I just don't get it - fuck all to choose from yesterday to a massive list of games today?! Unbelievable! How inconsiderate of the respective governing bodies with their failure to accomodate our gambling needs!!
Anyway, today's featured game is the all-important Ukrainian Premier League encounter between giants Shakhtar Donetsk and reigning champions Dynamo Kiev. Shakhtar have been the better of these two sides since the winter break and I expect that to tell here today, particularly with Dynamo Kiev needing to win this game to have any chance of retaining their crown.
Let's take a quick look at the stadium before the preview proper as I feel it's quite relevant here. Shakhtar Donetsk had the Donbass Arena built in 2009 in time for Euro 2012. It's a spectacular playing surface for a side that likes to play football like Arsenal, as Shakhtar Donetsk do. The stadium was built for the Euros but it was also built exactly to the specifications of Shakhtar Donetsk and the way that Lucescu wanted to build his side as they play a slick, short-passing game without excessive width due to an absence of height in the box. Shakhtar are usually pretty damn dominant at home as it is but with the Donbass Arena having been built, they look more dangerous than ever.
The stadium not only suits Shakhtar but goes against Dynamo, in my opinion. Donbass Arena is a better playing surface, it's longer, but narrower, suiting the congested 4-5-1 of Shakhtar rather than the broad 4-4-2 of Dynamo. Dynamo's defenders aren't the quickest around but Shakhtar's attack is so we already have a dangerous dual on hand, particularly as Dynamo cannot afford to sit back with three points between the two sides and just two games remaining. Dynamo had an unpleasant experience here earlier in the season by losing 2-0 in the Ukrainian Cup, yet another trip here that they couldn't afford to lose but did.
Shakhtar Donetsk have already won thirteen out of fourteen times at home this season, drawing the other game. They average scoring well over two goals per home game but only concede a goal for every 2+ games that they play so it's a tough away game for any side. The reason Shakhtar are so strong at home isn't defensive or attacking prowess, per se - it's their ability to keep the ball and pass it around their opponents. In my opinion, the Shakhtar defence is weaker than it was last season but they're glossed over that with some scintillating football although it ultimately proved to be their downfall against a tactically astute Fulham side in the UEFA Europa League this season. What I do like about this Shakhtar side is that their goals are spread around the team. Striker Luiz Adriano is their leading goalscorer but Jadson, Kravchenko, Willian, Fernandinho, Ilsinho, Douglas Costa, and even lumbering Mariusz Lewandowski get themselves on the scoresheet more often than not so it's hard to stop them scoring as they don't have a specific outlet- again, much like Arsenal. Shakhtar have a lightning counter-attack and they'll be able to showcase that today as Dynamo Kiev will be attacking them so the counter-attack on this long pitch begins to look very dangerous indeed, which I ultimately expect to lead to a Shakhtar win.
Dynamo Kiev have looked a little dubious since returning from the winter break. They looked unable to find the net and incapable of keeping sides out at first and despite rescuing their form since then, they're still not convincing me. They're struggling to beat good sides too much, basically. I personally attribute it to the loss of midfielder Olexandr Aliev over the winter break, who followed ex-Dynamo Kiev manager Yury Semin to Lokomotiv Moscow in his native Russia. The bond that Aliev and leading goalscorer Milevskiy had was unique with their bond often providing a successful outcome for Kiev one way or ther other. However, his departure has left Milevskiy on his own more and limited Dynamo's midfield creativity. Dynamo have a similar number of Brazilians to Shakhtar so creativity naturally isn't too far away but but they look more like a side in transition under Valery Gazzaev rather than the reigning champions of Ukraine and I can't see them getting something today as a result.
Although Shakhtar really don't need to win this game, I think they're going to do so comfortably. Dynamo Kiev don't look anywhere near as good as they were and I actually fancy Shakhtar to give them a bit of a footballing lesson here. I think the gulf between the two sides has widened this season and Shakhtar have the perfect stage to show it by winning the title here. The win itself for Shakhtar at evens is good value but I even fancy a cheeky punt on Shakhtar to win this game with a -1.75 goal handicap at 3/1 - see if lady luck favours you!
Verdict: Shakhtar Donetsk to win at evens.
Wednesday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Cruzeiro - home win at 6/5.
Nacional's 3-1 defeat in Brazil in the first leg of this tie means that whatever the scoreline, they have to win this game. The odds of 6/5 therefore surprise me because Nacional are a damn good side at home and their pitch is not the easiest for Cruzeiro to showcase their flowing football. Nacional are a very experienced side in the Copa Libertadores and show it often at home as one defeat in their last seventeen home games in this competition indicates all too well. Cruzeiro's Brazilian counterparts Flamengo, Sao Paulo, and Palmeiras have all failed to win here during that time; indeed, none of them have even scored here. Uruguayan football is not amongst the best in South America but don't underestimate Nacional tonight - they're a very capable side at home and they need to be tonight. A cruising 3-1 win at weekend against lowly Cerrito won't have hurt them either, giving them something to bring into this game momentum-wise. Cruzeiro, however, haven't played a game, which may leave them a little bit rusty for this game. I have little faith in Cruzeiro on the road anyway because they don't travel well in Brazil, let alone out of it! I mean, look at their record in the Campeonato Mineiro this season - they've lost at Tupi, Ipatinga, Democrata GV, and have drawn in a second meeting with Ipatinga. Cruzeiro are a lot better than all of those sides but simply don't show it away from home. They've not won an away game in the Libertadores in their last six attempts, admittedly only losing once along the way but they have played some damn poor sides during that run like Real Potosi of Bolivia and Deportivo Italia of Venezuela so I'm really not impressed with them. They don't score enough on the road and they concede too easily so I predict a torrid time for them tonight.
