Olympique Lyonnais vs Real Madrid
I don't think I've ever seen a UK card so bereft of value! There's only a couple of games that I'll dabble in tonight so I'd strongly recommend staying in continental competitions or keeping punts low.
Today's featured game is the UEFA Champions League encounter at Stade Gerland between Olympique Lyonnais and Real Madrid. Hosts Olympique Lyonnais are one of the most decorated French sides in recent times and have been a constant force in European football throughout although they tend to struggle against the bigger sides. Visitors Real Madrid have won this competition more times than any other club so they know how important it is and although they've struggled domestically to make ends meet, they're still a very capable side.
Olympique Lyonnais have disappointed me this season. They've made some superb acquisitions in summer and yet have failed to really impress. They've conceded more than half of Ligue 1 on their own turf - an average of over a goal per game - and have only scored nineteen goals in twelve games, which isn't particularly impressive for a side that supposedly scores more than they concede. As a result, Lyon have drawn and lost more games than they should have as they labour past sides that they're better than and fail to win convincingly each time. I think there's more issues at the club than are currently visible purely because they've got the individual ability to overcome the majority of their opponents but they could be exposed today against a bigger and better side. Have Lyon convinced in Europe this year? Hm, aside from their 2-1 win at a poor Liverpool side, I've not been convinced. Debreceni VSC aren't in the same class grouping as Lyon and Fiorentina proved a strong test for the French side so it should be interest to see how they square up to one of Europe's biggest clubs.
Visitors Real Madrid have yet to convince me this season too. They're beating sides but not convincingly. I'd say that they've been worse than Lyon in Europe this year but they've also had a harder group, in their defence. They struggled against Olympique de Marseille and yet still hammered three goals past Lyon's bitter rivals in the home and away games. Madrid's problem was dealing with an ageing AC Milan side that beat them once and should have beat them twice with Madrid fortuante to leave Milan with a point. However, Madrid have matured as the season has progressed and their side now looks more like a side rather than just talented individuals, in my opinion. Madrid have scored eleven goals in their last four Primera Liga games so confidence and momentum is very high at the moment, particularly with two of those games being 3-0 away wins, one of which was a particularly tough trip to the Riazor to take on bogey side Deportivo La Coruna. I still don't think Madrid are ready to win this tournament but I do think that they're too good for Lyon and I expect it to show tonight.
Both sides will need their big players playing their best football tonight. Lyon's Lisandro Lopez has been in good form this season but few others have been as consistent as he has in this team so Lyon are looking a little on edge here. Madrid have a wealthy of attacking ability in their squad and most importantly they have the ever-potent Cristiano Ronaldo, the world's best player, a player who can win any game he wishes them to win. I think we're going to see a real gulf in class as a result of this mismatch and Madrid really should outscore hosts Lyon tonight with their ability.
Verdict: Real Madrid to win at 11/10.
Tuesday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
AC Milan vs Manchester United - away win at 17/10.
Hosts AC Milan have been a bogey side for Manchester United over the past few years but I sense a change in the winds. AC Milan's squad is older, more experienced, but slower. Their passing can still be immense on their day but the somewhat wayward and inconsistent performances of midfield maestros Andrea Pirlo and Rino Gattuso (when playing) have left AC Milan looking a tad weak. The loss of Kaka in summer was a massive blow for them and although prodigy Pato has really come of age and will be a potent threat, AC Milan still don't look convincing. They look weak at the back, particularly against pace, and seem unable to keep a clean sheet, which will be a big problem tonight as they're at home. Although there's no doubting the experience and class of hosts AC Milan, I can't see them doing the business against Manchester United tonight because they're simply not playing well.
Visitors Manchester United are typically hitting form right on time. A draw at Aston Villa mid-week may not look much but when consider that United dominated the game despite having 10 men for the majority of the game, you have to begin to notice that United are pushing all the right buttons. Wayne Rooney is on fire at the moment and I think a leaky AC Milan defence are going to have an absolute nightmare against his strength and pace. The Italian sides used to use his inexperience and temperament against him in games like this but he's matured as a player and is finally beginning to look the finished article. Nani has been in inspired form and United welcome back Rio Ferdinand for this game, who will add extra experience at the back when it's needed the most. United will be missing Vidic, Anderson, and Giggs for this trip. I love Vidic but the fact that he's not been playing lately tells me that he won't be missed too much with Brown and Evans playing well in the middle when given their respective opportunities. Giggs hasn't been playing too well of late and although Anderson hasn't been playing, I think United will miss him the most because they absolutely must field a central midfield that are combative and energetic or AC will simply pass their way around them. Fergie sometimes makes the mistake of playing Carrick and Scholes in the middle and this can be absolute suicide against a great passing side like Milan.
