Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League Qualifier in Russia between Sibir Novosibirsk and PSV Eindhoven. The hosts are making their maiden voyage in European competition whereas their visitors are a household name worldwide albeit with less household names than in the past but are still a giant club nonetheless so we already have something of a mismatch.
We’ll look at the hosts first, however. Sibir hail from Novosibirsk, an intimidating city in central Russia where many sides within Russia fear to travel to. Sibir are not the atypical Russian low-scoring side when playing at home; they’re extremely good at closing the ball down and love to attack and score goals. Their defensive strength is minimal because of this tactic but they do have some joy at home if they face an under-prepared side and take an early lead. However, any side that averages conceding two goals per home game domestically has real problems and that’s why Sibir are currently bottom of the Russian Premier League and are strong favourites to reclaim their place in the division below this year. Sibir reached this round by overcoming Cypriot outfit Apollon Limassol on away goals after a 2-2 draw, winning 1-0 at home and losing 2-1 away. Sibir played well in those two games but I’d expect nothing less from a side mid-season when facing a side that hadn’t played a competitive match for two months. They’re hosting a PSV Eindhoven side today that have only just kicked off their Eredivisie campaign but boast a frighteningly good squad and Sibir Novosibirsk have very good reason to fear here. Not only do they have a crucial home game with Amkar Perm at weekend in their battle to avoid relegation but they’ve also just parted with captain Medvedev (who was an experienced striker and their top goalscorer both this and last season) as he’s signed for Rubin Kazan. To be blunt, they’re going to be fucked without him and I doubt they’ll score today as a result.
That’s not to say that PSV Eindhoven won’t give them ample opportunities to do so, however. If there’s one thing that Dutch sides have convinced me of in European football this season then it’s that their attention towards defence is getting even more lax year by year. However, PSV have seemingly taken over Ajax’s mantle from last year by conceding a goal or two but scoring a lot more so they’re a side that must be taken seriously. They’ve already notched up eight goals in two Eredivisie games and their last match against De Graafschap was won at such a canter that PSV were able to rest key players ahead of this game i.e. Swedish starlet Toivonen. PSV do miss the creativity of Hungarian midfielder Balasz Dzsudzsak for this game through suspension and that will be a partial blow for them although I’d fear it more if they were facing a side that I felt could equal them quality-wise. Happily, that isn’t an issue today as I rate PSV as being two or possibly even three times as good as Sibir Novosibirsk so I think PSV should still have more than enough for their Russian hosts to deal with.
I don’t think this pitch will be friendly for the Dutch visitors but I think they’ve played in enough shit venues over the years to handle it. They’ve got a good blend of experience and youth in their talented squad and their commanding start to their Eredivisie campaign gives me great belief in this side, especially in front of goal. If Sibir had Medvedev for this game then I’d give them a chance but without him, I can’t see a home win here. I wouldn’t jump over PSV on the handicap simply because there’s a chance you’ve never heard of Sibir; be aware that this pitch and indeed venue will be very testing. However, the odds on the away win look a little too generous today when you consider the class difference so I think PSV should take a slender lead back to the Netherlands after this game today at decent odds of 13/20.
Verdict: PSV Eindhoven to win at 13/20.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
BATE Borisov vs Maritimo Funchal – home win at 11/10.
Hosts BATE Borisov are a little unfortunate to be in the UEFA Europa League following a spirited display in Denmark, eventually crashing out to Superligaen giants FC Copenhagen. However, they’re back with a vengeance tonight and in Belarus they’re a hard side to face at the best of times! BATE enter this game on the back of a convincing 2-0 win over Shakhtyor Soligorsk, which will do wonders for their morale as it was very much a “we’ll-put-you-back-in-your-place” win against their in-form visitors that re-affirmed BATE’s “champions” tag so I expect BATE to be well motivated for this game, not to mention bringing good morale to this game too. You only need to flance at the Vysshaya Liga table to see that BATE’s strength is their unyielding defence that has conceded just four goals in twenty domestic games this season, which is phenomenal, to be frank! European football is different, of course, but knowing a side’s strengths and weaknesses is paramount to betting successfully. So my interpretation of BATE tonight is that they won’t concede against Maritimo; not only because the hosts are sound defensively but because they’re also more experienced than their Portuguese visitors that don’t travel well as it is. My main question here is whether BATE will score or not. View them as the Belarusian equivilant of Russia’s Zenit St.Petersburg and you’ll know what I mean.
