Before today’s previewed game, there’s two bets I’d like to point out for you all to consider:
1. I’ve been quoted odds of 8/1 by Paddy Power for Barcelona to not concede another goal in the Champions League this season over the 2-3 games that they have left to play but only over 90 minutes. Bargain or what? Inter couldn’t get the ball off them in their two games this season and failed to score in both games and whoever Barcelona inevitably face in the final (unless they go out on penalties from a 0-0 draw in both legs!) will surely be inadequate as both Olympique Lyonnais and Bayern Munich are poor sides in comparison to Barcelona. Barcelona just don’t lose the ball so I consider this bet very good.
2. Barcelona are 4/5 to win the Champions League – bargain! Fuck the record of no side having won the Champions League twice in a row – records are there to be broken. Who is going to stop them? Nobody. Why Barcelona are less than 1/3 baffles me!!
Anyway, today’s featured game is the Bundesliga game between SV Ried and Rapid Vienna. SV Ried have had a poor season by their high standards and will be glad to ride it out. Rapid Vienna have had a topsy-turvy season but still find themselves in the final reckoning so will be keen to prolong their good form by winning tonight.
SV Ried are a damn good home side. Fuck the statistics for this season! I’ve seen a lot of “tipsters” saying how easy this game will be for Rapid Vienna. No, it won’t be easy for Rapid Vienna. The Keine Sorgen Arena is arguably the toughest venue to travel to in Austria for an away game as SV Ried are very strong there. True, they’ve not had a good season, which is partially why I’m making this call today, but don’t expect them to lie down here because they never do. The fact that SV Ried don’t even concede a goal per game at home should give you some indication as to how strong they can be. Rapid Vienna haven’t won here in their last four visits in all competitions so SV Ried do motivate themselves well for this game and I expect quite a feisty game as a result. However, the statistics don’t lie and SV Ried aren’t making the grade this season, particularly since their return from the winter break where they’ve won just once in nine Bundesliga games, losing six times along the way. They’ve played some good sides at home – i.e. Salzburg, Austria Vienna – and lost but have also lost to poor travellers Wiener Neustadt which shows how much SV Ried have slipped this year. They’re still a presentable side, don’t get me wrong, but they’re looking particularly demoralised at the present time.
Rapid Vienna haven’t looked the same since the departure of Maierhofer and who can be surprised by that? He was an option that was impossible to defend against and Rapid have definitely missed him. However, Rapid are getting back to their best as they’re now unbeaten in their past five games, winning four times along the way. They’ve drawn at in-form Sturm Graz and beaten bitter rivals Austria Vienna along the way so they bring good momentum into this game. They’ve only conceded in two out of their last five Bundesliga games but have scored eleven times along the way so they’re certainly looking their potent selves. Rapid have let themselves down on the road this season with just four Bundesliga away wins but now is the time to change it against a weakened and demoralised host. No side has scored as many away goals in the Bundesliga as Rapid Vienna have this season with an average of nearly two goals scored per away game so the hosts’ solid defence should be tested very throughly tonight.
Rapid Vienna are six points behind Salzburg currently so can’t afford any more lapses. They’ve played well lately and should be able to continue that tonight with their good momentum and potency at the present time. Few sides manage to take something from this fixture so I think the bookies have priced this game very well indeed. However, SV Ried’s demise and Rapid Vienna ascendancy leaves the momentum table favouring the away side. Rapid Vienna are a better side and SV Ried are looking particularly susceptible at the moment so the away win could and should be good value tonight although I seriously doubt that this will be a walk in the park!
Verdict: Rapid Vienna to win at evens.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
St.Polten vs Salzburg II – home win at evens.
Surprising odds? Definitely.
