Tag Archives: santos

Santos vs America

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Today’s secondary featured game is the Copa Libertadores clash in Brazil between Santos and Mexican outfit America. These two sides both enjoy playing an attack breed of football as they know little else so I expect an entertaining game here.

Have Santos kept a clean sheet at home in the Copa Libertadores this season? No; absolutely not. They’ve shipped four goals in three home games, conceding in all three home games against Venezuelan outfit Deportivo Tachira, Paraguayan giants Cerro Porteno, and Chilean samba side Colo Colo. To be fair to Santos, I can understand why they adopt such an attacking approach to their football – just look at their offensive power! Neymar, Ze Eduardo, Keirrison, Elano, Ganso etc. etc. Therefore, it’s more than reasonable to expect Santos to score here as they’ve now actually bagged eleven goals in six games in the Copa Libertadores. They can’t defend for shit but scoring goals is something that they do well, especially with starlet Neymar looking better with each passing game, so I think we’ll see Santos take the bull by the horns here.

Visitors America only know one brand of football; attack. It’s therefore no surprise that two out of their last three away games on the continent have ended 3-1 and 3-2 respectively, the latter of which was on their last trip to Brazil to face Fluminense. In Vuoso, Sanchez, Marquez, and Reyna, America have a very potent attack, enough so to forget that they’re still without one of the best target men in Latin America – Cabanas. With Brazilian midfielder Rosinei behind them, it’s no surprise at all that America tend to score goals and create over 2.5 goals games. They remarkably kept a clean sheet in their last away game in the Copa Libertadores as they claimed a pricless 0-0 draw in Uruguay with giants Club Nacional de Montevideo, although I’d attribute that scoreline being largely due to the hosts in that game placing a large amount of pressure on talented marksman Garcia, who is still in his tender years. America will have to face a barrage of attacks here and can they handle it? Nope!

What can America do to counter these attacks? Simple; they’ll counter-attack Santos, just as all the other clubs have done and have done successfully too. I’d absolutely hate to pick a winner between these two sides over two legs as both play similar styles of football. Santos have better individuals but it rarely shows due to poor defending. Either way, my call for tonight’s game is for both sides to score at 4/5 as that’s what tends to happen in Santos’ home games and America’s away games and the odds seem to be a tad generous.

Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.


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Wednesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Universitatea Cluj vs Poli Timisoara - over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

We should certainly have an interesting game on our hands here!

Unviersitatea Cluj have nothing left to play for and yet that has seemed to inspire them of late, going unbeaten in seven out of their last eight games and winning five times along the way. Morale is high and why shouldn’t it be? They’ve staved off relegation after promotion last year and they’ve earned it, in my view. Now they’re attacking dangerously with no pressure on them and that makes them an interesting side to watch at the moment. With only long-term absentee Szilagyi absent, I see no reason that Cojocnean, Machado, Niculescu, and Cristea can’t produce some magic here. Cluj’s last four home games in a row have gone over 2.5 goals due to scoring eleven times and conceding five times along the way and I expect that record to increase today.

Visitors Poli Timisoara need the points, simply put. They’re a strong attacking force with arguably the best player in Romania this season – Zicu – pulling the strings. Magera is a decent target man and Helder is a decent midfielder but let’s not beat around the bush – they’re nothing without Zicu, who is happily available today. The problem with Timisoara is when they fail to break down resilient defences due to relying excessively on Zicu to bail them out. However, when they encounter a side that attacks them then we have a clear over 2.5 goals situation, which is precisely what I expect to occur today. Four out of Timisoara’s last five games have not only gone over 2.5 goals but also over 3.5 goals so you can see where I’m coming from here. Three out of their last four away games have gone over 2.5 goals and it’d have been four out of four since the winter break had Victoria Branesti bothered to score against Timisoara’s rather error-prone defence. Timisoara are a goalscoring side and if they have any intention of laying claim to the Liga title then this is the type of game that they’re going to have to win, simply put.

With number one goalkeeper Pantilimon absent for the visitors, the hosts will undoubtedly have opportunities to exploit Timisoara’s already weak defence. However, the visitors boast an excellent player in Zicu and I’m sure we’ll see Timisoara take advantage of Cluj’s lax defending. For me, this game is a nailed over 2.5 goals game – I’m just a bit surprised at the decent odds for the selection.