Although I'd wait until the line-ups are named, I do favour United here, and not because I'm biased either! United have a very good record against Italian sides in this competition in recent years - it's time they added AC Milan to the list that already has Internazionale and AS Roma (various times!) on it. If United use their pace against AC's unconvincing back line and put in a strong defensive display then I'd expect an away win here. If United play Scholes and Carrick in the middle then I'd probably go for the draw or even a narrow home win.
Verdict: Manchester United to win at 17/10.
Libertad Asuncion vs Blooming Santa Cruz - home win with -1.75 handicap at 9/10.
This bet should really speak for itself! I'm surprised the bookies have given what I'd call good value odds for a game like this but I'll simply chalk this one down to their "early odds" being a tad on the exploratory side.
Libertad Asuncion have already claimed a highly-impressive and morale-boosting 2-0 win at Argentinian newcomers Lanus in their opening Copa Libertadores game. I didn't expect them to do it and fair play to them for doing it so convincingly! Additionally, Libertad travelled to Tacuary just two days later and won 4-0, which impressed me even more. Libertad's application and potency amazes me so I offer them as much praise as I can for that. They're an experienced Copa Libertadores side so they know they must win all their home games, starting tonight. They're on home territory with tremendous momentum and potency in their favour at the moment so it's hard for me to doubt them tonight.
Visitors Blooming Santa Cruz hail from Bolivia, the worst footballing nation on the continent of South America. Bolivian teams have one advantage over other nations and that is their high altitude home games (although Blooming don't even have that!). In away games, they tend to get beaten - heavily. In fact, let's take a look at how fellow Bolivian sides have faired in this competition over the past few years:
Cruzeiro 7 Real Potosi 0 - 2010
Boyaca Chico 2 Aurora Cochabamba 1 - 2009
Deportivo Quito 3 Universitario de Sucre 1 - 2009
Gremio 3 Aurora Cochabamba 0 - 2009
Cruzeiro 2 Universitario de Sucre 0 - 2009
Universidad de Chile 3 Aurora Cochabamba 0 - 2009
Estudiantes De La Plata 1 Universitario de Sucre 0 - 2009
Palmeiras 5 Real Potosi 1 - 2009
Santos 7 San Jose 0 - 2008
San Lorenzo de Almagro 1 Real Potosi 0 - 2008
Cucuta Deportivo 0 Real Potosi 0 - 2008
Caracas 2 Real Potosi 1 - 2008
Guadalajara 2 San Jose 0 - 2008
Cruzeiro 3 Real Potosi 0 - 2008
Atlas 2 La Paz 0 - 2008
Summarised, over the past two years, Bolivian sides have conceded forty-one goals in fifteen games, which is an average of nearly three goals scored against them per away game. The only time a Bolivian side has avoided defeat on the road in the Copa Libertadores in the last two years was a heroic performance from Real Potosi in Colombia where they held Cucuta Deportivo to a 0-0 draw. That's right - the Bolivians got a result because they kept the opponent out, not because they scored themselves! Bolivian sides have lost by two goals or more in ten of their fifteen away games and it's frankly a given in my book that Bolivian sides will lose away games in this competition.
It doesn't help poor Blooming that they're not even playing domestic football at the moment to gain some match practice - the Bolivian league isn't running at the moment! Blooming have already lost their opening Copa Libertadores game at home to Peru's Universitario Lima. Universitario are a presentable side with some good players but they're not good enough to win away from home in this competition unless they're playing poor opponents, which is exactly what happened. Blooming have spirit but they have nothing else, which I feel sympathise with them for but this is a ruthless game after all!
Overall, there's a real class difference tonight and I'd be astounded if it didn't show. I think I've been conservative by only backing the hosts at -1.75 as they're capable of beating the -2.75 and -3.75 handicap in this game although I'll leave the decision-making up to yourselves. The only reason I've held back is because Libertad aren't as good as their recent results convey and that can often backfire against easier opponents. Either way, I cannot see a result other than a home win here tonight so climb aboard, guys!
Verdict: Libertad Asuncion to beat the -1.75 goal handicap at 9/10.
Peterborough United vs Ipswich Town - away win at 13/10.