St.Polten have already won seven out of twelve home games in Liga 1 this season. Their lack of goalscoring ability has concerned me somewhat but St.Polten continue to defy the odds of maintaining that run with such low-scoring home wins by continuing to win! They’ve won both home games since returning from the winter break, scoring five times along the way, so they’re at least starting to improve their potency, happily! St.Polten’s strength is not conceding at home and they showed that by keeping a clean sheet in their last home game. St.Polten won their last match at Hartberg, not a particularly difficult away game per se but an away win for St.Polten is rare so I recognise the confidence they’ll have taken from the win. St.Polten should have enough in their arsenal to do the damage tonight so I expect three points for them.
Salzburg II have lost their last three away games consecutively in this divison whilst conceding six times, which equates to an average of two goals conceded per away game, which equates to problems. They’ve already lost seven out of twelve away games this season and average conceding 1.5 goals per away game, a record which has worsened since their return from the winter break. Salzburg II never look short of a goal or two despite continually losing on the road so don’t underestimate them here. However, they often struggle on the road because they’re not a particularly good side and I expect another spirited but ultimately disappointing display from them tonight.
St.Polten are the better of these two sides and have home advantage to boot. They’re scoring more goals than normal and are starting to become fairly consistent so I think they’ll do the business tonight. However, why they’re at evens is beyond me – they should be much clearer favourites for this game because they’re the better side by some way, in my opinion.
Verdict: St.Polten to win at evens.
Sint-Truiden vs Anderlecht - away win at 4/6.
The odds aren’t great but then again, backing Anderlecht against anyone in Belgium at 4/6 has to be worthy of consideration. They’ve got so many goals in that squad that it’s impossible to go against them. They’ve got a mixed record against Sint-Truiden so do approach with caution, particularly with Sint-Truiden having claimed two consecutively impressive wins of late. However, the gulf in class between the two sides today is vast and Anderlecht are scoring far too many goals to be contained. Class-wise, the away win here should be 1/2 at least so I can only think that the bookies are reading a lot into Sint-Truiden’s recent results against Anderlecht. Either way, the away win looks good value at those odds in my book.
Verdict: Anderlecht to win at 4/6.
Dijon FCO vs AC Ajaccio – home win at evens.
Dijon have had a largely unproductive season as their mixed statistics at home and away indicate all too well. Too many draws and not enough wins leave Dijon somewhat meaninglessly mid-table whereas they should be utilising their atypically strong home displays to push up the table. However, despite the above, Dijon have entered a higher gear of late and are unbeaten in their last five games, winning three times along the way. Dijon don’t traditionally score many goals but their 3-1 win at relegation-threatened Chateauroux did much to convince me that they’re capable of scoring goals on their day and with their strong momentum behind them, it’s hard to go against them tonight.
Visitors AC Ajaccio are a tough, resilient side that I don’t like going against. However, four consecutive defeats has severely punctured their confidence and it’s really beginning to show. Ajaccio have failed to score in three of those games whilst conceding eight times so things do look bad for the Corsica-based outfit of late. Ajaccio usually revert to “plan b” of not conceding if they’re not playing well but they can’t even do that at the moment. To make matters worse, their scandalous match-fixing scam with “rivals” Bastia to “lose” their last game to prolong the derby between the two sides next season rapidly became public knowledge and I can’t help but feel that Ligue 2 sides will have extra motivation against Ajaccio as a result. Ajaccio have already lost nine out of sixteen away games this season and don’t look capable of doing anything about that record here tonight, frankly.
Ajaccio deserve relegation for their bullshit agreement with Bastia. Will it happen? There’s a chance and I sure hope that they are for what they’ve done. Other sides in Ligue 2 must be livid, Dijon included, so I expect an additional level of motivation for the in-form hosts tonight with additional hostility from the fans. This will make Ajaccio’s away game even harder and although I don’t have much faith in Dijon’s ability to score goals, backing them to win this game at evens does have some value in it.
Verdict: Dijon FCO to win at evens.
Le Havre vs Arles – home win at 5/6.
