Real Madrid vs Valencia CF

Today’s featured game after a bleak friday sees us visit the Santiago Bernabeu for the clash of Real Madrid and Valencia CF. Atypically, you could be forgiven for expecting a great encounter between these two big names but I don’t expect much from Valencia CF tonight, in all honesty, as I don’t rate them as highly as the bookies seemingly do nowadays.

The first obstacle Real Madrid have to overcome is their horrendous 5-0 drubbing at Barcelona earlier this week. There wasn’t much Madrid could do about Barcelona as when a side like Barcelona plays well, they win, simply put. Barcelona were a class above Madrid in that game and deserve all the plaudits they received for such a victory.

However, Madrid have Mourinho, the perfect manager for getting into players’ heads and if anyone can bring a side away from that demoralising result then it’s him. Let’s also not lose sight of the fact that Barcelona and Madrid are light years ahead of the other sides in Spain so I’m not going to read a massive amount into the defeat at Barcelona other than to say that the Primera Liga title is now Barcelona’s to lose. In a way, this takes some pressure off Madrid as they’re no longer league leaders, which may aid them in returning to their attacking ways tonight. Madrd have won six out of six at home this season with an average of nearly four goals scored per game. On top of that, Madrid have only conceded three goals along the way so they have to be given their deserved respect today. Madrid have won their last three home games against Valencia respectively and have won four out of their last five meetings between the two clubs. I’d make a case for Valencia bringing a weaker side to face Madrid than they’ve brought in many years so I can’t see that record changing today.

It doesn’t help Valencia’s somewhat limited squad that they’re having a mini-crisis with injuries. They’re missing goalkeeper Cesar and his deputy Moya for this game, which spells disaster for the long shots of Ronaldo, which are fairly unstoppable as it is! Valencia also miss Mathieu and Navarro in defence, not to mention Vicente in midfield, so Valencia are going to struggle defending here en mass. Defence has been a strongpoint of Valencia’s on the road this season so it may hurt them even more here because they don’t score as many on the road as they do at home, although you can be sure that Mata and Soldado will be keen to score against the club that brought them up! Valencia haven’t won in three consecutive away games in the Primera Liga and I really don’t see how that’ll change tonight either.

If Carvalho wasn’t missing for Madrid then I’d handicap the hosts here because the price is very good value. However, I’m going to go for the more obvious home win at 1/2. 1/2 isn’t generally odds that I get involved in because it’s short but the bookies rate Valencia too highly, in my opinion – this side is much shorter on stars nowadays and I would have expected 1/3 here. Valencia missing goalkepeers and defenders for this game is utter suicide and although they can probably score against a fairly demoralised Madrid side, I thoroughly expect a Madrid win, especially as they’ve already indcated the importance of it by stating that Ronaldo will play despite not being 100% fit.

Team news:

Real Madrid miss Carvalho, Sergio, Higuain, Canales, Kaka, and Gago

Valencia CF miss Cesar, Moya, Mathieu, Navarro, Vicente, Feghouli, Topal, Fernandes, and Albelda is doubtful.

Verdict: Real Madrid to win at 1/2.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Saturday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Estudiantes De La Plata vs Argentinos Juniors – HT/FT Draw/HW at 14/5.

The odds alone indicate the hefty risk involved in this bet but I like it nonetheless. Estudiantes have to win this game – there’s no other way around it for them. Argentinos Juniors, however, have already qualified for the Copa Libertadores and thus this game means nothing to them. The problem is that Argentinos Juniors are not an attacking side when they have to be so why they’d attack when they don’t have to is beyond me. Regrettably, Argentinos Juniors are pretty damn good at defending – they can keep most sides out in this division on their day, which is fortunate as the number of key attacking players that they sold after winning the last campaign has left their attack somewhat predictable. Argentinos have only conceded once in their last five games, winning four times along the way so they’re clearly relishing the lack of pressure surrounding their games and thus I fear for Estudiantes tonight. Estudiantes are the better side but to break down Argentinos is difficult, at best. The only way they’re going to be able to do it is via Juan Sebastian Veron because he’s the most gifted playmaker in Argentina currently, despite his advancing years. If he turns it on then I fancy Estudiantes to get their much-needed goal but ether way, I don’t envision them scoring early here so we could be in for quite the tedious game tonight.

I’ve looked at Estudiantes winning to nil and the outright win and under 2.5 goals but the odds don’t appeal to me for any of those bets. However, this game being a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time appeals to me because Argetinos are playing really well currently and are hard to break down but Estudiantes have to win and at home, I expect them to achieve the win eventually. Therefore, my call is for there to be a draw at half-time and a home win by full-time at long odds of 14/5.

Verdict: HT/FT Draw/HW at 14/5.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge - away win at 5/4.

Statistics don’t favour my call here greatly so I’m hoping it’s one that has slipped under the radar.

Cercle Brugge generally don’t travel well and their record of just two wins in eight away games this season backs that up quite well, which is largely because they’ve only scored five goals on the road during those games, which isn’t enough. However, there has been a dramatic improvement in their football style since they brought some very promising youngsters in from Sporting Clube de Lisboa on loan (Reynaldo, Renato Neto, and Owusu in particular) and Cercle are playing good football as a result. This has only been particularly evident of late but a win at illustrious local rivals Club Brugge demonstrated their capabilities all too well so I don’t think Cercle Brugge should be as long as they are here.