Peterborough United are playing like a relegated side and I honestly believe they already are. They've got a couple of good players but they're a League One side in essence - only Darren Ferguson gelled them into anything more and now he's gone, they look considerably ordinary. Peterborough have won once in their last nine games, losing seven games and drawing once. They've scored a meager one goal in their last five games and have lost the four games that they failed to score in too! Ultimately, they concede too many goals and don't score enough goals - that's a recipe for disaster against any opponent and I can't see how that would differentiate tonight.
Visitors Ipswich Town impress me but not enough on the road in all honesty. They've only won twice away from home in the Championship all season so do approach this bet with caution. However, what cannot be denied is that they're playing good football now and are starting to gain better results from it. They won their last away game last match at Queens Park Rangers, which was impressive despite a lack of form from the hosts entering that game. They make sides work hard to take anything of them and although Ipswich don't score as many as they could or should, they do tend to pop up with goals when required. Ipswich carry good momentum into this game and they're taking on demoralised and goal-shy hosts so you have to feel that there's potentially value in the away win, particularly as Ipswich are capable of being much higher in the Championship table.
Verdict: Ipswich Town to win at 13/10.
Recommended bets:
Everton, Manchester United, and Libertad Asuncion -1.75 at 8/1.
Port Talbot Town, Real Madrid, Colo Colo, and Libertad Asuncion -1.75 at 6/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Champions League:
Olympique Lyonnais vs Real Madrid (7) over 2.5 goals
AC Milan vs Manchester United (6) 1-2
UEFA Europa League:
Everton vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (9) 2-0
Copa Libertadores:
Colo Colo vs Deportivo Italia (8) 2-0
Libertad Asuncion vs Blooming Santa Cruz (9) -1.75 handicap
English Premier League:
Stoke City vs Manchester City (6) 1-1
English Championship:
Blackpool vs Middlesbrough (6)
Bristol City vs Leicester City (5)
Cardiff City vs West Bromwich Albion (6) over 2.5 goals
Derby County vs Preston North End (5)
Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield United (4)
Peterborough United vs Ipswich Town (6)
Plymouth Argyle vs Swansea City (6)
Scunthorpe United vs Barnsley (6)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Doncaster Rovers (6)
Queens Park Rangers vs Watford (5)
English League One:
Carlisle United vs Huddersfield Town (5)
Yeovil Town vs Colchester United (5)
Leeds United vs Walsall (6)
English League Two:
Hereford United vs Aldershot Town (7)
Lincoln City vs Accrington Stanley (5)
Morecambe vs Burton Albion (6)
Singporean S-League:
Young Lions vs Geylang United (6) 1-1
Albirex Niigata vs Tampines Rovers (5) 2-1
Welsh Premier League:
Neath Athletic vs Aberystwyth Town (4) 0-1
Port Talbot Town vs Newi Cefn Druids (9) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!
Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Madrid
Today's featured game is the Primera Liga encounter between Deportivo La Coruna and Real Madrid. Riazor is not a ground that Real Madrid like to play at with no victory there in the past seventeen years. La Coruna is a nightmarish place to play anyway without that kind of record over your head but Real Madrid know that this is truly their bogey ground.
Hosts Deportivo La Coruna will have more confidence entering this game than any momentum could give them, in my opinion. What can gift a side better confidence than knowing that one of the best sides in the country continues to fail there? Deportivo have beaten Madrid for the last six years running at Riazor and haven't lost here in seventeen years.
We all know that Deportivo La Coruna are a good side already, particularly at home regardless of their record of head-to-heads against Real Madrid. Deportivo have only lost here twice in ten Primera Liga games this season, winning six times and drawing the remaining two games. Deportivo are not a prolific side but there's only a handful of sides that have conceded less goals at home in the Primera Liga than they have, which is naturally what makes them such a difficult side to play against. Deportivo have won two out of their last three games and only lost once in their last five so they do have some momentum to bring into this game anyway as well as their high motivation and home advantage so the hosts are looking a threat for this game already.
Visitors Real Madrid have won twice in their past four games and are gradually beginning to look a little frail. They've only won four out of nine away games this season and score a surprisingly few number of goals on the road, tending to focus more on keeping clean sheets than scoring goals which isn't really a very Real Madrid-esque philosophy! Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if Pellegrini was sacked for even suggesting such a notion at all! As the lengthy season drags on you need to have a strong squad and rest players. Madrid don't have a strong squad - they have strong individuals and the only two that are doing the business for them is Ronaldo and Higuain, both of which are missing for this game. I hate to break this to some people but Ronaldo is carrying this side with his unbelievable ability so without him they tend to struggle.