Are Le Havre back to their best yet? No way! However, they’re playing well enough at home for me to consider backing them. They’ve won their last two home games consecutively but more importantly have scored five times to begin firmly pushing their goal-shy displays behind them. They scored those five goals against sides that are decent defensively so I’ve been susbstantially impressed with their potency of late, enough so to take them to win a game like this. They’ve already won nine out of sixteen home games in Ligue 2 and we all know how good they’re capable of being so I’m choosing to overlook their abject displays on the road of late in favour of their more reliable home displays.
Visitors Arles have done well following promotion last season but have still struggled to adapt away from home. They’ve lost eight out of fifteen on the road with an average of nearly two goals conceded per away game whilst scoring a paltry twelve goals in fifteen games. Arles look very much like a newly-promoted side on the road with some inexperienced displays, which is a tad bizarre considering their somewhat “experienced” home displays this season. However, they’ve conceded ten goals in their last five away games which is just too many, particularly when travelling to a potent side like Le Havre, so I expect Arles to struggle tonight.
If Arles were more competent defensively on the road and more incisive in attack then I’d be more hesitant about this call. However, Le Havre love to score goals at home irrespective of how badly they defend as a result and that should be their trump card tonight because Arles cannot score on the road so Le Havre’s shoddy defence shouldn’t be tested properly. Ultimately, even at 5/6, Le Havre should be able to outscore their opponents tonight and win the game.
Verdict: Le Havre to win at 5/6.
Metz vs Sedan-Ardennes – lay Metz at 10/11.
Hosts Metz have bottled their Ligue 2 campaign just when it looked like they’d finally obtain a place back where they belong in Ligue 1. They’re without a win in their past five games, drawing four times and losing once. They’ve failed to register a goal in their last two home games consecutively against two leaky defences – Nantes and Chateauroux respectively – so I’m growing very concerned for this Metz side indeed. They’re traditionally strong at home as this season’s record partially indicates with nine wins in fifteen home games. Metz tend to rely on their cast-iron defence at home as opposed to being flambuoyant and it tends to work for them in this division. However, a side that isn’t scoring goals won’t win games, irrespective of how many goals they keep out and Metz are beginning to lose confidence as a result.
Sedan-Ardennes are one of the more unpredictable sides in this division. I’ve rarely seen a side that can alternate between ingenuity and idiocy in such a short space of time but Sedan are a side that can do so. This side can win at the like of Tours, for example, and yet draw at home to an abysmal Istres. However, one thing Sedan rarely do is lose because they’re a strong side. They’ve only lost twice in their past ten games and have even won at the likes of in-form Brest along the way so don’t underestimate the visitors tonight despite their peculiar league placing. Sedan have lost less than half of their away games this season which may be good considering their league placing but I think it’s a poor record for a good side like Sedan. Consistency – or lack of – is what is keeping Sedan in this division instead of getting them back into Ligue 1 because they’ve got the players to do damage on a consistent basis. Nonetheless, I expect them to turn up tonight as they almost always do against the big sides so I’ll give them their chance at upsetting the odds.
Although Metz are marginally the better side here, I can’t see why on earth the bookies have put them at 8/11 when you consider their barren, goalless run that they’re on. If the “real” Sedan-Ardennes turn up tonight then I seriously doubt Metz will win this game but that’s what it all hinges on – which Sedan turns up. Nonetheless, there’s always value in laying a host that not only doesn’t score many goals to begin with but a host that is also in a goal-shy phase.
Verdict: Lay Metz at 10/11.
Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia – home win with -1.75 handicap at 10/11.
Lech Poznan have set their stall out of pushing Wisla Krakow to the wire for the Ekstraklasa title this season by overcoming a difficult Legia Warsaw in their last match. Lech have won four out of six games since returning from the winter break, drawing the other two games, but winning all of their home games whilst scoring six times along the way. The much sought-after Robert Lewandowski is doing his growing reputation no harm whatsoever in front of the BV09 Borussia Dortmund scouts with his free-scoring form and the whole of the Lech side benefits morale-wise as a result. No side has won as many home games as Lech have this season with eight wins in eleven home games and an average of nearly two goals scored per home game. Lech are playing some fine football and need to continue doing so to maintain their well-earned title challenger status and I thoroughly expect them to win this one tonight against lowly opponents.