Team news – Universitatea Cluj miss Szilagyi whereas Poli Timisoara miss Mansour and Pantilimon.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Accumulator fodder:

Vaslui

Recommended bets:

No multiples appeal to me today – sorry, guys!

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

UEFA Champions League:

Real Madrid vs Barcelona (6) 1-1

Copa Libertadores:

Jaguares vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (6) 0-0
Estudiantes De La Plata vs Cerro Porteno (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Once Caldas Manizales vs Cruzeiro (7) 1-1
Santos vs America (7) over 2.5 goals

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Independiente vs El Nacional Quito (6) 0-0
Imbabura vs Espoli Cayambe (6) 2-1
Olmedo Riobamba vs Deportivo Cuenca (5) 1-1
Manta vs Emelec Guayaquil (6) 0-1
Barcelona Guayaquil vs LDU Loja (6) 1-0

English Premier League:

Fulham vs Bolton Wanderers (5) 2-1

French Ligue 1:

Olympique Lyonnais vs Montpellier HSC (7) 2-1
Olympique de Marseille vs OGC Nice (7) 1-0

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Szolnoki MAV vs Vasas Budapest (6) 1-1
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Ferencvaros (4) 1-2
Zalaegerszegi TE vs Siofok (6) 2-1
Debreceni VSC vs MTK Budapest (5) 2-1

Latvian Virsliga:

Liepajas Metalurgs vs FK Ventspils (6) 1-2
Daugava Daugavapils vs Skonto Riga (6) 0-1

Paraguayan Division Profesional:

Sol de America vs Independiente FBC (6) 2-1
Tacuary vs Rubio Nu (6) 1-0
Sportivo Luqueno vs Olimpia Asuncion (7) 0-1

Romanian Liga:

Targu Mures vs Astra Ploiesti (6) 0-0
Unirea Urziceni vs CFR Cluj (6) 0-0
FC Brasov vs Victoria Branesti (7) 2-0
Vaslui vs Universitatea Craiova (8) 2-0
Universitatea Cluj vs Poli Timisoara (5) 1-2

Slovakian Corgon Liga:

Kosice vs Spartak Trnava (6) 1-1

Venezuelan Primera Division:

Caroni vs Zamora (7) 0-1
Aragua vs Trujillanos (6) 0-0
Real Esppor Club vs Carabobo (5) 1-1
Zulia vs Deportivo Tachira (5) 0-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Santos vs Avai

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Today’s featured game is the Serie A encounter between Santos and Avai. Both sides have played well this season and are both currently in the top eight as a result so we should hopefully see a good game of football tonight.

The reason Santos are doing so well is because of the nucleus of home-grown talent in the squad. The likes of Neymar, Ganso, Andre, and Wesley formed an exciting attacking unit and Santos have benefited strongly from it. However, as per usual, Santos have been forced to part with some of those players for financial reasons. Neymar and Ganso are yet to move on despite both being heavily linked with moves abroad. Andre has signed for Dynamo Kiev and Wesley has signed for Werder Bremen to replace Turkish German international Mesut Ozil after his departure to Real Madrid. Santos are used to this kind of problem, however, which is why they’ve signed Rodrigo Possebon from Manchester United and Keirrison on loan from Barcelona. Add those players to a side that already has experienced Edu Dracena and Arouca in it and the problem doesn’t seem too bad. Admittedly, there will be a teething period and it could very well start tonight but Santos remain a very determined unit and should prove to be such again tonight despite having recently lost influential midfielder Wesley.

Santos bring a good level of momentum into this game following four consecutive wins and with seven goals scored along the way, they’re not showing any signs of slowing down despite their departing youngsters, impressively enough. They’ve already won five out of seven at home this season whilst averaging scoring nearly two goals per game so it’s pretty much a given that in-form Santos will score against Avai tonight, just as they have done for the last four consecutive meetings between the two sides.

The big question is “will Avai join the party?”, to which my answer is “yes”. Why? Well, Avai are a plucky side. They’ve got a lot of guile and tenacity and although they do lack in the defensive department, they never seem to be short on goalscoring, although that is a more relevant statement when compared to their home form. Avai do average scoring a goal per away game at present but considering that they average scoring over two goals per home game, it’s not that an impressive record anymore. Avai actually average conceding two goals per away game at the moment so they’ve got defensive problems here before the match begins! Avai were on a barren run before their trip to relegation-threatened Atletico Goianiense last match as they claimed a 2-2 draw, which was their first points and first goals for three consecutive games, a run which included a home game against their opponents tonight, Santos. However, this was little more than a blip on Avai’s form chart as their other head-to-head statistics reveal with both sides scoring at least once in their previous three meetings. Their last game at Santos actually ended 1-3 in favour of Avai earlier this season in the Copa Sudamericana so don’t doubt the visitors today despite their poor run of form – the likes of Caio and Vandinho often have other ideas when sides write them off!