Who'll qualify for the next round between these two sides I have no idea. I see a lot of goals and probably a lot of cards in this one tonight between two clubs from neighbouring countries on the big stage. However, I can't overlook the likelihood of Nacional winning this game married up with generous odds of 6/5 so I have to favour the home win here against a poor-travelling Cruzeiro.
Verdict: Club Nacional de Montevideo to win at 6/5.
Sturm Graz vs Wiener Neustadt - home win at 4/6.
This game is completely irrelevant so do approach with caution. However, I can't overlook the generous odds on offer here. Wiener Neustadt have surpassed all expectations with some good displays this season but the fact remains that most of those displays have been at home. They concede an average of two goals per game away from home which is why they've lost ten out of their sixteen away games in the Bundesliga. Sturm Graz, however, are one of the "big four" in Austria so really shouldn't be underestimated as the bookies appear to have done tonight. Their home record isn't as good as what it should be hence them not competing for a European place but they're still a good side. Few sides manage to break through their stubborn defence and although I believe Wiener are capable of doing that, I also believe that Wiener are capable of conceding four goals in this game if Sturm Graz put their minds to it. Motivation will obviously be lower for both sides but to put the home win for a much superior side at 4/6 against a newly-promoted away side that struggle massively on the road is ludicrous, particularly with Wiener losing 3-0 here at the start of the season and failing to score in any of their three meetings with Sturm Graz, drawing the two home encounters with them 0-0. The odds on the home win really should be at least 1/2 or possibly even 1/3 for this game so 4/6 on the home win looks good to me.
Verdict: Sturm Graz to win at 4/6.
Austria Karnten vs LASK Linz - away win at 11/10.
Again, I can only recommend low stakes for an ultimately redundant game but the odds are worth a look here. Austria Karnten are already relegated from the Bundesliga and have nothing to play for. They've deserved relegation due to some shocking football and poor goalscoring form. They've scored just once in their last four games in all competitions (despite two of them being at home!) so they've not taken relegation very well at all, really! They've done better defensively in recent games but they're still just not a threat in front of goal so I don't expect much from them tonight. LASK Linz have massively impressed me in the last few weeks as well as baffling me. They've gone from a side that scored and conceded about four goals per game to a side whose games haven't contained more than two goals for five consecutive games. They're defending so much better that it's unreal although their attacking has suffered too. LASK don't score enough goals as a rule but have done very well on the road of late with goalscoring so I've got some faith in them. Indeed, they've had three consecutive tough away games - a 2-2 draw at out-of-form but dangerous hosts SV Ried, a 0-0 draw at giants Rapid Vienna, and a 0-1 success at giants Sturm Graz - so I've been suitably impressed by their strong tactical displays, enough so to back them tonight. They're playing a poor side tonight and for me the big question is will they score? If they do then the away win looks good to me as I don't see them conceding. For me, 11/10 on LASK to score (and thus win) in this game is a worthwhile punt tonight.
Verdict: LASK Linz to win at 11/10.
Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima Antlers - away win at 5/6.
The odds on the away win here could be better but unfortunately the bookies have priced this pretty well. However, Kashima Antlers are simply too good for newly-promoted Cerezo Osaka. The hosts have made a good start to their campaign and have enjoyed scoring goals, particularly at home. However, they're hosting arguably the best side in Japan currently that are ominously beginning to get into their stride as a comfortable win at home to title rivals Gamba Osaka indicated last match. They've already been embarrassed by one newly-promoted side in the J-League this year by losing at Vegalta Sendai - they'll be keen to avoid other foolish results. Kashima are unbeaten in six games in all competitions, winning their last three consecutively so they do bring good momentum into this game. Their last away game was an impressive win at a strong Yokohama F Marinos side desperate not to lose at home to Kashima Antlers so Kashima impressed me with their incisive finishing and composure overall in that game, which ultimately won them the game. Cerezo Osaka are no mugs but they're beginning to get caught out at home, losing their last two home games in all competitions consecutively, each game being a 0-1 defeat. It's a dangerous record to take into a game against Kashima Antlers and I think the minnows may just discover that the hard way today at none-too-flattering-but-worthwhile odds of 5/6 on the away win.
Verdict: Kashima Antlers to win at 5/6.
Stromsgodset vs Odd Grenland Skien - home win at 10/11.
Stromsgodset's young but determined side are showing composure beyong their years at home of late and it's rocketed them to fourth in the Eliteserien table. Who can fault them here? They've already won all five of their home games this season, which is the best record in the division by some way. They average scoring over two goals per home game and conceding less than a goal per home game so the steely Drammen club look set for a good campaign, avoiding the relegation battle for a change. Stromsgodset have played a couple of poor sides at home but they've beaten some good sides here too, namely Viking Stavanger, in-form Start Kristiansand, and Valerenga Oslo so don't understimate the hosts here although their immaculate record must come to an end sometime.
Odd Grenland Skien have disappointed of late, failing to find the net on a consistent basis and thus failing to win any of their last six games. They've not scored more than once in any of those games which is most unlike them. Odd Grenland's footballing style is the old Real Madrid approach - "we'll score more than you", basically. However, with the goalscoring front somewhat barren, that philosophy tends to fuck them over rather than assisting them. Indeed, they approach saw them annihlated 6-1 in Oslo by Valerenga during their last away game so they may just take a fresh tactical approach tonight or face a similar scoreline. Fortunately for Odd Grenland, the Marienlyst Stadion is artificial turf so they should feel at home but the problem is that they're facing a very strong and determined bunch of players, which is an obstacle that I don't think they're currently capable of overcoming. Hell, Odd Grenland even failed to score at home to defensively-inept Brann Bergen in their last game, which is truly the epitome of poor goalscoring form so I can't see them getting anything from Drammen tonight.