The other side of the coin is that Charleroi are terrible. Some sides are bottom of their respective league tables because they’re unlucky or because sides above them have been playing well. However, Charleroi are bottom of the table because they’re a genuine mess. They can concede heavily against any side in this division and are really struggling on a disciplinary front too. They’ve lost four consecutive games ahead of this encounter and have lost six out of nine at home already this season, bagging just five goals along the way whilst conceding nearly two goals per home game. They’ve failed to score in two out of their last three home games and I don’t see how that’ll improve with Brazilian midfielder Ederson suspended for today’s game, as is youngster Fabris. Ex-Honka Espoo striker Vuorinen hasn’t had the desired effect in attack since joining the club and indeed, all Charleroi strikers are struggling and should continue that run today without Ederson in midfield. Charleroi’s defence is terrible so I expect them to at least concede here and given how many they tend to concede, I have to give Cercle Brugge a real shout here.

Amusingly, Cercle Brugge have won two out of their last three visits to face Charleroi despite generally struggling away from home so hopefully the omens stay strong for this game. Cercle Brugge are a better side than Charleroi and play better football basically – with that in mind, I have to take the away win at 5/4.

Verdict: Cercle Brugge to win at 5/4.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

A.E.Paphos vs AEK Larnaca - away win at 9/10.

A.E.Paphos are steadily getting worse, year by year. It’s a shame really – this club did well enough to get into European football a few years back but they’re a long, long way from that now. They’re lacking quality all over the park barring pacey Estonian attacker Ats Purje and that lack of quality was highlighted mid-week with a hard-fought 4-3 victory over PAEEK in the Cypriot Cup, which should really have been a routine home win. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that only A.E.Paphos and Alki are yet to win a home game in this division, especially with Paphos only just managing to score a goal per home game on average. Paphos fans must be quite frustrated by their team though – they were motivated against the bigger Cypriot sides but have lost at home to lowly Alki and Enosis Neon Paralimni along the way. I’d be more way of this bet if AEK Larnaca were a “top side” in this division but they’re not – yet.

A big club they most certainly are, however. It’s good to see AEK back where they belong and playing well too. AEK have their former Eredivisie players to thank largely for their lofty perch in the table and they’ve now won five out of their last six games in all competitions. They’ve won at AEL Limassol along the way and annihlated giants Anorthosis Famagusta 3-0 in their last match so confidence is high here and why not? They’ve got a lot going for them and their attacking style of football is proving popular, although I personally feel that this club has another level to reach yet. Momentum, quality, and ability all favours the newly-promoted visitors here and I do too, especially with the hosts seemingly being content with being sitting duck currently. 9/10 on the away win is decent value but I’d leave it if the odds drop - no newly-promoted should be shorter than this away from home.

Verdict: AEK Larnaca to win at 9/10.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Coventry City vs Middlesbrough - home win at 23/20.

Coventry have been impressive at home this season, which has surprised me, to be honest. They’re a big club but they’ve been lacking for a while, in my opinion. Nonetheless, five wins in nine home games whilst scoring fifteen goals along the way is a pretty good record and is the predominant reason behind Coventry being sat happily in sixth place in the Championship table currently. They’ve got another level to reach yet too with King and Eastwood yet to consistently show their quality in attack so it should be interesting to see how Coventry finish this season. The experience of Gary McSheffery and Lee Carsley is proving invaluable to the side and emerging Icelandic midfielder Gunnarsson is playing well too so Coventry do have quite a lot going for them, especially with former England U21 international Martin Cranie in defence. Coventry were on a barren run recently but they’ve turned it around by winning back-to-back games at home to Burnley and away against Scunthorpe United, both of which were won without Coventry conceding a goal so confidence is high and they should deliver today.

Middlesbrough’s new manager Tony Mowbray will eventually get his side playing proper football but I’ve not seen it yet, which is fair enough – he’s not been there long! Indeed, I don’t see how anyone could have played well against Hull in their last match given the horrendous conditions! However, the two games prior to that were lacklustre, poor defeats in which Middlesbrough failed to score. In McDonald, Kink, Boyd, and Lita, Mowbray has the potential to unleash one of the best attacks in the division but he has to find the right combination there before Boro can begin the climb away from the drop zone. I often find that Boro lack leadership and experience at the back (there’s only McManus there, really!) and because they don’t have a set partnership in attack, they don’t often come back from when they fall behind, which is quite often with the above in mind so it’s a catch twenty-two scenario, really! Mowbray has a lot of work to do here and good luck to him but I don’t envision them getting a result at the arena today.

The odds on Coventry seem a tad generous with the above in mind so my call is the home win at 23/20.

Verdict: Coventry City to win at 23/20.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Derby County vs Norwich – over 2.5 goals at 3/4.

No secret here – just two sides playing very well and scoring goals for fun! Four out of Norwich’s last six games have gone over 2.5 goals and they’ve just thumped bitter rivals Ipswich 4-1 so confidence is high and they should give Derby a good game today as a result. Derby are the better side between these two, in my opinion, and they’re also a consistent force when playing at home. They don’t make a habit of games going over 2.5 goals but they’ve done so for two consecutive games due to lapses so they should see another over 2.5 goals game against a good opponent today.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Montpellier HSC vs Olympique Lyonnais - away win with draw no bet at 4/5.

I can’t believe how generous the odds are on Lyon here. They’ve not had a great start to their Ligue 1 campaign whereas Montpellier have played reasonably well but the gulf between these two sides is still larger than the odds suggest.

Montpellier are only doing well because they’re a well-organised unit. They’re hard to beat but don’t score many goals. They lack the quality that they had last year as they sold their best striker Montano to Stade Rennais and key midfielder Costa to Valencia CF. For a well-organised side, those two losses were hefty blows and have impacted Montpellier’s threat in front of goal, naturally. Ironically, Montpellier brought in Chilean midfielder Estrada to alleviate the absence of Costa but he misses this game through injury, which leaves impotent Montpellier very short on the creativity front. You can see how poor Montpellier can actually be by the fact that only OGC Nice and Arles have scored less goals than they have. I can’t fault Montpellier’s defence but if they enter an open game of football then they’re played off the park, to be blunt! They’ve only lost once at home this sason in seven games, to their credit, so I do respect the hosts here. However, if they don’t intend on scoring more than a goal per game then they’re really going to struggle against one of the best attacking sides in Ligue 1 today.