Real Madrid simply haven't been convincing of late, however, which is what I suspected would happen at somepoint this season. They've failed to score in both of their last two away games, which are rather ironic games to have failed to win, in my opinion. They've had two trips to the Basque country where they've taken on Osasuna and Athletic Club de Bilbao, drawing 0-0 in Pamplona and losing 1-0 in Bilbao. Those two venues are very difficult to play in because the hosts are physical, motivated, and never say die. Although La Coruna is some distance from the Basque country, the northern Spanish sides tend to adopt a similar approach and Deportivo are no exception. This game will be as tough (if not tougher) than their previous two away games so I really think that they're going to struggle tonight. I simply cannot see where their goals will come from but I can see Deportivo breaking through their defence at least once in this game.
With or without the convincing head-to-head statistics, you have to feel that the value is with the home win or laying the visitors today!
Verdict: Lay Real Madrid at 4/5 or back Deportivo La Coruna to win outright at 4/11.
Saturday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United - home win at 5/6.
Hosts Wellington Phoenix have had their good run of form drastically cut short of late with two consecutive defeats. However, it's worth noting that both of those defeats were on the road, which is where Wellington Phoenix are at their weakest. Wellington have won their last two home games consecutively and have scored six goals doing so, which is an average of three goals scored per home game. Wellington already have a strong home record with just one defeat in eleven games, winning five times and drawing five times so any side travelling here knows that they'll have a fight on their hands. Wellington average scoring just under two goals per home game in all eleven games and only Perth Glory has conceded as few goals as they have at home in the A-League this season. Ultimately, despite the lack of momentum, Wellington are a good home side and should be back to normal today.
Visitors Adelaide United seem to cause their own problems endlessly by conceding too easily and not scoring enough goals. They're the lowest scoring away side in the A-League with an average of nearly a goal scored for every two games they play. They've already lost six out of eleven away games this season despite being one of the lowest conceding away sides in the A-League. Adelaide have lost three out of their last five games now and haven't won in their past six games so momentum is just a word from their past currently.
Overall, Wellington Phoenix are a reliable home side and enjoying scoring goals so even a watertight Adelaide defence should concede in this game and I just don't believe that they'd have enough in the tank to equalise, thus leaving us with a good value home win!
Verdict: Wellington Phoenix to win at 5/6.
Independiente Medellin vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota - home win at 3/4.
Hosts Independiente Medellin get a nice easy start to their new campaign by taking on the side that ran them closest to the top spot in the original group of sixteen - Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota. Reigning champions Independiente Medellin owe a great deal of their success in their last campaign to their phenomenal home record with seven wins in nine games, drawing once, and losing once. They'll be looking to recreate that kind of form to retain their crown and it has to start today against title rivals Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota.
Visitors Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota were also traditionally strong at home last season but had a somewhat haphazard record on the road with three wins, three draws, and three defeats from nine games. Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota have only beaten Independiente Medellin once in their last six meetings at either ground so they know how difficult this game is. However, I don't personally feel that there's a harder away trip for any side than taking on the reigning champions at their own ground on the opening day of a new campaign so we could see some nerves here.
Ultimately, we're in Colombia so we're going to see some cards here. Independiente Medellin have won two and drawn once out of the last three home games they've played against tonight's opponents and have scored two goals in all three games so I expect them to score one or two tonight too! Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota have only scored here twice in their last three visits, both of which were on their last visit in a 2-2 draw. I expect the reigning champions to make a good start to this campaign and they've got the home advantage to help them to do it so we should see three points on the home win tonight.
Verdict: Independiente Medellin to win at 3/4.
Liverpool vs Bolton Wanderers - lay Liverpool at 17/10.
Liverpool's problems are well-documented; need I go into them? No Torres and no Benayoun leaves such pressure on Gerrard that even their talismanic midfielder is feeling it. His performance against Wolverhampton Wanderers mid-week was one of the worst I've ever seen from him and that's difficult to say. Liverpool managed just one shot on target against relegation-threatened Wolverhampton Wanderers and that simply isn't good enough. I expect Liverpool to approach this game in the same way that they approached the Wolverhampton Wanderers game and to gain a similar, if not identical, result today.
Why? Well, Bolton Wanderers look rejuvenated under Owen Coyle. They look more organised, more incisive, and the same old awkward bastards that everyone used to hate playing against. This is exactly the kind of side that Liverpool do not want to be facing right now. Bolton haven't conceded a goal in their last two games and put in an impressive display away to Arsenal the game before that by taking a two goal lead before eventually succumbing to a 4-2 defeat. If Bolton take that kind of advantage against Liverpool today then I can only see Liverpool drawing this game at best because they're not good enough to score four goals currently. Bolton are going to set their stall out here as being tough to beat so the onus is on Liverpool today to break them down.