Stromsgodset have won this fixture for two seasons running now and seldom have they looked as strong as they do now during that time. They've got good momentum, great morale, and a promising level of potency so although the odds of 10/11 on the home win aren't as good as I'd hoped, they should still be worth taking against a demoralised and somewhat impotent Odd Grenland tonight.
Verdist: Stromsgodset to win at 10/11.
Dubnica vs MSK Zilina - away win at 10/11.
I was somewhat hesitant about recommending this game today but I'm going to ride it. Dubnica have played well lately and generally avoided defeat but they know that bottom club Kosice are winning games at the moment and are now just three points away from them, worryingly. They need points and today really with their two remaining games after this being an impossible trip to Spartak Trnava and a home game with relegation battlers Kosice, which Dubnica would hate to play as their final game of the season whilst needing to win it. Therefore, Dubnica will have to attack Zilina today, which is frankly suicidal; they're the best side in the division. Zilina are in top form which is why they're walking this league and will win it, in my opinion. A win for them today ensures that the title is theirs so they do have some motivation themselves. With that in mind, this should be quite a good open game with plenty of chances although I don't envision many goals as neither side bursts blood vessels to do so. However, Zilina are the superior side, they've got motivation and masses of momentum following six consecutive wins, so really should do a lot of damage here. Zilina have scored eight goals in their last two away games so they've lost none of their potency despite their clear advantage at the top. They've won their last three meetings with Dubnica at either ground and have won five out of their last six visits to face Dubnica so although 10/11 on the away win is a bit shorter than I'd like, there's still value to be had here tonight.
Verdict: MSK Zilina to win at 10/11.
Real Mallorca vs Real Madrid - lay Real Madrid at 11/8.
This is a dangerous selection for one reason; Cristiano Ronaldo. He's carried Real Madrid this season, frankly, and if he turns up then this could end up an unprecedented 1-4 away win. However, I was extremely impressed with Real Mallorca in their excellent win at Athletic Bilbao at weekend, much as though it irritated me, naturally! They were so well-organised, particularly at the back, and thoroughly deserved their win. Their counter-attacking was effected and their finishing was clinical - basically, the kind of form they've showed at home all season but failed to produce on the road on a consistent basis due to Manzano's defensive tactics. However, Mallorca are on fire currently and are fighting like mad to get that Champions League place so I expect a fiery display from them tonight. They've won fourteen out of seventeen games at home this season, losing only twice - against Sevilla CF and Barcelona - so it's a very good home record. Only reigning champions Barcelona have conceded as few goals at home as Mallorca have this season and the hosts tonight average scoring over two goals per home game so it's easy to see why they're doing so well. They're on a strong burst of momentum following six games without defeat so I think we'll see a good display from the hosts tonight.
The ONO Estadi is not Madrid's favourite venue with just two wins here in their last five visits. Mallorca's team of misfits tend to enjoy causing an upset against their more illustrious visitors and it's something Madrid will have to be wary of tonight. However, I'll reiterate my main point here that if Ronaldo turns up then Madrid can win this game easily because he's the best player in the world, in my opinion. Madrid played a very resolute Osasuna side at home last match and should never have won that game - Osasuna are too solid at the back - but Ronaldo bailed them out twice in that game due to his dogged tenacity and clinical finishing. I'm hoping he has an off-day tonight and that combined with the defensive prowess of Mallorca could see Madrid slip-up tonight as they should have done in their last game. Madrid are beginning to look a little nervous now as they're running out of games and anything but a win here should see them hand the title to Barcelona on a plate, which makes tonight's game very dangerous indeed for the visitors.
This game is Madrid's final hurdle for the title as far as their own games are concerned. If they succeed, then it's down to Barcelona's trip to Sevilla CF, in my opinion. However, this game couldn't have come at a worse time for Madrid in my books. They're struggling to break down resilient sides and have barely managed to win their last two away games, winning 2-1 each time against lowly Almeria and newly-promoted Real Zaragoza so I expect a very tough game for them tonight. Can Madrid win this game? Of course they can - but only if Ronaldo bails them out. I'm banking on Mallorca doing a job on him tonight but frankly odds of 11/8 on one player not turning up tonight looks good value to me - this Mallorca side sure as hell won't lie down for this game.
Verdict: Lay Real Madrid at 11/8.
Arsenal Kiev vs Metalurg Donetsk - home win at 11/10.
I'll be the first to admit that I don't have the greatest amount of faith in Arsenal Kiev's reliability but frankly they're a solid home side as just four defeats in fourteen home games indicates, winning six times along the way. They're not a big goalscoring side but they're not big conceders either. I'd generally stay away from this one because Metalurg Donetsk are the better side but with the hosts having won their last three games consecutively (thus gaining strong momentum) and scoring nine times along the way, you have to feel that they'll put up a good show for this game today. This game may be redundant but Arsenal's momentum doesn't just vanish so I expect them to do a job today.
Metalurg Donetsk are in freefall, making them the perfect side to go against today. They're usually strong defensively but they've leaked six goals in their last four games, which isn't good enough for a compact side like themselves. They lost their last away game 2-0 at Metalist Kharkiv and have won just once in their last eight games, which is a shocking record for a side competing for a European place. They've lost some embarrassing games during that run and have only beaten a meager Illichivets Mariupol along the way so I don't have any faith whatsoever in this side. They look unsteady in their strongest characteristic, they have nothing to play for, and no motivation to get themselves out of their barren form so I don't see them doing anything today.