Lyon won at Montpellier last season, helpfully, so they do know how to do it. A 2-2 draw at home to title rivals Paris Saint-Germain won’t sit too well with them but that’s to be expected if Lyon encounter a good attacking side because Lyon still have massive issues in the sense that they simply cannot defend. They’re a very poor side defensively but they attack very well so I’ll only back them in certain games – like this one! Montpellier are a stubborn side but if it comes down to who scores the most goals out of these two sides then there’s only one winner here and that’s Lyon. Unfortunately, Lyon do miss creative sparks Gourcuff and Ederson for this game, which is a blow for them. However, star striker Lisandro Lopez is available and he’s a goal machine whenever he’s given the opportunity so I expect Lyon’s potent attack to remain entact for this game. Lyon will have to rely upon Pjanic and Kallstrom more from a creative perspective but they should be able to engineer enough chances between them for Lopez and Gomis/Briand to feed upon today. Basically, Lyon still have more than enough quality to win this game and I really think they should be able to take three points as a result.

I’m covering this selection with draw no bet on the basis that Montpellier are hard to break down. I don’t see Lyon losing this game, however, so my call remains the away win with draw no bet at 4/5.

Team news

Lyon miss Gourcuff, Cris, Grenier, Ederson, and Delgado

Montpellier miss Estrada and have doubts over Saihi.

Verdict: Olympique Lyonnais to win with draw no bet at 4/5.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Hannover 96 - away win with draw no bet at 11/10.

These odds are somewhat…amusing, I suppose. I don’t often like going against bottom clubs as it can be a recipe for disaster but I have no choice here, given the quality advantage and form advantage of Hannover 96!

I don’t think it’d be fair to call Gladbach the worst side in the Bundesliga despite them being bottom of the table. It’s their defence that has placed them in such a position, not their overall ability. However, no wins from seven home games is asking for trouble and that’s certainly where Gladbach are at currently. Nobody in the Bundesliga has conceded as many as the hosts have with an average of well over two goals conceded per game. Gladbach have shipped ten goals in their last three home games in the Bundesliga as the defence continues to look as if they’ve never seen each other before. On top of that, they’re still missing Jaures, who is an experienced French defender, and they’re also missing ex-Standard de Liege defender Dante for this game. To make matters worse for Gladbach, they also miss first-choice keeper Bailly through injury so their defensive record looks likely to get even worse today. I can’t fault Gladbach’s attack – any side with Juan Arango is playmaker will score goals and De Camargo and Idrissou have found that. However, if Gladbach are going to insist upon playing an open game of football with every Bundesliga opponent then they’re going to receive heavy defeats for the remainder of this season en mass and will most likely be relegated.

Visitors Hannover 96, however, do not look likely to be relegated. Indeed, they’re comfortably sat fourth in the Bundesliga table following an excellent start to their campaign and with three consecutive wins under their belts ahead of this game, it’s hard to see them slipping up here. Hannover are generally a “home win only” side but they’ve already won three out of six on the road this season despite possessing the worst goalscoring record in the division away from home. Nonetheless, they’ve won at high-flying Mainz 05 recently, as well as overcoming giants Hamburger SV, so momentum is definitely on their side today. Interestingly enough, Hannover 96 have played very well lately without star summer signing Abdellaoue, who is a Norwegian goal machine signed from Valerenga Oslo. He was playing really well before his injury so it’s a shame that he’s still out today. Striker Stroppelkamp is ruled out of this game but experienced Forssell should take his place in attack. Aside from that, Hannover’s absences don’t concern me. I like their form an awful lot though and as such, I rate their chances much higher here than the bookies do.

I’d be a lot more cautious about this bet if Gladbach could defend but they really can’t. If Hannover 96 make any kind of half-hearted attack today then they should score; that’s how bad the hosts’ defence is. For me, Hannover 96 won’t lose this game so I’m covering my selection with draw no bet and taking the away win at 11/10 as Hannover 96 should be the only side that leaves this game with three points today.

Team news:

Gladbach miss Meeuwis, Bailly, Dante, Jaures, and Jantschke

Hannover 96 miss Miller, Haggui, Abdellaoue, Stroppelkamp, Carlitos, and Andreasen.

Verdict: Hannover 96 to win with draw no bet at 11/10.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich - away win at 21/20.

Schalke 04 haven’t changed an awful lot since last year…barring their defence. Schalke 04 are still the dour, low-scoring side that they always were but now they’ve abandoned their defence and are battling relegation as a result. The departure of Westermann, Rafinha, and Bordon was absolutely suicidal for Schalke 04; they can’t defend with only Metzelder remaining!! They even sold ex-Tromso defender Reginiussen to Lecce, which was not only stupid (even though he was back-up) but it was stupidly timed too! I mean, Schalke 04 have brought in the likes of Raul to replace Kuranyi (fair enough – good move) but how the hell they hope to defend having only brought in Metzelder is beyond me. He must look around at times and think “Who the fuck am I defending with?” because I sure do! This Schalke 04 side was a success in the last few years despite financial issues because of their defence. No defence = no joy for Schalke 04 so it’s no surprise at all that they’re struggling here.