Can they do it? I just can't see it. I think there's more value in laying Liverpool today because they're not good enough to break sides down convincingly. Bolton are one of those sides and they're even more motivated than normal so you have to fancy their chances of ending their dismal record at Anfield today.
Verdict: Lay Liverpool at 17/10.
Leeds United vs Colchester United - lay Leeds United at 6/5.
Now here are some odds that confuse me! Not only have Leeds not won in their past three League One games but they're been bloody unconvincing in all three games, most notably in their 3-0 humbling at Swindon Town mid-week. Leeds now face one of the division's better sides but with the knowledge that they have the all-important FA Cup replay with Tottenham Hotspur on the forthcoming wednesday so what does boss Simon Grayson do? He knows the club could really use the financial boost of a good cup run and he knows his side are well-placed to achieve promotion this season so dare we dream that he'll field a weakened squad for this game? I think he might just do that. Leeds have only failed to win four games at home this season out of thirteen but a lack of momentum and a lot of diverted attention could mean that we see them slip up yet again today.
Visitors Colchester United may have a poor away record when it comes to actual wins but they remain one of the division's better sides and have only lost three away games all season. Only today's hosts Leeds United have conceded less away goals than Colchester United have this season so the visitors are quite the tough side to take on. Colchester have only lost once in their last five games, winning three times and drawing once, so the visitors do have some good momentum to bring into this game. Colchester have nothing to prepare for next week so they can and will field a full-strength squad today and I think they've got enough ability in their team to do some damage to a distracted Leeds United side today.
With the above in mind, it's a tad baffling why the bookies rate Leeds' chances so highly today. Don't get me wrong - if they turn it on then they'll beat anyone in this division at any time but the fact is that they've lost two consecutive games in League One and haven't won in three and have to prepare for a tough tie with Tottenham next week. Therefore, the value has to be in laying Leeds today, I think.
Verdict: Lay Leeds United at 6/5.
Northampton Town vs Burton Albion - home win at 5/6.
Northampton Town have gone on a great run of form lately and are unbeaten in eight League Two games. They've won four times and drawn four times and have displayed a resilience in their team along the way that I hadn't seen in them this season. Northampton have conceded just once in their past six games so their defence is looking mean, keen, and extremely alert! It helps them massively because their goalscoring is sporadic at best but the two forces combined to tend to mean that Northampton have more success than failure, naturally.
Visitors Burton Albion have now won two consecutive games so have gathered some momentum ahead of this game. However, Burton have conceded ten goals in their past five games, which is an average of two goals conceded per game, which is why Burton tend to struggle in the first place. Goalscoring comes naturally to Burton but conceding comes far more naturally, unfortunately for them. The two sides that Burton have beaten lately are Torquay United and Lincoln City, two sides that you'd expect Burton to give a good game to if not beat anyway. However, today Burton take on a side with actual ability as well as a resolute defence so they're going to have to work immensely hard to take anything from this game, particularly with six defeats from twelve away games already this season and an average of conceding nearly two goals per game on the road all this year.
Overall, we have one very much in-form side that are defending like masters and one sporadic side that concede too many goals. I'm staying with consistency for this one and calling the value on a home win.
Verdict: Northampton Town to win at 5/6.
Port Vale vs Hereford United - home win at 5/6.
Port Vale don't have the most convincing of home records with just three wins in twelve games this season but what they do have in their arsenal is the ability to keep a clean sheet. They managed it at a massively in-form and potent Rochdale side last match and also in the home encounter with Macclesfield Town the game before. Port Vale are actually unbeaten in their last five League Two games with two wins and three draws. Port Vale's problem is scoring goals, unfortunately. Few sides break them down which is why only Notts County and Rotherham United have conceded less goals than Port Vale have this season. However, Port Vale simply have to find the net more to stand any chance of progressing as a club. The momentum they've gathered of late will assist them, as will their home advantage. If Port Vale take the lead then they can win this game easily because sides do find playing against Port Vale very difficult indeed so I think there's some value in taking Port Vale already.
However, I take a lot of comfort from the fact that they're hosting Hereford United, a side that has already lost eight out of thirteen away games this season. They average conceding nearly two goals per away game and have lost four out of their last five games, scoring just two goals along the way. Hereford have big problems defensively and this isn't aided by their paltry goalscoring record either. Ultimately Hereford are not a good away side and I see nothing here that is going to change that today.
My biggest concern is Port Vale growing some balls and scoring goals. If they score, they really should have this game in the bag today.