It's going to be a tight game between these two, particularly with the game not meaning anything, but Arsenal Kiev have the upper hand. They're playing better football currently and are scoring goals for fun whereas demoralised Metalurg are conceding too many goals and have no momentum. With the above in mind, the home win does offer good value whilst it remains at 11/10 or higher although do approach with caution for this one.
Verdict: Arsenal Kiev to win at 11/10.
Deportivo Tachira vs Deportivo Italia - home win at evens.
These odds surprise me. Why? Well, there's three big sides in Venezuela - Caracas, Deportivo Tachira, and Deportivo Italia. They're effectively the "big three" in Venezuela. However, the home advantage is more key in Venezuela than any other country I've ever come across. It's no coincidence that Tachira have won five out of six home games this season whilst scoring an average of over two goals per home game, nor that they've won this fixture for five seasons running now. Tachira are a good, solid home side and show it very often indeed. They've had the upper hand with Italia in recent times, even winning at tonight's hosts in their last meeting, so they're more than capable of doing the same again tonight.
Deportivo Italia don't travel well due to the strong home advantage for each home side in this country. It speak volumes that none of the top three sides in the country have managed to win more than 33% of their away games this season, such is the home advantage. Only a rather random Zamora side can better those paltry records and I can promise you that they won't repeat this feat - they're just not capable of it! Italia have lost three of their seven away games and don't have a good record here so I do expect them to struggle here tonight.
With the above in mind, the home win at evens is surprising to me. I would have thought that the bookies would favour Tachira a shade more than they are with odds of 10/11, for example. However, I'm happy to take the generous odds on the home win for what should be a fairly straightforward game for Deportivo Tachira tonight.
Verdict: Deportivo Tachira to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Estudiantes De La Plata, Ekranas Panevezys, FC Copenhagen, Olympique de Marseille, Argentina, Valerenga Oslo, Rosenborg BK, Bodo Glimt, Lokomotiv Moscow, Young Boys Bern, Basel.
Recommended bets:
Stromsgodset, Olympique de Marseille, Lokomotiv Moscow, and Bodo Glimt at 5/1.
Deportivo Tachira, Estudiantes De La Plata, and Club Nacional de Montevideo at 6/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Copa Libertadores:
Estudiantes De La Plata vs San Luis (8) 2-0
Corinthians vs Flamengo (5) 1-1
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Cruzeiro (6) over 2.5 goals
Baltic League:
FK Ventspils vs Vetra Vilnius (7) 1-0
Ekranas Panevezys vs Flora Tallinn (8) 2-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Mattersburg vs SV Ried (7) 1-0
Sturm Graz vs Wiener Neustadt (7) 2-1
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Austria Karnten vs LASK Linz (5) 0-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Club Brugge vs Zulte-Waregem (6) 1-0
Kortrijk vs Anderlecht (6) 1-2
Sint-Truiden vs AA Gent (5) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
Midtylland vs Brondby (5) 1-1
Randers vs Aalborg BK (6) 1-0
FC Copenhagen vs HB Koge (8) 2-1
Danish 1st Division:
Braband vs Skive (6)
English Premier League:
Fulham vs Stoke City (7) 1-0
Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur (5) 1-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
FC Espoo vs Hameenlinna (6) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
Olympique Lyonnais vs Auxerre (5) 0-0
OGC Nice vs Girondins de Bordeaux (6) 0-1
Racing Club Lens vs Grenoble Foot (7) 2-0
AS Nancy-Lorraine vs Le Mans (6) 0-0
Toulouse vs LOSC Lille (6) 1-2
Lorient vs AS Monaco (7) 2-0
Sochaux vs Montpellier HSC (6) 1-1
Boulogne vs Saint-Etienne (5) 1-0
Paris Saint-Germain vs Valenciennes (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Olympique de Marseille vs Stade Rennais (8) over 2.5 goals
Greek Super League:
PAOK Salonika vs Olympiakos Piraeus (5) 1-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Ujpest vs Kaposvari Rakoczi (7) 2-1
Diosgyori VTK vs Nyiregyhaza Spartacus (5) 1-0
Budapest Honved vs Szombathelyi Haladas (6) 1-1
Kecskemeti TE vs Paksi SE (6) 1-0
Lombard Papa vs Zalaegerszegi TE (6) 1-2
International Friendly:
Argentina vs Haiti (10) -2.75 handicap
Japanese J-League:
Shonan Bellmare vs Vissel Kobe (6) 2-1
Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-Pulse (7) 1-1
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Nagoya Grampus (6) 1-0
Tokyo vs Vegalta Sendai (6) 2-1
Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima Antlers (7) 0-1
Albirex Niigata vs Yokohama F Marinos (5) 0-0
Jubilo Iwata vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (5) over 2.5 goals
Montedio Yamagata vs Omiya Ardija (6) 2-0
Gamba Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale (7) 1-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Sandefjord vs Kongsvinger (5) 1-1
Brann Bergen vs Tromso (8) 1-1
Stromsgodset vs Odd Grenland Skien (7) 2-1
Viking Stavanger vs Haugesund (7) 2-1
Rosenborg BK vs Stabaek (8) 2-0
Valerenga Oslo vs Honefoss (8) over 2.5 goals
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Bodo Glimt vs Lov-Ham Bergen (8)
Strommen vs Moss (6)
Sandnes Ulf vs Alta (5)
Mjondalen vs Follo (7)
Nybergsund vs Fredrikstad (5)
Sarpsborg 08 vs Ranheim (6)
Tromsdalen vs Bryne (6)
Romanian Liga:
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt vs Universitatea Craiova (4) 1-0
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Politehnica Iasi (6) 0-0
Gaz Metan Medias vs Rapid Bucharest (5) 1-1
Steaua Bucharest vs Astra Ploiesti (3) 1-1
Russian Premier League:
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Alaniya Vlavikavkaz (6) 1-0
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Saturn Moscow Oblast (8) 2-0
Dinamo Moscow vs Amkar Perm (7) 1-0
Scottish Premier League:
Hamilton Academicals vs St.Mirren (6) 2-1
Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock (6) 1-0
Falkirk vs St.Johnstone (4) 1-1
Hearts vs Dundee United (6) 2-1
Singaporean S-League:
Tampines Rovers vs Balestier Khalsa (7) under 2.5 goals
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Dukla Banska Bystrica vs Nitra (6) both sides to score
Artmedia Petrzalka vs Kosice (4) 1-2
Ruzomberok vs Senica (7) 2-1
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Slovan Bratislava (5) 1-1
Dubnica vs MSK Zilina (7) 0-1
Tatran Presov vs Spartak Trnava (4) 1-2
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Nafta Lendava vs Domzale (6) 2-1
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Koper (5) 1-0
Rudar Velenje vs Drava (5) 1-0
Gorica vs Interblock Ljubljana (7) 2-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid vs Real Valladolid (5) 0-0
Racing Santander vs Sevilla CF (5) 1-1
Real Zaragoza vs Espanyol (6) 0-0
Osasuna vs Deportivo La Coruna (7) 1-0
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Malaga (6) 2-1
Real Mallorca vs Real Madrid (5) 1-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
BK Hacken Goteborg vs Gefle (5) 1-1
Kalmar vs Halmstads (7) 1-0
Atvidabergs vs Brommapojkarna (7) 0-0
Elfsborg Boras vs Malmo (6) 1-1
Swedish Superettan:
Angelholm vs Ljungskile (5) under 2.5 goals
Falkenberg vs Syrianska Sodertalje (6) over 2.5 goals
Orgryte vs Landskrona BoIS (7) under 2.5 goals
Norrkoping vs Jonkopings Sodra (7)
Trollhattan vs Vasby United (6)
GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors (6)
Swiss Super League:
Young Boys Bern vs St.Gallen (8) over 2.5 goals
Aarau vs Basel (8) 1-2
Swiss Challenge League:
Wil vs Schaffhausen (6) under 2.5 goals
Ukrainian Premier League:
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kiev (7) 2-1
Zakarpattya Uzhhorod vs Tavriya Simferopol (6) 1-1
Karpaty Lviv vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (7) 2-1
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Illichivets Mariupol (8) 2-0
Obolon Kiev vs Vorskla Poltava (7) 0-0
Arsenal Kiev vs Metalurg Donetsk (7) 1-0
Zorya Lugansk vs Metalist Kharkiv (6) 1-2
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Chernomorets Odessa (6) 1-0
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Carabobo vs Caracas (5) 1-1
Deportivo Tachira vs Deportivo Italia (7) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!
Today's featured game is the Tippeligaen match in Drammen between Stromsgodset and Viking Stavanger. The hosts are battling against relegation although if we cast reality unto the wind, they're virtually assured Tippeligaen football next season. Nonetheless, they'll want three points today to make sure of it and what better side to face than an out-of-form Viking Stavanger side that has no motivation for this game? There aren't many sides I'd personally prefer at the present time if I were a Stromsgodset fan, that's for sure! The hosts bear a remarkable home record in that the only three sides to have won more home games than they have are the current top three sides in the Tippeligaen - Rosenborg BK, Molde, and Stabaek. I suppose it's a clear indication of how close Stromsgodset deceptively are to being a real force in this division - well, if they could address their away form issues, that is! Years of dogfight experience gives Stromsgodset a real helping hand here and their home advantage is intimidating for away sides, particularly if the away side isn't playing well or is entering the game without a great deal of motivation. Eight wins from fourteen games and an average of nearly two goals per home game are the fundamental reasons behind Stromsgodset's continuous present in the Tippeligaen. Visitors Viking Stavanger are rapidly obtaining a reputation for being one of the biggest under-achievers in this division despite boasting one of the best Tippeligaen squads, in my opinion. They're currently mid-table with no hope of achieving European football next year or of being relegated and their recent performances have shown that. Viking Stavanger have effectively been lax with their displays; disinterested, if you will. Draws at home to Aalesunds and Sandefjord Fotball are perfect examples to my point. Viking Stavanger simply want this season to be over; Stromsgodset want to ensure they'll be here to play against them next year. Therefore, the home win at 11/10 looks something of a bargain here today.
Sunday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Stromsgodset vs Viking Stavanger - home win at 11/10 - see introduction for full details.
River Plate vs Boca Juniors - away win at 7/5. This game is arguably one of the biggest derbies in the world. Buenos Aires will be covered with the red-and-white of River Plate and the blue-and-yellow of Boca Juniors ahead of tonight's clash. To say that tensions will be running high both in the stadium and outside of the stadium is something of an understatement. I expect cards galore in this game but the one thing that is unusually missing from this game is importance. These two sides are used to being the biggest and best sides in Argentina but neither has indicated that at all in this campaign or the last. River Plate have one just once in nine games so far in their current campaign, which simply isn't good enough on any level for a club of such gigantic size. They've lost three of their last five games and have drawn the other two games. Visitors Boca Juniors started their campaign in a similar poor fashion to River Plate but have picked it up lately, as their recent form of three straight wins all too clearly indicates. With the additional confidence of having won this exact fixture last year, you have to feel that Boca Juniors really have the edge entering this game and have a touch more class so the away win at 7/5 does look rather inviting tonight. That said, derbies of this kind are certainly only worthy of low stakes at best given the relatively unpredictable nature of them, particularly in South America, so do approach with caution.