Defence was the only reason Schalke 04 rarely managed to take anything off Bayern Munich. Without it, they’re a class beneath the visitors and it really should show today. I hate backing Bayern on the basis that they’re a two-man team but they’ve at least got one of those men fit and playing again – Ribery. Van Gaal may have stuck the boot in a bit ago when he said Ribery wasn’t playing well because he was “lazy” but good managers always know how to motivate certain players and there’s no denying that Ribery is too good for the Bundesliga. When he plays well, Bayern win, simply. Bayern still miss Klose and Olic, which are two hefty losses in attack for different reasons – Klose is Bayern’s only naturally talented goalscorer despite being phased out last season and Olic is an engine that never stops motivating the rest of the team – so Bayern aren’t at full-strength yet. However, their casualty list is gradually lessening and they demonstrated that by battering Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 in their last game. It might not look a lot on paper but Frankfurt don’t get battered by anyone in general. In fact, had Bayern scored another goal, they’d have scored a quarter of the Bundesliga goals that have been scored against Frankurt this season – give that some thought!

To me, that says Bayern are getting back to their best and they’ve got a superb chance to make it two wins from  two today. Schalke 04 enter this game on the back of a humiliating 5-0 defeat at newly-promoted Kaiserslautern, which illustrates my point about their impotent attacking and haphazard defending perfectly. I therefore feel that 21/20 on the away win is a good price today.

Team news:

Bayern miss Robben, Klose, Olic, Contento, Alaba, and Sattelmaier

Schalke 04 miss Jones, Baumjohann, Sarpei, Moritz, Hoogland, and Kenia

Verdict: Bayern Munich to win at 21/20.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Arminia Bielefeld vs Greuther Furth – away win at evens.

Like most sides in the Bundesliga 2, Greuther Furth aren’t the same side that they were last year. However, also like most sides in Bundesliga 2, they’re still capable of beating Arminia Bielefeld.

Arminia Bielefeld are just a name nowadays. They’ve lost almost all of their good players and are deservedly bottom of the table as a result. The only two sides they’ve beaten at home this season are the only two sides they’re capable of beating quality-wise – newly-promoted clubs Ingolstadt and Osnabruck respectively. Arminia have been easily overcome by every other opponent in their remaining five home games because they don’t score goals and they concede far too easily. They’ve only scored in one of their last four games and with Albanian striker Berisha being the only talented attacker they have (barring veteran Oliver Neuville, of course!), it’s not likely to improve in the near future.

Like I said earlier – don’t make the mistake of thinking that Greuther Furth are as good now as they have been in the last couple of years. However, they’re still a side that should comfortably finish in the top-half of the table with the likes of emerging Serbian striker Aleksic, experienced Montenegrin midfielder Pekovic, and ex-Slavia Sofia centre-back Karaslavov in their team. Greuther are simply a better side than Arminia and fortunately, form is on their side today. They’ve played well lately by claiming a 1-1 draw with promotion hopefuls Augsburg before winning the tricky trip to Paderborn with ease (0-4!) and even overcame a stubborn 1860 Munich 1-0 in their last match so momentum is on their side.

I’d never wade into a Bundesliga 2 tip because it’s a fairly dodgy league but Arminia Bielefeld are nothing on what they were and the odds suggest that they’re still a good side, which they’re not! With that in mind, I have to take the away win at evens although caution is recommended here.

Verdict: Greuther Furth to win at evens.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Panionios vs Kerkyra Corfu – home win to nil at 33/20.

Panionios at 4/5? They should do it but I don’t like those odds.

What I do like, however, is the extremely long odds on them winning to nil. I don’t understand why they’re such long odds though, in all honesty. It can’t be the win itself – that’s priced at 4/5. Defensively, however, Panionios’ strong record at home is only bettered by giants Olympiakos Piraeus so it can’t be that side too. Confused? I am!

Nonetheless, let’s see if we can take advantage of this potential bookies blip. Panionios are in the relegation zone because they’re not blessed with natural goalscorers and because they line up with defensive midfielders everywhere to defend any kind of lead that they obtain. However, despite Panionios’ inability to score goals on a regular basis, what I will say about them is when they score, they do tend to hold it due to the large number of defensive players that they field. They made the tough trip to Larissa lately, got the lead, and held it for a 0-1 win. They hosted Iraklis in their last match – got the lead, held it, won 1-0. They even beat AEK Athens here at couple of weeks ago – yes, you guessed it – 1-0! They’re obviously not a great side as Olympiakos demonstrated by battering them 5-0 a couple of weeks go but they’re a well-organised outfit and if you fall behind against them, especially away from home, then you need all the help you can get.

The buble has already burst for newly-promoted Kerkyra Corfu with points increasingly hard to come by. They’ve taken one point from fifteen lately because they’ve only scored two goals in five games. I’m sure you’ll agree that that kind of record is not the kind to take to a stubborn defensive unit like Panionios, especially with the knowledge that striker Kalantzis misses this game. Kerkyra have already lost three out of five on the road in the Super League this season and if the hosts play as well as they have done lately then we’ll see another defeat for Kerkyra here today.

I can’t deny that a draw is a possibility here as the hosts are not consistently good goalscorers. However, I can’t understand how Panionios are 33/20 to win to nil when they’re one of the best defensive units in Greece at the moment, they’re in-form, they’re at home, and they’re 4/5 to win outright. I therefore think there’s value in doing so although caution is mandatory! I also think a cheeky punt on a 1-0 scoreline is worth a shot too with the above in mind!

Verdict: Panionios to win to nil at 33/20.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Accumulator fodder:

FC Copenhagen, Cardiff City, Panathinaikos, AC Milan, Cerezo Osaka, PSV Eindhoven, Partizan Belgrade, Bangor City, The New Saints.