Verdict: Port Vale to win at 5/6.
AC Oulu vs Jaro Pietarsaari - home win at 5/6.
Newly-promoted AC Oulu get their first taste of Veikkausliiga opponents by hosting Jaro Pietarsaari in the Liiga Cup. I'm not going to lie to you; I'll be extremely surprised if AC Oulu stay up this season. They're simply not a very good outfit at all. However, it's their first game amongst the big boys of Finnish football and they'll be keen to make an impact so they'll be highly-motivated. AC Oulu have the advantage of their home support and should make Jaro work hard today.
The above isn't enough on its own for me to take the home win but what does convince me is the length of Jaro Pietarsaari's problems. For example, Sara, Haanpaa, Vaganov, Aho, Sarajarvi, Meyer, and Matrone are all missing this game for various reasons. What this means in black and white is that Jaro are missing a lot of defenders, which should help an AC Oulu side that drastically need whatever assistance that they can get. Jaro also lost a lot of players over the break - Tanska, Portin, Emet, Hyyrynen, Kojola, and Koivisto. Jaro have brought in some replacements but frankly it's not enough to assist them this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see them battling relegation themselves with such issues in their squad.
Although AC Oulu are undoubtedly only a match for Jaro when the visitors have a massively depleted squad, this is certainly one of those times. AC Oulu will not be more motivated to face Jaro and will not have a better chance to beat them so I think the home win is worth a sly punt today.
Verdict: AC Oulu to win at 5/6.
Cittadella vs Ancona - home win at 6/5.
Cittadella are a strong home side with just one defeat at home in Serie B all season. They've only been beaten once in their last four games, winning once, and drawing twice, so they've got some momentum under their belts at least. Their home form of late has been encouraging with a draw against Brescia and a win against Torino so the hosts do have some momentum for this encounter today. Cittadella have won four out of their ten home games in Serie B this year, which isn't great, but it's enough for the foundation of this bet. Only a handful of sides have conceded less home goals than Cittadella have this season so it's certainly wise not to understimate these guys! Cittadella enjoy their home games and that has shown of late - I expect them to put in a similar stint against fourth-placed Ancona today too.
Visitors Ancona bizarrely have a very poor away record with seven defeats in eleven games. They've not won any of their last three Serie B games, drawing once and losing twice. Ancona score about par for the course with their goalscoring ability on the road but they concede far too heavily to ever cause sides problems away from home. A lack of momentum caused by their three-game winless run certainly won't help them ahead of this difficult trip and the fact that Ancona have lost their last three away games consecutively without even scoring a goal will certainly be playing on their minds, particularly as they've averaged conceding over two goals per game. Ancona were embarassed by bottom club Salernitana 3-0 in their last away game and then by little Mantova the game before that so why not Cittadella today?
Ancona are the better of these two sides but they're not showing it at the moment so I fancy Cittadella to cause an upset today.
Verdict: Cittadella to win at 6/5.
CD Nacional vs Porto - lay Porto at 10/11.
Nobody but CD Nacional has come to this ground in Madeira this season and won so Porto will be aware that they've got a difficult game ahead of them. CD Nacional have won four times and drawn three times out of their seven home games in the Liga Sagres this season. They average scoring just shy of two goals per home game and are generally a force to be reckoned with. Their recent form has been somewhat poor with two consecutive defeats but it's worth pointing out that those two games were both away to giants Sporting Clube de Lisboa and league leaders Sporting Braga so perhaps they can be forgiven! CD Nacional are very much a home side and have already held Sporting Clube de Lisboa to a draw here this season so CD Nacional know that they can stop the big sides if they play to their best.
Porto have only won once here in their last three visits, losing the other two games. Not only that but Porto have been far from convincing this season as any of their fans will testify, hence the persistent booing. I think the fans are a tad harsh on a side that has dominated this league in recent years with limited resources but that's just my perspective. Porto have struggled in the league lately moreso than ever with a nervy win at home to Uniao de Leiria (3-2) and a disappointing draw at home to defensively-minded Pacos de Ferreira. Porto appear unable to break sides down as well as they used to be able to, which is understandable as they've lost the masterful duo of midfield maestro Lucho Gonzalez and the lethal Lisandro Lopez in attack. Porto have to knuckle down and get on with it but they don't seem very inclined to do that currently, which is surprising and somewhat disappointing.
With Porto only having won once in their past three Liga Sagres games, it's hard to see them taking too much confidence in to this game. They've failed to win four out of seven away games already this season and although they don't concede many on the road, they don't score many either. I think all of the above plays right into the hands of CD Nacional so there does look to be value in laying Porto for their trip to Madeira today.
