couple of years, generally-speaking. In fact, you’d do well to find a side that scored more goals than they did during those campaigns. However, Genoa are sadly something of a feeder club and their good players do tend to leave and thus we have where they are this season; floating just above the relegation zone. Genoa have had to rely on their solid defence this season but even that has taken a savage blow over the few days of the January transfer window with Internazionale swooping to sign impressive centre-back Ranocchia, who was the rock of this Genoa defence. I think they’re really going to struggle in the second half of this campaign without him, starting today.

Ever since these two sides were put in the same division back in 2008, Lazio have won all three trips to Genova to face Genoa. I’d argue that they bring their best side out of all of those trips to this game today so I do fancy their chances here. Genoa have already lost four times in eight home games this season due to not scoring goals and Lazio have impressively already won four times on the road this season whilst boasting a defensive record away from home so strong that only hosts Genoa can better it. Lazio are beginning to look like the finished article and given that Genoa have just lost a very important player for them, I find it very hard to envision Lazio losing this game so my call is thea way win with draw no bet cover at 6/5.

Team news – Genoa miss Palacio and Sculli whereas Lazio miss Garrido.

Verdict: Lazio to win with draw no bet at 6/5.

AS Roma vs Catania – under 2.5 goals at evens.

As I mentioned in the above preview – the only side I see challenging Lazio this season with the way things are currently developing is AS Roma. Claudio Ranieri is a good manager and his Roma side have looked strong for the vast majority of his reign. I’d argue that Roma haven’t been as consistently good under any manager until Ranieri came along since the days of Capello and that makes the Romans a dangerous side.

However, Roma do still lack firepower, perhaps as a consequence of their rather unique tactical approach of “five midfielders playing wherever they want to” in a 4-5-1. Vucinic is a good striker but without him, Roma lack a lethal finisher and that does cost them at times. Their midfield is second to none with power, passion, experience, and creativity in abundance, not to mention goalscoring ability. If you give Roma the midfield then they’ll generally win the game and that is unfortunately what Catania are missing a good portion of today. Nonetheless, Catania’s defence is very strong and as such, they’re a very hard side to beat. They have their absences in midfield, it’s true, but their only missing defender of any significance is Potenza and they do have cover so I fancy Catania to “park the bus” here and frustrate a Roma side that is overly fond of the “slow build-up” and “shoot from range” tactics. That’s what puts me off the idea of backing Roma to win this game, really – there’s a decent chance that they won’t score against a side that isn’t interested in attacking away from home, just as they did against Cesena earlier this season. However, rather than dicing with the 1×2 market, I’ve decided to opt for under 2.5 goals here. Roma are a side that I respect a lot but they aren’t great entertainers; they’ll sit on a one-nil or two-nil lead until the end of the game if they get it and given that I don’t expect Catania to attack much or see much of the ball, under 2.5 goals seems the best call at evens.

Team news – Roma miss Lobont, Rosi, Pizarro, and Adriano whereas Catania miss Potenza, Terlizzi, Izco, Ricchiuti, Biagianti, Plasmati, and Morimoto.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.

Palermo vs Sampdoria - home win at 5/6.

I’d approach this one with a bit of caution as Sampdoria are one of the sides that actually has a good record in Sicily, which is rather unusual.

However, going with the current situation of both clubs, I have to side with Palermo. Palermo are always strong in Sicily and have demonstrated this by overcoming AS Roma and bitter rivals Catania here with ease in the not-too-distant past. They are weaker this season following the departures of Cavani and Kjaer respectively over the summer but Argentinian midfielder Pastore has stepped up the to plate and is rapidly becoming a club legend, although I don’t think he’ll be at Palermo long enough to actually become one, such is the general opinion of him on the European stage. However, he’s the kind of match-winner that they need whilst they attempt to deal with their losses and he’s doing extremely well for them, as are unsung Slovenian midfielders Ilicic and Bacinovic, both of which were only signed from Slovenian giants Maribor this season after Palermo endured two torrid ties with Maribor. Both of them have complimented the side immensely and have made life rather easy for target man Pinilla and journeyman striker Maccarone, neither of which are what I would call particularly good strikers. All in all, Palermo are rolling along quite nicely thanks to their excellent midfield and I expect that to continue today.

Sampdoria are still missing Cassano, irrespective of how long he was out for before the winter break. He’s now left for AC Milan, as most of you are probably aware, but talent isn’t something you can just click your fingers and find replaced for you and that’s why I think Sampdoria will struggle. They’ve loaned Manchester United striker Federico Macheda for the remainder of the season as he’ll provide the pace that Cassano did that powerhouse Pazzini sadly lacks. Ultimately, that could be a good combination but Macheda lacks too much from his overall game for me to take his signing seriously for this game alone. His ability to put the ball in the net is unquestionable but his overall contribution is not that of a team player – yet. Therefore, I have to presume that Sampdoria’s unflattering away form is set to continue; at least for a little while. The only two games that they’ve won away from home in Serie A this season were against two newly-promoted clubs and although they’ve only lost twice along the way, they’re still not a very convincing attacking side and I can only see them struggling if they fall behind. Sampdoria’s defence is strong and Palermo will have to work hard to break them down but they do have the ability to do so in midfield so I’ll give Palermo a chance here.

I expect a tight and potentially low-scoring game here as Sampdoria aren’t rash away from home and Palermo’s strikers aren’t superb, which thus doesn’t always compliment the excellent work of their midfield. However, I do think that Palermo have more in their arsenal with which they can win this game than Sampdoria do and if Sampdoria fall behind in this game then I can see them losing it as Palermo are generally an assured home side. My call for this game is a home win at 5/6 although I’d leave it if the odds drop anymore as Sampdoria are no mugs defensively.

Team news – Palermo miss Carrozzieri, Hernandez, and Pinilla whereas Sampdoria miss Ziegler, Semoli, Cacciatore, Padalino, and have doubts over Da Costa and Gastaldello.

Verdict: Palermo to win at 5/6.

Recommended bets:

Over 0.5 goals in Juventus vs Parma, Udinese vs Chievo Verona, and Cagliari vs AC Milan at 4/5.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

Italian Serie A:

Juventus vs Parma (6) both sides to score
Brescia vs Cesena (5) under 2.5 goals
Cagliari vs AC Milan (5) 2-1
Genoa vs Lazio (6) 1-2, draw no bet
Lecce vs Bari (6) under 2.5 goals
AS Roma vs Catania (7) under 2.5 goals
Udinese vs Chievo Verona (6) over 2.5 goals
Bologna vs Fiorentina (6) 1-1
Palermo vs Sampdoria (6) 2-1
Internazionale vs SSC Napoli (5) 1-1

Mexican Primera Division:

Necaxa vs Jaguares (5) 1-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!