Mechelen vs Anderlecht - away win at evens. Aside from their fortuitous victory over the 10 men of Anderlecht in this fixture last year, Mechelen have never beaten Anderlecht in a league game in over fourteen years! The records show something like thirteen games and twelve wins for Anderlecht. Any fool knows that Anderlecht boasts the better squad but do they have the momentum to do it tonight? In my opinion - yes. They've won three of their last four games and although their away form hasn't been greatly convincing so far this season, Anderlecht simply have too much quality for Mechelen and will be looking to put some points between themselves and Standard de Liege, who drew yesterday. Hosts Mechelen have enjoyed a good start to this campaign with seven wins from eleven games. They've actually won four from their last five games, too. Have they proven themselves against the big guns, though? They've lost to Standard de Liege and AA Gent already this season, although they did manage to overcome current league leaders Club Brugge at the start of this season. However, what I notice about their fixtures played so far are that the majority of them are very "winnable" games for a side in form. Today is a really big test for them and it'll be interesting to see if they can handle the attacking prowess of Anderlecht. For me, the away win at evens bears great value but feel free to make up your own minds, as ever!
Internacional vs Gremio - home win at 17/20. Let's play a game here - how many derbies can we play in the Brazilian Serie A on the same day just to really piss everyone off? Answer: three games out of seven! Are the Brazilian FA suicidal?! All of these games are going to have riots with the biggest riot no doubt being at this game between Internacional and Gremio! These two rivals have a mass dislike for each other (shock!) but the main difference here tonight is that Internacional have a very real chance of claiming the Serie A title this year. They're currently five points behind out-of-form league leaders Palmeiras but have a game in hand. Wheras Internacional's form of late has been far from perfect, they're a very good home side (nine wins from fifteen games) and have beaten Gremio the last three times they've been here in any competition. Visitors Gremio are also struggling a little for form but have seen their title aspirations all but crushed as a large ten point gap has opened up between themselves and first place Palmeiras with just eight games remaining. Gremio will naturally now fall back to their second aspiration of the season; stopping Internacional winning anything. The desire of both sides to win this game will be strong for varying reasons but hosts Internacional are very good at home, as they've proven already this season, and they're also very good against Gremio in general. Given that Gremio's away form indicates just one win in fifteen games and a staggering ten defeats, you have to feel that this bloody encounter will end with a home win at 17/20.
Sportist Svoge vs Levski Sofia - home win at 11/2 or lay Levski Sofia at 17/10. If you read my preview midweek for Salzburg vs Levski Sofia then you'll know where I'm heading with this call. If you didn't, then go and do so now, lazy fucker! Effectively, Levski Sofia have massive issues on and off the field and have sold numerous big players so their squad is not only demoralised and thin on the ground but also lack cohesion together, something their results have indicated all too well of late. Levski Sofia are suffering against any opponent so I'm sticking my neck out to say that Sportist Svoge will be able to trouble them too, much as fellow promoted side Beroe have already done in the A PFG. For me, the home win at 11/2 or even laying Levski Sofia at 17/10 bears tremendous value today as their problems simply cannot be solved overnight.
Once Caldas Manizales vs Boyaca Chico - home win at evens. Despite an impressive campaign last time out, Boyaca Chico have really struggled for form in this campaign and it's only as it draws towards a close that they're making any kind of attempt to move up the table. That said, a poor away record indicating one win, two draws, and four defeats from seven games is a good marker as to why Boyaca Chico are where they are. Once Caldas Manizales are a simply side to Boyaca Chico in this respect, although their home form is better and their away form is poorer - in fact, they've lost all of their away games in this campaign, the worst record in the entire league. However, Once Caldas Manizales are a force at home - and they have to be - as is indicated by the fact that only five sides have won more home games than they have. Both sides are struggling for consistency but all of the above information points to a home win here at evens.
Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain - home win at 3/4. This game was very nearly called off due to an illness, allegedly, which certainly would have been a talking point! However, the game is set to go ahead and the big news regarding this game is that Paris Saint-Germain are missing Hoarau, Giuly, and Sakho. What does this mean? It means that any hope Paris Saint-Germain had of obtaining a point, or even three points, from this game have now vanished because their squad isn't good enough to cope with these losses. Despite poor domestic form of late, Olympique de Marseille will have gained some momentum from their arduous but aesthetically pleasing victory away to FC Zurich of Switzerland mid-week in the UEFA Champions League. Olympique de Marseille already have a better squad than Paris Saint-Germain without their visitors missing key players but they also boast the home advantage too. Personally, I can only recommend taking the home win at 3/4 here before the odds inevitably drop.
Aris Salonika vs AEK Athens - home win at 6/4. This is quite a risky call but I rate Aris Salonika enough to believe they can win this game and feel that AEK Athens have enough problems at the moment to enable them to lose it, basically. AEK Athens have lost three out of their last four domestic games and also return from a difficult and ultimately disappointing trip mid-week to Belarus as they lost 2-1 to BATE Borisov in the UEFA Europa League match. AEK Athens' season just seems to get worse and worse at each possible opportunity with issues behind the scenes that are clearly affecting the players enough to earn them a red card or two in the majority of the games that they've played lately. The problem with AEK Athens is that they don't have the "big name" players to pull them through difficult times like these. They have a finely balanced squad that is easily disrupted but very difficult to repair. For me, we're starting to witness something of a crisis at AEK Athens and I think this tricky tie with Aris Salonika today could pile further misery upon them. To further my point, Aris Salonika have played three home games so far in the Super League, winning all three games without even conceding a goal. Aris Salonika had no game mid-week so they're fresh and ready for this game and can no doubt smell the blood on AEK Athens, as indeed most sides currently can. Lastly, AEK Athens have managed to beat Aris Salonika in their last two meetings and haven't won here on their last two trips. Therefore, the home win at 6/4 looks to have significant value on it today.