Recommended bets:

Real Madrid and Bayern Munich at 2/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Estudiantes De La Plata vs Argentinos Juniors (6) under 2.5 goals
Colon de Santa Fe vs River Plate (5) 1-1

Australian A-League:

Central Coast Mariners vs Sydney FC (6) 2-2
North Queensland Fury vs Newcastle Jets (5) under 2.5 goals

Austrian Bundesliga:

Wiener Neustadt vs SV Mattersburg (6) 2-1
Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz (7) under 2.5 goals
Wacker Innsbruck vs SV Kapfenberg (4) 1-1
Salzburg vs Austria Vienna (6) 2-1

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Sint-Truiden vs Kortrijk (5) 1-1
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge (6) 1-2
Lierse SK vs Mechelen (4) 1-1
AS Eupen vs AA Gent (7) 1-2

Chilean Primera Division:

La Serena vs O’Higgins (6) 2-1
Union Espanola vs Cobresal (7) 2-0

Colombian Primera A:

Atletico Huila vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (6) 1-2, draw no bet
La Equidad Bogota vs Deportes Tolima (5) 1-1

Croatian Prva Liga:

Istra 1961 vs Lokomotiva Zagreb (5) 1-0
Split vs Karlovac (5) 1-0
Zadar vs Slaven Koprivnica (6) 1-1
Osijek vs NK Zagreb (6) 2-1

Cypriot Division 1:

Enosis Neon Paralimni vs Alki (5) 1-0
AEL Limassol vs APOEL Nicosia (7) 1-2
A.E.Paphos vs AEK Larnaca (6) 1-2
Olympiakos Nicosia vs Doxa (6) 1-0

Danish Superligaen:

FC Copenhagen vs Esbjerg (8) 2-0
OB Odense vs Aalborg BK (6) 2-1

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Deportivo Quito vs Barcelona Guayaquil (6) 1-0

English Premier League:

Arsenal vs Fulham (6) 2-1
Birmingham City vs Tottenham Hotspur (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Blackburn Rovers vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (6) 1-0
Chelsea vs Everton (6) under 2.5 goals
Manchester City vs Bolton Wanderers (5) 2-1
Wigan Athletic vs Stoke City (5) 0-1, draw no bet

English Championship:

Ipswich Town vs Swansea City (6) under 2.5 goals
Watford vs Leicester City (5) both sides to score
Coventry City vs Middlesbrough (6)
Derby County vs Norwich City (6) over 2.5 goals
Cardiff City vs Preston North End (8) over 2.5 goals
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace (7)
Millwall vs Scunthorpe United (6)

English League One:

Exeter City vs Tranmere Rovers (6)
Swindon Town vs Sheffield Wednesday (5) over 2.5 goals
Bristol Rovers vs Southampton (6) draw no bet

English League Two:

Oxford United vs Barnet (6)
Northampton Town vs Stockport County (6)

French Ligue 1:

Arles vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (4) 1-1
Racing Club Lens vs Auxerre (5) 1-0, draw no bet
LOSC Lille vs Lorient (7) 2-0
Stade Rennais vs AS Monaco (6) 1-0
Sochaux vs Valenciennes (6) 2-1
Toulouse vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (5) 1-0
Montpellier HSC vs Olympique Lyonnais (6) 1-2

German Bundesliga:

VfB Stuttgart vs Hoffenheim (5) 2-2, at least one red card in this game
VfL Wolfsburg vs Werder Bremen (7) over 2.5 goals
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz 05 (6) under 2.5 goals
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Hannover 96 (6) 1-2, draw no bet
SC Freiburg vs Hamburger SV (5) 1-1
Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich (6) 1-2

German Bundesliga 2:

Augsburg vs Energie Cottbus (5) over 2.5 goals
Arminia Bielefeld vs Greuther Furth (7)

Greek Super League:

Iraklis vs Ergotelis (5) under 2.5 goals
Panionios vs Kerkyra Corfu (7) 1-0
Panathinaikos vs Panserraikos (8) 2-1

Italian Serie A:

Chievo Verona vs AS Roma (5) under 2.5 goals
AC Milan vs Brescia (8) 2-0

Italian Serie B:

Albinoleffe vs Empoli (4) draw no bet
Ascoli vs Padova (5) under 2.5 goals
Cittadella vs Triestina (6) under 2.5 goals
Grosseto vs Modena (6)
Livorno vs Pescara (7)
Novara vs Crotone (6) under 2.5 goals
Portosummaga vs Atalanta Bergamo (6)
Sassuolo vs Piacenza (6)
Varese vs Reggina (6)

Japanese J-League:

Vegalta Sendai vs Kawasaki Frontale (5) 1-1
Montedio Yamagata vs Kashima Antlers (6) 1-2
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Vissel Kobe (3) 0-1, draw no bet
Yokohama F.Marinos vs Omiya Ardija (7) 2-1
Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare (6) 2-0
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (7) 1-0
Kyoto Sanga vs Tokyo (7) 1-2
Cerezo Osaka vs Jubilo Iwata (8) under 2.5 goals

Dutch Eredivisie:

AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen (7) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score
PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles Almelo (8) 2-0
Excelsior Rotterdam vs NAC Breda (6) over 2.5 goals
Twente Enschede vs De Graafschap (7) 2-1

Paraguayan Division Profesional:

Rubio Nu vs Guarani Asuncion (6) 1-1

Peruvian Primera Division:

Sport Boys vs Leon de Huanuco (5) 1-1
Alianza Lima vs Universidad San Martin (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
CNI vs Universitario Lima (5) under 2.5 goals

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Pacos de Ferreira (7) 2-1
Uniao de Leiria vs Sporting Braga (5) 1-1

Romanian Liga:

Gloria Bistrita vs Poli Timisoara (7) 1-1
Dinamo Bucharest vs Astra Ploiesti (7) over 2.5 goals