Verdict: Lay Porto at 10/11.
Hamilton Academicals vs Celtic - lay Celtic at 2/1.
I can't substantiate this bet anywhere near as much as I'd like to be frankly the value is too good to overlook. Celtic have won just once in their past four Premier League games and have been very unconvincing in all of them. They've even managed a draw with lowly Falkirk at home before losing at Hibs in their last game in a galling 2-1 defeat where Hibs stole the winner at the end of the game. Celtic are going from bad to worse at the moment so I think there's more value going against them than for them.
Unfortunately, they're facing Hamilton Academicals. Well, it's unfortunate for me, that is, because if they were facing a better side then I'd be sticking a lot more on it. However, Hamilton are a pretty atrocious side which is also partially why the odds are good on this outcome. Hamilton's 0-0 draw with Kilmarnock last match will probably count as a win in their books so their momentum should be pretty good. They have a poor home record and a nightmare head-to-head record against Celtic but they're not likely to have a better chance of getting one over on Celtic than they do today. Celtic are too leaky in defence at the moment and aren't scoring enough goals so I think it's worth a cheeky bet to lay Celtic today, particularly as Hamilton are a very resilient side.
Verdict: Lay Celtic at 2/1.
Accmulator fodder - Armed Forces FC, Cardiff City, Milton Keynes Dons, Norwich City, Aldershot Town, Notts County, Girondins de Bordeaux, Bayern Munich, PAOK Salonika, Guadalajara, SL Benfica, Hibs, Barcelona, Hercules Alicante, Neath Athletic.
Recommended bet - Northampton Town, Norwich City, PAOK Salonika, Bayern Munich, and laying Real Madrid at 7/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
African Nations:
Nigeria vs Algeria (5) 1-1
Asian Champions League:
Da Nang vs Muang Thong United (5) 1-1
Armed Forces FC vs Sriwijaya FC Palembang (9) -1.75 handicap
Karama vs Al Wahda (6) 1-0
Argentinian Primera Division:
Tigre vs Chacarita Juniors (6) 1-1
Velez Sarsfeld vs Colon de Santa Fe (8) 2-1
Racing Club Avellaneda vs Rosario Central (5) 1-1
Atletico Tucuman vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (7) over 2.5 goals
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United (7) 2-1
Brisbane Roar vs Sydney FC (6) 0-1
North Queensland Fury vs Newcastle Jets (7) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Club Brugge vs Westerlo (8) 2-0
Roeselare vs Racing Genk (7) 0-1
Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge (6) 1-1
Charleroi vs Lokeren (6) 1-0
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Brussels vs Standaard Wetteren (7)
Beveren vs Oostende (8)
Turnhout vs Boussu Dour Borinage (6)
KVSK United vs Tubize (6)
Tournai vs Antwerp (8)
Colombian Futbol Profesional:
America de Cali vs Atletico Huila (6) 1-1
Millonarios Bogota vs Atletico Nacional de Medellin (5) 1-1
Independiente Medellin vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Cypriot Division 1:
Omonia Nicosia vs Apollon Limassol (8) 2-1
Aris Limassol vs Ermis (5) 1-1
A.E.Paphos vs Anorthosis Famagusta (6) 0-1
English Premier League:
Birmingham City vs Tottenham Hotspur (6) 1-1
Fulham vs Aston Villa (6) 1-1
Hull City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (6) 2-1
Liverpool vs Bolton Wanderers (5) 0-0
West Ham United vs Blackburn Rovers (7) 1-1
Wigan Athletic vs Everton (7) over 2.5 goals
Burnley vs Chelsea (9) -1.75 handicap
English Championship:
Derby County vs Nottingham Forest (6) at least one red card in this game
Cardiff City vs Doncaster Rovers (8)
Coventry City vs Blackpool (6)
Crystal Palace vs Peterborough United (7)
Middlesbrough vs Bristol City (6)
Preston North End vs Ipswich Town (5)
Queens Park Rangers vs Scunthorpe United (6) over 2.5 goals
Reading vs Barnsley (5)
Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth Argyle (7)
Watford vs Swansea City (7)
West Bromwich Albion vs Sheffield United (6)
Leicester City vs Newcastle United (5)
English League One:
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Millwall (5)
Bristol Rovers vs Wycombe Wanderers (7)
Carlisle United vs Leyton Orient (6)