Atalanta Bergamo vs Parma - home win at 11/10. After an impressive away win against Udinese last match, the gritty Atalanta Bergamo look back in business as they host Parma today. Atalanta Bergamo are now unbeaten in four games and are beginning to appreciate their quality and compliment it with confidence and momentum, which is always a dangerous combination - well, for opposing sides, at least! Visitors Parma have made a good start to their Serie A campaign with four wins in eight games, losing just twice along the way. However, Parma have won just one game in their last three and tend to struggle on the road. Bergamo is a tough place for any side lacking in quality and work-rate and Parma are unfortunately missing the former of those two points. This should be a close game between two sides but Atalanta Bergamo's experience in grinding out results should give them the advantage here as well as the momentum they've gained from beating rivals Udinese last match. For me, the home win at 11/10 has some value in it today if everything goes according to plan!
Kawasaki Frontale vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima - home win at 4/5. Hosts Kawasaki Frontale know that a win today will see them leapfrog league leaders Kashima Antlers into first place, something that could prove crucial as there's just four games remaining after this one in the J-League. The hosts take an impressive three-game winning streak into this match, which obviously grants them tremendous momentum. That coupled with the fact that Kawasaki Frontale have won nine from fourteen home games so far this season makes me think that the hosts are set for another win here today, particularly as they appear to be thriving on the pressure whilst title rivals Kashima Antlers are seemingly buckling under the pressure. Visitors Sanfrecce Hiroshima have had a good campaign but I don't think they're good enough to match Kawasaki Frontale and their recent form certainly isn't as they've not won any of their last four games, drawing three times and losing once. Their main strength is being hard to beat but the above suggests that Kawasaki Frontale have more than enough to win this game. For me, the home win at 4/5 bears significant value today.
AZ Alkmaar vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam - away win at 11/8. Despite a fortunate last-minute equaliser against Arsenal mid-week in the UEFA Champions League, I think it's fair to say that AZ Alkmaar are heavily under-performing. Four defeats in their last five games leaves the reigning champions looking more like a side destined for relegation rather than a title challenge! Unfortunately for AZ Alkmaar, they're today facing a side that almost always competes for the Eredivisie title - experience has taught them to do that regardless of what players are available to them. Four wins from their last five games leaves AFC Ajax Amsterdam looking their usual potent selves, particularly as they're actually averaging scoring over three goals per game currently. Ultimately, I think today we're going to witness the reigning champions get taught a lesson in football by a side that has been a real champion many times - AFC Ajax Amsterdam. The visitors should dish out a lesson in quality and consistency today as the above supports so the away win at 11/8 looks like a good bet today.
Fredrikstad vs Molde - home win at 5/4. Although it's realistic to consider Fredrikstad virtually assured of relegation, there's also the additional "what if?" factor that football likes to throw up on occasion so Fredrikstad will be keen to obtain the three points they need to stay in the Tippeligaen for next year's campaign. They've won their last three games in a row, leaving them a daunting opponent for any away side. Poor Molde couldn't be worse placed for this game as they've lost three of their last four games, including their last two away games in a row. Aside from that, whatever happens in this game really doesn't affect Molde as second place has now been officially confirmed as their own. Therefore, a demoralised Molde side lacking in motivation look susceptible to defeat against a highly-motivated and confident Fredrikstad today at 5/4.
Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan - away win at evens. Although suffering injuries on the striker front, Lech Poznan still managed to overcome Wisla Krakow in their last match by a sole goal from hot prospect Robert Lewandowski. The win will have done their confidence a world of good after a shaky run of games that saw them claim just one win in three games. Lech Poznan may still have striker issues as Rengifo and Chrapek are both ruled out of this game but today they're facing much easier opponents - Lechia Gdansk. The hosts have had a massively impressive Ekstraklasa campaign so far but they're drastically punching above their weight, something that I feel is gradually becoming exposed as they've won just one game in their last five, losing three along the way. Lechia Gdansk have injury problems in defence with Kawa, Kozans, Cvirik, and Mysona missing. For a side that suffers a lot defensively when they are at full-strength, this is a hefty blow and one that plays right into the hands of Lech Poznan. The biggest loss of the afore-mentioned is Cvirik, who tends to keep the Lechia Gdansk defence as organised as can be expected. Without him, I fully expect Lechia Gdansk to have issues today with defending. Although I expect a close and somewhat gritty game here, there surely has to be value in the away win at evens in light of the above information!
Maritimo vs Pacos de Ferreira - home win at 4/5. In my eyes, this is something of a no-brainer. Maritimo are simply too good for Pacos de Ferreira. Neither side has made an impressive start to their respective campaigns but the hosts finally won their second game in the Liga Sagres lately against Academica de Coimbra, a result that will have gifted the hosts some good momentum ahead of this game. Neither side are playing their best football at the moment but Maritimo at least have an extra gear they can move up to in due course and also possess the momentum to take them there - Pacos de Ferreira currently have neither of those things. Therefore, the home win at 4/5 looks a good call today.