Serbian Super Liga:

Metalac GM vs Hajduk Kula (5) 1-0
Cukaricki vs OFK Belgrade (7) 1-2
Javor Ivanjica vs Rad Belgrade (6) under 2.5 goals
BSK Borca vs Borac Cacak (6) 0-0
Smederevo vs Indija (6) 1-0
Partizan Belgrade vs Sevojno (8) over 2.5 goals
Red Star Belgrade vs Vojvodina Novi Sad (6) 2-1

Spanish Primera Liga:

Levante vs Atletico Madrid (5) 1-2
Osasuna vs Barcelona (7) 1-2
Real Madrid vs Valencia CF (7) over 2.5 goals

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Numancia vs Real Betis Balompie (6)
Huesca vs Alcorcon (6)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Villarreal II (5)
Cordoba vs Recreativo de Huelva (5) under 2.5 goals
Barcelona II vs Real Valladolid (5)
Cartagena vs Albacete (7)

Swiss Super League:

Basel vs Young Boys Bern (7) over 2.5 goals
St.Gallen vs Neuchatel Xamax (6) 2-1

Turkish Super Lig:

Manisaspor vs Gaziantepspor (6) 1-1
Ankaragucu vs Sivasspor (7) 1-0
Kasimpasa vs Galatasaray (5) 1-1

Uruguayan Primera Division:

Danubio vs Central Espanol (7) 2-1
Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo (5) 1-1
Montevideo Wanderers vs Miramar Misiones (6) 1-0
Racing Club Montevideo vs Penarol (5) 1-2

Welsh Premier League:

Bangor City vs Port Talbot Town (8) 2-0
The New Saints vs Airbus UK (8) -1.5 handicap

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Barcelona vs Real Madrid

Well, it’s finally here – the Primera Liga “El Clasico” between Barcelona and Real Madrid! Everyone has been talking up a fabulous game between two massive clubs with fantastic attacking players and I hope they’re right, too. However, call me pessimistic but I’m expecting a somewhat dour game here and I’ll explain why.

On one hand we have mighty Barcelona, who arguably play the finest football in Europe on their day. They’ve been a little weak this season but have really turned it on their past few games and thus bring good momentum into this encounter.

On the other hand, we have giants Real Madrid, who play some of the most efficient football in Europe on their day. They’ve been getting stronger and stronger as the weeks go by without necessarily playing well as Jose Mourinho truly gets his feet under the table at the Santiago Bernabeu and I expect another efficient display from Mourinho’s men today.

So, yeah – Barcelona definitely play the better fooball out of these two sides. What else would you expect? Playing the “beautiful game” is part of the upbringing of every Barcelona youngster and their squad is littered with home-grown talent, hence their relentless Catalan enthusiasm in each game. This has been Barcelona’s way for years and they won’t change it for anyone. As admirable as that is, a lack of Plan B is a big problem against big sides and I think that’s partially what we’ll see tonight.

Real Madrid have been forged on money alone for some time now so it’s no surprise that Mourinho inherited a team of individuals with little cohesion and little sense of tactics. However, he’s set about them and he’s done the impossible by making Madrid very hard to beat. Madrid don’t have great defenders but the way Mourinho makes them play is very efficient. Therefore, for the first time in years, Madrid bring a side to face Barcelona that actually has the capacity to stop them.

It’s hard to judge how much these two sides have or haven’t improved from the previous season because the only real test either side properly gets is when they play each other. The biggest change either side has made was Barcelona signing David Villa, in my opinion. Initially, I thought it was a great move as sides wouldn’t know whether to expect him or Ibrahimovic but then they went and loaned/sold Ibrahimovic…which didn’t make sense to me. His style doesn’t suit a 4-5-1, admittedly, but the deal doesn’t make sense because Ibrahimovic is a very, very clever player – he unlocks defences and Barcelona need that. Villa is a more outright striker and gives Barcelona more goal threat but for me, Barcelona really need both and I think they’ve fucked up by selling Ibrahimovic long-term.

The above leaves Barcelona more susceptible than normal to tight defences and low back lines. David Villa is a short striker, to be blunt, so crosses are no good. His off-the-ball movement is good but that’s all Barcelona can hope for here and I think that’s far easier for Mourinho’s men to defend against than the unpredictable Ibrahimovic, who was also taller than Villa and thus a greater threat in the air. Barcelona can monopolise possession against anyone but they often struggle to break down defences if the side that is defending knows how to defend. Spanish sides in general can’t do that but look at when Barcelona meet Chelsea or Manchester United, for example – they have the ball but generally don’t do much with it due to good defending. That is what I personally feel we’re looking at tonight because Mourinho doesn’t play Spanish football; he plays tactical football and he does it bloody well. Everything you’ve seen or thought about this game – he already knows. From the length of the grass to the mind games – Mourinho just knows and that’s why Madrid are a threat here.

Mourinho set the mind games ball rolling earlier this season by suggesting Villa was a bad buy for Barcelona due to him not scoring many goals and by suggesting sides put less effort in against Barcelona. The Barcelona players have said that his mind games don’t affect them but they do – perhaps not all of them but it will affect some of them and Mourinho knows it. He spent a long time at Barcelona – he knows how this club operates and knows how to defend against them too. He guided an ageing Internazionale to victory over two legs against Barcelona in a fairly comfortable fashion by defending immensely and there was little Barcelona could do about it. Lionel Messi is a fantastic player but there’s only so much even he can do if he’s got three men on him whenever he has the ball. If you limit him, you limit Barcelona to “Plan B” tactics that they simply don’t have and that’s what Mourinho will try to do tonight, in my opinion – he’s not stupid enough to take Barcelona on in an open game!