However, I wouldn’t be backing the hosts on the handicap without hindrances for Arka because this isn’t a big goalscoring league, as a rule. Arka Gdynia are generally a resilient side but without that feature they become nothing more than punch bags for good opponents. Arka have already lost six out of eleven away games in the Ekstraklasa this season and have been poor lately. They looked set to have a good run following a frankly heroic win at Wisla Krakow five games ago but have severely disappointed since with poor defeats at home to Zaglebie Lubin and at Polonia Warsaw, as well as drawing at home to Polonia Bytom last match. Arka simply aren’t playing well and are missing a hatful of important players to boot, namely defenders Plotka, Siebert, and Mrowiec, as well as strikers Sakalijew and Wachowicz. Ultimately, there are too many absences for Arka to be anywhere near their best and their leaky defence of late gives them little momentum to take into this game so they’re in grave danger of being swept away tonight.
I’m confident on the home win tonight but I’m also feeling confident on the handicap too given the handicaps (if you ignore the pun!) of Arka Gdynia. There’s a big class difference and a big momentum difference so we should see Lech win this by two goals or more.
Verdict: Lech Poznan to beat the -1.75 handicap at 10/11.
Hercules Alicante vs Huesca – lay Hercules Alicante at 11/10.
Seriously, how can the bookies give 8/11 on Hercules to win this game when they’ve not scored in their past five games? They’re easily one of the best sides in the division, no questions asked, but they’re on a horrific run of form with four defeats in their past five games. They’re generally Godly at home in this division but they’re looking more cursed than anything of late! They’ve never been a big goalscoring side but they’re looking even less likely to be that at the moment!
Hercules have lost their last two games consecutively against Las Palmas and Gimnastic de Tarragona. Gimnstic are impressive on the road generally but Las Palmas are not so you can tell something’s wrong in the Hercules camp. With twelve wins in sixteen home games, I’ve no doubt whatsoever that Hercules are capable of winning this game; I simply can’t see them doing it tonight, however.
Visitors Huesca don’t tend to travel well but a record of just two defeats in eight away games of late is more impressive than their league placing reveals. They’ve now lost less than half of their away games and average conceding just over a goal per away game so they’re certainly sound defensively. They’re on a good run of three games without defeat and have kept two clean sheets during that run so I can’t see why they’re such long odds to “do a job” on Hercules tonight.
As I mentioned previously, Hercules are undisputedly the better of these two sides and indeed are one of the best sides in the division. However, they’re not scoring goals and Huesca don’t concede goals as a rule so laying Hercules tonight at glorious odds of 11/10 looks a very good bet indeed to me.
Verdict: Lay Hercules Alicante at 11/10.
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Obolon Kiev – home win at 5/6.
Oh dear – this is potentially some catastrophic underestimating from the bookies! Metalurg Zaporizhya are an established side in the Ukrainian Premier League nowadays and their form reflects that with six wins in eleven home games. Metalurg have won their three home games played since returning from the winter break, a run which includes beating a good Metalurg Donetsk side, and are consistently good on their own turf. They’ve notched up an impressive eight goals during those three games so underestimating them tonight could and should prove fatal. Only Dnipro and Metalist have won here this season (although I’m blatantly ignoring Tavriya’s very fortunate win here!) and they’re both part of the “big four” so suffice to say that Metalurg are good at home. Hell, Metalurg even held Dynamo Kiev to a goalless draw here back in November so they’re certainly good enough do damage today.