Charlton Athletic vs Tranmere Rovers (7)
Gillingham vs Walsall (7)
Leeds United vs Colchester United (5)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Exeter City (8)
Norwich City vs Hartlepool United (9)
Oldham Athletic vs Brentford (7)
Southampton vs Stockport County (8)
Southend United vs Swindon Town (6)
Yeovil Town vs Huddersfield Town (6)
English League Two:
Aldershot Town vs Grimsby Town (8)
Cheltenham Town vs Darlington (6)
Crewe Alexandra vs Bournemouth (6)
Lincoln City vs Dagenham & Redbridge (7)
Morecambe vs Chesterfield (6)
Northampton Town vs Burton Albion (8)
Notts County vs Barnet (9)
Port Vale vs Hereford United (6)
Rotherham United vs Macclesfield Town (7)
Shrewsbury Town vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Torquay United vs Bradford City (4)
Finnish Liiga Cup:
AC Oulu vs Jaro Pietarsaari (5) 1-0
French Ligue 1:
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Boulogne (9) -1.75 handicap
Stade Rennais vs Grenoble Foot (8) 2-0
LOSC Lille vs Racing Club Lens (7) over 2.5 goals
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Lorient (6) 1-1
AS Monaco vs OGC Nice (9) 3-1
Le Mans vs Toulouse (7) 0-0
Montpellier HSC vs Olympique de Marseille (6) 1-1
French Ligue 2:
Vannes OC vs Guingamp (5)
German Bundesliga:
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Werder Bremen (5) 2-1
Eintracht Frankurt vs Koln (7) 1-0
Hertha BSC Berlin vs VFL Bochum (6) 1-1
Bayern Munich vs FSV Mainz 05 (8) under 2.5 goals
Hannover 96 vs Nurnberg (5) 0-0
Schalke 04 vs Hoffenheim (8) 1-0
German Bundesliga 2:
Augsburg vs Arminia Bielefeld (6)
Hansa Rostock vs Union Berlin (6)
Greek Super League:
Iraklis vs Kavala (6) under 2.5 goals
PAS Giannina vs Larissa (6) 1-1
PAOK Salonika vs Atromitos (9) 3-1
Greek B Ethniki:
Rhodos vs Anagennisi Karditsas (6)
International Friendly:
Jamaica vs Canada (6) 1-1
Italian Serie A:
Bari vs Palermo (7) 0-0
SSC Napoli vs Genoa (7) over 2.5 goals
Italian Serie B:
Cittadella vs Ancona (6)
Mantova vs Crotone (6)
Sassuolo vs Salernitana (8)
Triestina vs Piacenza (6)
Mexican Primera Division:
Jaguares vs Tigres UANL (5) 1-1
Monterrey vs Cruz Azul (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Guadalajara vs Estudiantes Tecos (8) 2-0
Pachuca vs Atlante (7) 2-1
San Luis vs Morelia (7) 1-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam (5) 2-1
NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo (7) 1-0
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen (7) 1-0
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen (6) 1-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Naval de Maio vs Belenenses (6) under 2.5 goals
Uniao de Leiria vs Olhanense (7) 0-0
CD Nacional vs Porto (6) 1-1
SL Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes (8) over 2.5 goals
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Estoril vs Oliveirense (6)
Scottish Premier League:
Hamilton Academicals vs Celtic (3) 1-1
Aberdeen vs Motherwell (7) 2-1
Hibs vs St.Mirren (8) 2-0
Kilmarnock vs Dundee United (6) 0-1
Rangers vs Falkirk (8) 2-1
St.Johnstone vs Hearts (6) 1-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Espanyol vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (7) 1-1
Sporting Gijon vs Barcelona (8) under 2.5 goals
Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Madrid (6) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Hercules Alicante vs Castellon (8) under 2.5 goals
Real Sociedad vs Las Palmas (7)
Huesca vs Elche (6)
Levante vs Villarreal II (6)
Albacete vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (6)
Cartagena vs Girona (7)
Spanish Segunda B:
Group 1:
Osasuna II vs Sestao River Club (7)
Barakaldo vs Palencia (5)
Group 3:
Barcelona II vs Gava (8)
Valencia II vs Sabadell (7)
Mallorca II vs Benidorm (5)
Turkish Super Lig:
Istanbul BB vs Kasimpasa (5) 2-1
Diyarbakirspor vs Trabzonspor (6) 0-1
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Deportivo Italia vs Yaracuyanos (8) 2-1
Welsh Premier League:
Newtown vs Carmarthen Town (6) 1-2
Welshpool Town vs Haverfordwest County (5) 0-1
Neath Athletic vs Newi Cefn Druids (8) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!
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