The difference between the Madrid side he has now and the Internazionale side he had last year is that his defence isn’t as good but his attack is much better. To defend like Mourinho’s sides do, you need quick counter-attacking players and they don’t come much quicker or better than Cristiano Ronaldo, who will probably be bearing a grudge against Barcelona for the UEFA Champions League Final defeat that he suffered against Barcelona whilst playing for Manchester United – those kind of memories just don’t fade. Aside from him, Madrid also boast Higuain to assist him and those two are a real handful together so I think Barcelona have to be very careful tonight.

Basically, I don’t think we’ll see a great game here at all. I think we’ll see two sides that are afraid to lose the game more than anything. Madrid should defend it and they’ll probably have a lot of joy whilst doing so as Barcelona are very predictable – it’s just one thing to know what will happen and another being able to deal with it! If Barcelona score – and they are capable of doing so if Messi is given space – then I don’t think we’ll see the usual Barcelona push for a second – I think Guardiola will tell them to keep the ball and hold the win. I expect the exact same if Madrid score too, which makes sense really, so I don’t see many goals here at all – just like this game at Nou Camp last season.

Given the amount of quality players on display, you must approach this bet with caution as it could be 4-4 and nobody would bat an eyelid. However, for me, the only bet that interests me tonight is this game going under 2.5 goals at 5/4. I envision Madrid keeping it tight and keeping Barcelona out whilst hitting them with potentially successful counter-attacks. If I had to pick a winner then I’d side with Barcelona but I wouldn’t touch the 1×2 market, to be honest, although I do have a theory that Mourinho may use this game as leverage (if Madrid loses) to back up his claims earlier this season of Madrid “needing another striker” so that is in the back of my mind too. Either way – I’ll be surprised to see this game go over 2.5 goals because I can’t see it being an open game.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 – why not bet on this game now at Bwin?

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Monday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Huracan vs Atletico Lanus – over 2.5 goals at 6/5.

Time is running out for both sides here! If giants River Plate are to stay in the Primera Division then it’s going to be at the expense of Huracan as they’re the only side outside of the drop zone that can be caught. Therefore, Huracan need points and they need them fast. Everyone knows that earning points is easier at home than it is away so Huracan need to take advantage of that today.

Unfortunately for the hosts, they’re facing an Atletico Lanus side that finally broke their run of bad form lately with a 2-0 win at home to Tigre. It’s not the most earth-shatteringly great result ever but it does re-awaken Lanus’ aim of qualifying for the Copa Libertadores, which they can still do with Banfield and Newells Old Boys fucking up their respective campaigns royally, although they do need Racing Club Avellaneda to stumble too. Nonetheless, the possibility is there and Lanus definitely have the ability – the only thing they’ve ever lacked is consistency and belief so it’ll be interesting to see which Lanus side turns up tonight.

I was tempted to take the away win here but with the knowledge that neither side is defending well, I decided against doing so. However, what massively intrigued me was over 2.5 goals at a very generous 6/5. Three out of Huracan’s last four games have gone over 2.5 goals as times have gotten desperate and with Lanus’ momentum from their win last match and the stumbling of their rivals, they’ll be up for this game. The last three meetings between these two sides have gone over 2.5 goals and two of those meetings were at this ground so the possibility is there. If both sides turn up for this game, I thoroughly expect this game to go over 2.5 goals and at 6/5, it has to be worth a flutter.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Argentinos Juniors vs Colon de Santa Fe – both sides to score at 9/10.

Ah, at last – an Argentinian game which means nothing for both sides! Ironically, the lack of pressure on both sides has seen both sides relax, play good football, and forge some of the best runs of form in the Primera Division with neither side having lost for four consecutive games with both sides winning three times and drawing once along the way. Generally speaking, I’d be concerned if this game meant something as Argentinos tend to keep it tight in defence, which is their only remaining strong feature following their squad’s ravaging after a successful campaign last time around. However, Colon are one of the highest scoring sides in the current campaign away from home so they’ll hopefully breach the hosts’ resilient defence tonight as the game doesn’t require constant vigilance from both sides. Colon’s defence on the road is poor enough to allow Argentinos’ impotent attack to score and therefore we should see both sides scoring in this game although may God help you if you enter the 1×2 market here!

To boost the idea of both sides scoring even further here – both sides have scored in this game for three out of the last four games between these two sides when it’s been played at Argentinos Juniors so the foundation for this bet’s success is certainly there. I do have to urge caution as neither side has anything to play for here with Argentinos Juniors having already qualified for the Copa Libertadores and Colon de Santa Fe comfortably in the middle of nowhere. However, this relaxed style has produced a good number of goals for both sides and I think we’ll see quite a casual, open game here and therefore both sides scoring at 9/10 appeals to me.

Verdict: Both sides to score at 9/10.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Chernomorets Burgas – home win at 11/10.

Chernomorets Burgas are one of just two A PFG sides yet to taste defeat this season. However, I think it’s time for that to change and this is the opportune moment for it to occur.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv have been consistently underestimated by the bookies this season because they’re basing their odds on their displays last season, which were diabolical. This is a very different Loko side indeed – there’s much more money behind them now, more quality in their side, and a renewed sense of belief, especially at home. It’s no coincidence that only Levski Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia have scored more goals at home than Lokomotiv Plovdiv have this season and it’s because they’re rapidly becoming a very good side. Loko have won four out of six at home in the A PFG this season, drawing the other two games. They’ve notched up a highly impressive average of nearly three goals scored per home game whilst conceding just three times in those six games, two of which were against current league leaders Litex Lovech! This Loko side is very, very strong and they’ve played well against Litex Lovech at home and away against Lokomotiv Sofia in the cup a week ago so they’re very capable of mixing it with the “big boys” of the A PFG and I expect more of the same today, especially as only Litex Lovech and Beroe (one of the best defensive sides in the A PFG) have avoided defeat here.