Obolon Kiev have done well following promotion, much better than I’d anticipated, to be honest. They owe a lot of that success to their reliable home form as they’re often badly exposed as a weak side away from home, as eight defeats in eleven away games shows all too clearly. They average conceding over two goals per away game and don’t even manage to score a goal per away game on average so how they’re going to trouble Metalurg today is beyond me. Obolon haven’t conceded many of late, that’s true, but they’ve not scored many either. That might look like the perfect recipe for a draw but when the side you’re facing is scoring nearly three goals per game, a change in tact may be required!
Ultimately, Metalurg are too good for Obolon. The bookies have really pulled this one out of the bag because they tend to drastically shorten the odds for good sides in this division and Metalurg at home are certainly one of those sides. Are they forgetting Obolon were only promoted last season and how weak they are on the road? Only time will tell, I daresay, but I’ll back the home win all day long whilst the odds are above 1/2, which is what they should be!
Verdict: Metalurg Zaporizhya to win at 5/6.
Accumulator fodder:
Wacker Innsbruck, Viborg, Lech Poznan, De Graafschap.
Recommended bets:
Lech Poznan, Anderlecht, Metalurg Zaporizhya, and Le Havre at 7/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Ried vs Rapid Vienna (6) 1-2
Austrian Liga 1:
Wacker Innsbruck vs Lustenau (7)
Austria Vienna II vs Gratkorn (5)
St.Polten vs Salzburg II (7) under 2.5 goals
Austria Lustenau vs Hartberg (4)
Dornbirn vs First Vienna (5) over 3.5 goals
Belgian Eertse Klasse:
Sint-Truiden vs Anderlecht (7) over 2.5 goals
Bulgarian A PFG:
Minior Pernik vs Slavia Sofia (6) under 1.5 goals
Danish 1st Division:
Viborg vs Thisted (8) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 2:
Dijon FCO vs AC Ajaccio (6) under 2.5 goals
Bastia vs Angers SCO (4)
Le Havre vs Arles (7) over 2.5 goals
Laval vs Chateauroux (5)
Nimes vs Clermont Foot (5)
Istres vs Strasbourg (5)
Vannes OC vs Brest (6)
Tours vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (7)
Metz vs Sedan-Ardennes (5)
German Bundesliga:
Borussia Moenchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt (6) 1-1
German Bundesliga 2:
1860 Munich vs Arminia Bielefeld (5)
Padeborn vs Rot-Weiss Ahlen (5)
Alemannia Aachen vs Koblenz (6)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Ujpest vs Zalaegerszegi TE (5) 1-2
Irish Premier League:
Bray Wanderers vs Sligo Rovers (5) 0-0
Dundalk vs UCD (5) 1-0
Galway United vs Sporting Fingal (6) 1-2
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Drogheda United (7) 1-0
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians (6) 0-1
Italian Serie B:
Frosinone vs Gallipoli (4)
Salernitana vs Padova (5)
Mexican Primera Division:
Estudiantes Tecos vs Tigres UANL (6) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eredivisie:
RKC Waalwijk vs Vitesse Arnhem (5) 1-2
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Excelsior vs Eindhoven (7) over 2.5 goals
Dordrecht ’90 vs Helmond Sport (7)
Omniworld vs De Graafschap (8)
Oss vs AGOVV Appeldoorn (6)
Zwolle vs Volendam (7)
Fortuna Sittard vs Go Ahead Eagles (5)
MVV Maastricht vs RBC Roosendaal (6)
Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Den Bosch (7) over 2.5 goals
Telstar vs Veendam (7)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Zaglebie Lubin vs Cracovia Krakow (7) 2-0
Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia (8) -1.75 handicap
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Naval de Maio vs CD Nacional (6) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Home United (7) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Hercules Alicante vs Huesca (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Gaziantepspor vs Manisaspor (6) 2-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Obolon Kiev (7) 2-0
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Llanelli (6) 1-1
Welshpool Town vs Cefn Druids (7) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!