That’s where we introduce Maritimo Funchal, however! Portuguese sides are not notorious for being able to defend and these guys are no exception. You can look at their displays last round against Bangor City of Wales and say that they won both legs, scoring ten goals along the way and be impressed and watch as idiots blindly claim they can win the UEFA Europa League. Alternatively, you can look at the fact that they conceded three goals over those two legs against a very much inferior side and barely managed to beat them away from home in a somewhat disappointing display. I prefer to look at the latter aspect because it affirms my beliefs in Portuguese sides lacking in defensive competence although they do tend to compensate for that by being astute in attack. Atypically, however, Portuguese sides will go for the draw on the road because they’re always strong at home so I don’t expect to see much adventure from Maritimo today so I’m going to be rather bold and rule out the away win here.
Therefore, we’re left with the home win and the draw. I won’t deny that a draw is possible here; both sides play possession football and don’t give much away. However, both are very much “home” sides and as BATE are at home and are more adept tactically, I have to favour the Belarusian hosts to nick this one today. A defeat tonight won’t concern Maritimo greatly because they’re good in Portugal so I think a narrow win for the mid-season hosts against a Maritimo side that has only played three competitive games this season at 11/10 looks a decent bet.
Verdict: BATE Borisov to win at 11/10.
Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart – lay VfB Stuttgart at 21/20.
I watched VfB Stuttgart somehow overcome Norway’s Molde FK last round and afterwards I had to wonder just how they’d managed it. Stuttgart played worse than I’d seen them play for some years so it’s plain to see that new manager Fredi Bobic has a lot to address before the Bundesliga begins. I don’t know what else I expected, to be honest – this Stuttgart side has made some hefty losses over the summer with Khedira joining Real Madrid, Hleb returning to Barcelona, and Hilbert joining Besiktas JK and the losses are plain to see. Stuttgart look somewhat devoid of creativity and lack the clinical finishing that Russian striker Pavel Pogrebnyak used to have in his game but has seemingly forgotten about. All in all, Stuttgart are not worth the odds they’ve been given today so don’t bet on them for their name here! Slovan Bratislava impressed me in the last round by easing past Red Star Belgrade with clinical finishing and good possession. They’ve started their Corgon Liga campaign well too so I’m expecting a highly-motivated display from the hosts and if they maintain their current level of potency, I think they’ll give Stuttgart an awful lot to think about in this game. For me, there’s far too much value in laying the visitors today because I see very little that concerns me in their attack so I’ll be laying Stuttgart today.
Verdict: Lay VfB Stuttgart at 21/20.
Omonia Nicosia vs Metalist Kharkiv – home win at 6/5.
Omonia let me down against Austrian champions Salzburg but have a chance of redemption tonight against Ukrainian opponents Metalist Kharkiv. If Metalist were their usual untouchable selves in time for this game then I’d give it a miss but the fact is that their defence is terrible at the moment. They’ve been so uncertain in their domestic games – it’s like the defenders can’t even speak the same language! I’m choosing to overlook their 1-0 win at Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk last match, incidentally, as both sides rested players for their respective European games. Their display at home to Vorskla Poltava in the match prior to that was what concerned me massively as they leaked three goals against one of the most impotent Ukrainian Premier League sides I’ve ever seen! Metalist have few problems in attack and in passing the ball well but their defending leaves me with zero confidence in them keeping their wealthy Cypriot hosts out today so I think Metalist have a real problem here. Omonia only showed their true potential against Salzburg in patches; they need to show it a lot more tonight to claim a win here. However, the talent is unquestionably there and the heat of Nicosia will not be an ally of the Ukrainians so they may experience a little fatigue. All in all, I really fancy Omonia to trouble their visitors today and although I expect a shrewd and calculating game from both sides, I think Omonia have enough to win this one at good odds of 6/5.
Verdict: Omonia Nicosia to win at 6/5.
AIK Solna vs Levski Sofia – away win at 7/5.