All in all, Santos aren’t at their most complete due to Wesley departing despite the form chart showing otherwise and Avai aren’t as bad as the form chart makes out either. I think the bookies have been just a little lenient with the odds on show tonight as both sides are simply goalscoring sides by nature and their head-to-heads almost always reflect that.  

Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/6.

Thursday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Israel vs Malta – Malta to win with +2.5 goal handicap at 10/11.

I genuinely can’t believe my eyes with these odds. Ok, Israel are a good side on their day if they somehow find an alternative to Benayoun carrying them but they’re not good enough to earn 1/12 here! They’re a decent possession side and they’re not easy to beat but they’re certainly not natural goalscorers. The only time they’ve beaten a side to a sufficient level for the above handicap to fail was a somewhat uncharacteristic 7-0 win against Luxembourg last year – the last time prior to that was Estonia in 2007. Don’t get me wrong here – the likes of Katan, Sahar, and Arbeitman are good strikers, as is Argentinian striker Colautti, but they’re not deadly at this level. Israel are a sound side but they’re simply not ruthless enough to destroy Malta today, in my humble opinion, although they should ultimately win the game.

I’d be the first one to admit that Malta aren’t exactly world-beaters but what they are is hard to break down. They’ve played three games this year. They lost 1-2 at home to Finland despite matching their Scandinavian visitors for the majority of the game. They were then undone 3-0 away from home by a good Germany side before holding Republic of Macedonia to a 1-1 draw at home a few weeks ago. Malta aren’t the walkover side that they used to be. With the likes of Mifsud and Bogdanovic playing abroad, Maltese experience on the continent is starting to increase and their overall football is beginning to show it. They’re not good enough to be taking points off the Israelis today barring a miraculous display but I do think they’re good enough to stop the Israelis from making this a walk in the park. I’ve got scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0 in my head but I’d be surprised to see anything more than that.

Obviously this isn’t a dead certain bet and remember what I said the other day regarding caution when betting on international games! However, the odds on Israel winning this game are too short for my liking so I think giving the Maltese side a +2.5 goal handicap at generous odds of 10/11 could be very worthwhile today if things unfold as I expect them to.

Verdict: Malta to win with a +2.5 goal handicap at 10/11.

Spain vs Netherlands – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.

I don’t really think there’s much I can write here, regrettably! I often have this problem with international selections as there isn’t an awful lot you can write about. Simply put – these are two goalscoring sides with very talented players. Netherlands’ last five consecutive games have gone over 2.5 goals (including a 2-1 win against Spain) and three out of Spain’s last five games have gone over 2.5 goals. Spain’s defence isn’t as good as Netherlands’ but they make up for it by boasting a marginally better attack. Netherlands don’t need to win this game as they’ve already qualified for Denmark 2011 but Spain could do with winning this one as they’re four points clear of Poland with two games remaining and with their last game being away at Poland, three points today would be very welcome indeed. I therefore see Spain attacking a lot and the Dutch having some joy on the counter-attack which leaves me with over 2.5 goals at decent odds. I’d leave the home win though – 8/11 leaves a sour taste in my mouth for a game between two good sides so I’d perhaps hit it in-play if you’re interested in the 1X2 side of this game.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.

No multiples appeal to me today, guys, although feel free to check out my thoughts on the rest of the day’s action below!

UEFA European Championship Qualifier:

Israel vs Malta (6) 1-0

UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier:

Spain vs Netherlands (7) over 2.5 goals

Copa Sudamericana:

Olimpia Asuncion vs Defensor Sporting (4) 2-1
Velez Sarsfield vs Banfield (6) under 2.5 goals

Brazilian Serie A:

Santos vs Avai (5) 2-2
Sao Paulo vs Atletico Goianiense (5) 2-1

Singaporean S-League:

Armed Forces vs Sengkang Punggol (5) over 2.5 goals

Enjoy your free betting tips!