I can’t even class Chernomorets Burgas as a legitimate title threat this season because they simply do not score enough goals! Quality-wise, they’re definitely good enough to be competing for the title – they can stop most, if not all, sides from scoring against them on their day but they’re utterly inept when it comes to creating and scoring chances so I just can’t take them seriously. Yes, they are unbeaten this season but they’ve drawn exactly half of their A PFG games, which is seven from fourteen, which is far more than any other side has drawn. They boast the best defensive record in the division due to their boring football tactics but the knowledge that only a handful of sides have scored less times than they have has to be concerning here. I find myself envisioning the scenario whereby Chernomorets Burgas inevitably fall behind in a game and wonder if they’d pull it back and I just don’t see how they’d manage it, frankly. They’ve been losing at half-time in two out of their fourteen A PFG games this season but pulled it back to get a draw and a win; once at newly-promoted Kaliakra (the draw) and once against Lokomotiv Sofia (the win) because the only games that Chernomorets demonstrate their full potential in are the ones against the big clubs in Bulgaria, which today’s opponents most definitely aren’t.

If Lokomotiv Plovdiv break the stentorian resistance of Chernomorets Burgas then I genuinely feel they’ll hold it and win. The big question is whether they’ll score or not, of course. It’s a tough test for the hosts but they’ve scored against Litex Lovech twice this season, who are currently the best side in the country, so why not against Cherno today? Plovdiv are buoyant at the moment as they knocked Lokomotiv Sofia out of the Bulgarian Cup last week so morale will be a big help to them today. With that in mind, I think Loko may just make 11/10 on winning this game look a little generous, especially as they managed to win this game last year with a less able squad. They’re on fire thanks to veteran striker Lazarov and if they do win the game then I’m pretty confident it’ll be him who does the damage today!

Absentees – Ton and Samir Benjaloun are suspended for the hosts.

Verdict: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win at 11/10.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Gloria Bistrita vs Victoria Branesti – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.

Gloria Bistrita’s new(ish!) manager has guided the hosts to a much more attacking frame of mind and it’s worked but only sporadically. I suppose that’s fair enough when you consider that he’s not exactly got the likes of Torje or Niculae to bail his side out, unlike the giants of the division, but they’re doing ok as a result. They’ve given Gaz Metan a tough away game, beaten giants CFR Cluj in the Cupa Romaniei before succumbing to a heavy defeat against the same side in the Liga. Unlike their old selves, however, Gloria Bistrita picked themselves back up, dusted themselves down, and claimed a very impressive win at a good Universitatea Craiova side so the spirit is there for all to see with this side, given the correct opportunity to show it. Three out of Gloria’s last four games in all competitions have gone over 2.5 goals since they adopted a more attacking style and given that they need the points today against newly-promoted Victoria Branesti, I fancy them to maintain their attacking stance for this game.

Visitors Victoria Branesti are a side that are starting to grow on me because they simply don’t know when they’re beaten. This side has played together for some time and although they lack in the quality department, they don’t lack in the cohesion nor spirit department so my hat goes off to them. They’ve had to deal without having had a home advantage this season, which is an absolute nightmare for a newly-promoted side, and they’ve handled it quite well. As I mentioned earlier, however, they’re not a good defensive side as just three clean sheets in sixteen Liga games indicates all too well. That said, the visitors today don’t let that affect their confidence and they still play their attacking game, which is also evident from the fact that no side in the bottom half of the Liga table have scored more goals than they have this season. Two out of Branesti’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals and this one should too as Branesti simply don’t know when they’re beaten. They’ve taken a deserved 1-1 draw from a trip to league leaders Otelul Galati and gave Dinamo Bucharest a battle in a 2-4 defeat at home last match. As I mentioned earlier – this side has a lot of spirit and that’s important for an attacking side to convert their chances and that’s why I think they’ll attack and score today. Can they win the game? I don’t think they have the quality to do it but I wouldn’t write them off either so I’m staying away from the 1×2 market.

Importantly, Bar misses this game for Victoria Branesti through suspension and he’s an essential part of their already-shaky defence. I therefore think Gloria Bistrita will have their chances and knowing that Branesti will attack them too, this game surely has to go over 2.5 goals today and it has to be worth a punt at decent odds of 11/10.

Absentees – Bar is suspended for Victoria Branesti.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Accumulator fodder:

Lugano

Recommended bets:

Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Lugano at 2/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Huracan vs Atletico Lanus (5) over 2.5 goals
Argentinos Juniors vs Colon de Santa Fe (6) both sides to score

Bulgarian A PFG:

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Chernomorets Burgas (6) 1-0

Cypriot Division 1:

Alki vs Ermis (6) 0-0

Danish Superligaen:

AC Horsens vs Aalborg BK (6) 1-1

English Championship:

Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest (5) under 2.5 goals

French Ligue 2:

Tours vs Le Mans (6)

German Bundesliga 2:

Greuther Furth vs 1860 Munich (5) under 2.5 goals

Italian Serie B:

Modena vs Cittadella (6)

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

Veendam vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (6) over 2.5 goals

Romanian Liga:

Gloria Bistrita vs Victoria Branesti (6) over 2.5 goals
Gaz Metan Medias vs Universitatea Craiova (5) 1-0

Spanish Primera Liga:

Barcelona vs Real Madrid (5) under 2.5 goals

Swiss Challenge League:

Lugano vs Aarau (8)

Turkish Super Lig:

Bursaspor vs Kayserispor (6) 1-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!