This is probably my riskiest call of the day as Bulgarian sides don’t travel well but I’m banking on AIK’s dismal campaign to yield success for our Bulgarian friends! Levski have made a bright start to their A PFG campaign despite facing a “welcome to hell” fixture list including rivals CSKA Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia in their first few games, both of which they managed to win. The acquisition of French striker Dembele has done masses for Levski as they have a much-needed powerhouse striker as a target man, which allows their creative midfielders to get in and around him and thus Levski look a better side. They were brought back down to earth on a trip to Chernomorets Burgas a few days ago, which was a little unexpected, but may have woken them up in time for their trip to Sweden. Levski reached this round after they crushed AIK’s Allsvenskan rivals Kalmar 6-3 on aggregate. Although AIK are the reigning Allsvenskan champions, I personally rate Kalmar as a better side so I do read something into Levski’s dominant win against Kalmar. AIK have had no end of problems this season both on and off the field and their lacklustre displays in each competition tell me that they’re no more than an average Swedish side currently with a big history. AIK struggle to break down defences and score goals whereas Levski are dynamite on the counter-attack so I can only look at the away win here and think that 7/5 is a good set of odds for the Levski win.
Verdict: Levski Sofia to win at 7/5.
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Lech Poznan – home win with -1.5 handicap at 29/20.
You all know my thoughts on backing Dnipro scoring more than one goal in a game a.k.a. don’t do it! However, I’m taking a bold plunge here by backing them to do so but there is method to the madness here. Lech have started…well, everything they’ve been in this season really badly. There’s little cohesion in the team, no potency, and the side miss Lewandowski too much. They brought in Rudnevs to replace him far later than they should have done and he now can’t play in this game as he’s cup-tied, I believe. Lech are missing a whole host of key defenders for this game – Gancarczyk, Wojtkowiak, Bosacki (captain!) – and offer so little in front of goal that it’s unreal. Krivets isn’t playing as well as he could be and the side basically looks very uneasy. As I said earlier, I don’t like backing Dnipro on the handicap due to their love for single-goal victories but they’re playing very well this season and should be able to do it, irrespective of their harsh defeat against Metalist Kharkiv at weekend. If Lech score in this game (somehow) then I have very little confidence in this selection but having watched Lech’s terrible display at home to Arka Gdynia last match, who are arguably the worst side in the Ekstraklasa currently, I cannot do anything but go against them heavily as they offer nothing in front of goal currently.
Verdict: Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 29/20.
CSKA Sofia vs The New Saints – both sides to score at evens.
The problems of CSKA Sofia are well-documented with fan pressure, terrible displays due to laziness, and Bulgarian clubs never respond well to such things. Typically, a few days ago, CSKA Sofia sacked Dochev after just a few games this season. Losing to Levski Sofia is a big thing in CSKA’s world but failing to beat the likes of Rakovski was clearly too much and he’s been sacked. There’s been no appointment made to replace him yet and the club are frankly in chaos. Tiero and Miguel haven’t trained due to falling out with the club. Popov, Minev, and Grillo aren’t fit to play in this game. The players that can play aren’t playing well so how CSKA hope to progress here is beyond me; they’re just lucky that The New Saints aren’t that good a side. I expect a strong and resilient display from the Welsh side as they have done throughout European football this season and with CSKA’s ample problems at the moment, I’m confident that the Welsh side will score at least once. Despite CSKA’s problems, I cannot envision them not scoring in this game against an inferior side so my call today is for both sides to score at generous odds.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Lausanne Sports vs Lokomotiv Moscow – lay Lokomotiv Moscow at evens.
I don’t understand how a Lokomotiv Moscow side that cannot win away from home in Russia can be so short to win away from home…in Switzerland! I have great respect for Yury Semin; he’s a damn good manager and he’s revolutionised this side with the acquisition of talented midfielder Olexandr Aliev from Dynamo Kiev but Lokomotiv will approach this game as they do all away games; defensively. Not only that, but they enter this game on the back of a home defeat in the Moscow derby against bitter rivals Spartak so confidence is not high in the camp currently. However, hosts Lausanne Sports have plenty to be happy about following convincing displays both domestically and on the continent this season with goals coming at will and displays of such confidence and composure that you could be mistaken for thinking that Lausanne Sports are not the Challenge League side that they actually are. Lokomotiv obviously have a fairly superior side but to this extent? Not for my money. The value today has to be in laying the Russians here as they’ll much prefer to win this tie back in Moscow.
Verdict: Lay Lokomotiv Moscow at evens.
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Qarabagh – half-time draw/full-time BV09 Borussia Dortmund at 11/4.
This is a bold but fun bet! Dortmund played well in the Bundesliga last year and have made some very interesting and potentially very good acquisitions over the summer, most notably Lewandowski from Lech Poznan and Kagawa from Cerezo Osaka. These talented youngsters join an already talented Dortmund side with the likes of experienced Kehl alongside talented playmaker Sahin in the middle of the park with battlers Barrios and Haedo-Valdez in attack, not to mention the giant Subotic in central defence. I like this Dortmund side an awful lot and think they’ll be a force to be reckoned with when all of their new signings bed in. They’re a very imposing side and make sides work very hard to overcome them so I think we’ll see a full-blooded display from the hosts today. However, they’re facing a side that are very hard to beat and have proven so on numerous occasions throughout the past few years thanks to composed possession football that is generally beyond Azeri sides. However, Qarabagh have that ability so don’t underestimate them here – they’ll be a hard side to break down, as usual. The bad news for the Azeri visitors is that star striker Afran Ismayilov has broken his leg and won’t play for some time so their attacking threat is all but nullified. If that doesn’t force them into a 4-5-1 then I don’t know what will! I’m therefore expecting this well-organised unit to cause an energetic Dortmund side a lot of problems in terms of the German side scoring goals as it will take time to break the visitors down. I do think Dortmund will eventually do it but I don’t think it’ll be early in the game. Therefore, my bet for today is that the game will be a draw at half-time with Dortmund winning by full-time at generous odds of 11/4.
Verdict: Half-time draw/full-time BV09 Borussia Dortmund to win at 11/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk, Hajduk Split, SSC Napoli, AZ Alkmaar.
Recommended bets:
PSV Eindhoven, Hajduk Split, and Omonia Nicosia at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
UEFA Europa League Qualifiers:
Sibir Novosibirsk vs PSV Eindhoven (7) 0-1
BATE Borisov vs Maritimo Funchal (6) 1-0
Paris Saint-Germain vs Maccabi Tel-Aviv (6) 1-0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Tavriya Simferopol (8) -1.5 handicap
CSKA Moscow vs Anorthosis Famagusta (7) 2-0
Rapid Vienna vs Aston Villa (6) 1-1
Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart (5) 1-1
Debreceni VSC vs Litex Lovech (7) 2-1
Omonia Nicosia vs Metalist Kharkiv (7) over 2.5 goals
Vaslui vs LOSC Lille (6) 0-1, draw no bet
AIK Solna vs Levski Sofia (5) 1-2
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Lech Poznan (8) -1.5 handicap
OB Odense vs Motherwell (7) 2-0
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AA Gent (5) both sides to score
Steaua Bucharest vs Grasshoppers Zurich (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Galatasaray vs Karpaty Lviv (6) 2-1
Hajduk Split vs Unirea Urziceni (8) 2-0
Racing Genk vs Porto (6) 1-1
Palermo vs Maribor (7) 2-1
Club Brugge vs Dinamo Minsk (6) 2-1
CSKA Sofia vs The New Saints (5) 2-1
Lausanne Sports vs Lokomotiv Moscow (5) 1-1
PAOK Salonika vs Fenerbahce (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Liverpool vs Trabzonspor (7) 2-0
Celtic vs FC Utrecht (6) 2-1
Poli Timisoara vs Manchester City (6) 1-2
SSC Napoli vs Elfsborg Boras (8) over 2.5 goals
Getafe vs APOEL Nicosia (7) 2-1
Dundee United vs AEK Athens (6) 1-1
AZ Alkmaar vs Aktobe Lento (8) 1-0
Gyori ETO FC vs Dinamo Zagreb (6) 2-1
BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs Qarabagh (8) 2-0
Sturm Graz vs Juventus (5) 0-0
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Brondby (7) 2-1
Villarreal vs Dnepr Mogilev (7) 2-0
Copa Sudamericana:
Guarani Asuncion vs River Plate Montevideo (5) 2-1
Palmeiras vs Vitoria (6) 2-1
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
KR Reykjavik vs Fram Reykjavik (7) over 2.5 goals
Selfoss vs Keflavik (5) 0-1, draw no bet
UMF Grindavik vs FH Hafnarfjordur (7) 1-2
Swedish Superettan:
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Jonkopings Sodra (5) over 2.5 goals
Angelholm vs Syrianska Sodertalje (6)
Falkenberg vs Landskrona BoIS (7)
Orgryte vs Osters (6) under 2.5 goals
GIF Sundsvall vs Ljungskile (7) under 2.5 goals
Swiss Challenge League:
Wil vs Vaduz (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!