International vs Astra Ploiesti - home win at 11/10. This is a very risky call indeed when you consider that International have lost all of their five home games so far in the Romanian Liga. However, their away form is stunning; they've won four out of five away games so far, a record matched only by giants Steaua Bucharest! You have to feel that the hosts can surely utilise their impressive away form at home somepoint and I can't see a better opportunity than today as they hosted a fellow promoted side - Astra Ploiesti. The visitors have lost three and drawn two of their five away games so you sense that something has to give between these two sides today! International have got the ability and form to start winning games at home, something their away form shows all too clearly, so I think the home win at 11/10 could prove to be good value today.
CFR Cluj vs FC Poli Timisoara - home win at 11/10. This was definitely a close contender for my featured game today! I had to do a double-take when I saw that the home win for CFR Cluj against FC Poli Timisoara was at 11/10! I almost laughed out loud, I can tell you! Why on earth are they so high? CFR Cluj are twice as good as FC Poli Timisoara - fact! They've beaten FC Poli Timisoara at home in the league for two out of their last three seasons in the Romanian Liga, drawing the other encounter. The visitors may be unbeaten in the Romanian Liga this season but it's only a matter of time before that record is shattered. Have FC Poli Timisoara really been tested yet, though? True, they gained a respectable 0-0 draw at Unirea Urziceni but they were well out of form at the time. FC Poli Timisoara claimed a slender victory over Rapid Bucharest but Rapid Bucharest entered that game on the back of another defeat, thus a loss in morale. Today FC Poli Timisoara take on a very dangerous CFR Cluj that will have been riled from their defeat away to Sparta Prague mid-week. It's not for no reason that CFR Cluj have won four out of five games at home this season, drawing the other, with just two goals conceded. CFR Cluj are a much better side and I can only urge you all to back the home win at 11/10 before the odds inevitably drop!
Real Valladolid vs Deportivo La Coruna - away win at 17/10. These odds surprise me somewhat, too. Deportivo La Coruna aren't a very good away side - facts from past seasons indicate this all too clearly. However, they've looked very good in this campaign with five wins from seven games, winning their last four games consecutively. Having already claimed two wins away from home this season, Deportivo La Coruna are beginning to show that they're a threat both at the Riazor and away from it. To make matters easier for them, they're facing lowly Real Valladolid, a side that I really think will be playing Segunda Liga football next season because they don't have enough quality to stay in the Primera Liga. They've lost three of their last four games and are yet to win a home game in three attempts so far this season. To make matters worse, they can barely gain any squad cohesion to ultimately lead to momentum/consistency because they're often having men dismissed and thus suspended. Real Valladolid have got a lot of problems, to be blunt, and I think Deportivo La Coruna are perfectly placed to take advantage of that at 17/10.
Atletico Gramenet vs Badalona - home win at 5/6. Hosts Atletico Gramenet have won three from four home games so far this season, drawing the other game, thus leaving them unbeaten at home so far. Their form is patchy but they're always reliable on their own turf when it comes to producing the goods. Visitors Badalona (no - not a childish pun on Barcelona!) have lost three of their four away games, winning just once. Although both sides are barely stringing together two wins in a row, both are very similar in the sense that they only turn up in their home games. For that reason, the home win at 5/6 looks something of a no-brainer to me today!
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Gimnasia De La Plata (7) 1-1
River Plate vs Boca Juniors (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Tigre vs Argentinos Juniors (7) 0-1
Colon de Santa Fe vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (5) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs Gold Coast United (7) 1-1
Sydney FC vs Brisbane Roar (7) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Austria Vienna vs LASK Linz (8) -1.75 handicap
Salzburg vs SV Ried (9) over 2.5 goals
Wiener Neustadt vs Sturm Graz (6) 0-1
Rapid Vienna vs SV Mattersburg (8) -1.75 handicap
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Dinamo Minsk vs Torpedo Zhodino (8) 1-0
BATE Borisov vs MTZ-RIPO Minsk (8) 3-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Roeselare vs Club Brugge (9) 1-2
Mechelen vs Anderlecht (7) 0-1
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Antwerp vs Turnhout (7)
Brazilian Serie A:
Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense (5) 2-1
Goias vs Fluminense (4) 1-1
Internacional vs Gremio (7) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Santos vs Sao Paulo (5) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Botafogo vs Flamengo (5) 1-1
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro (6) 1-0
Avai vs Sport Recife (7) 2-0
Bulgarian A PFG:
Sportist Svoge vs Levski Sofia (5) 1-0
CSKA Sofia vs Minior Pernik (9) -2.75 handicap
Colombian Futbol Profesional:
Deportivo Pasto vs Real Cartagena (5) 1-1
Once Caldas Manizales vs Boyaca Chico (7) 2-1
Cucuta Deportivo vs Envigado (7) 2-0
Deportes Quindio vs La Equidad Bogota (6) 1-1
Atletico Junior Barranquilla vs America de Cali (8) 3-1
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (7) 1-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Dinamo Zagreb vs Cibalia (8) 2-1
Cypriot Division 1:
APOP/Kinyras vs AEL Limassol (6) 1-2
APEP vs Doxa (6) 1-0
Ermis vs Aris (6) 1-2, draw no bet
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Ceske Budejovice vs Viktoria Plzen (6) 0-0
Bohemians Prague vs Sparta Prague (8) 0-2
Danish Superligaen:
Esbjerg vs SonderjyskE (8) 2-0
Midtylland vs HB Koge (7) 2-0
FC Copenhagen vs Silkeborg (8) 2-1
Aalborg BK vs Brondby (5) 1-1
Danish 1st Division:
Fyn vs Vestjaelland (6)
Viborg vs Kolding (9)
AB Copenhagen vs Vejle (5)
Frem vs Skive (6)
Fredericia vs Roskilde (9)
Lyngby vs Hvidovre (7)
Naestved vs Thisted (7)
AC Horsens vs Braband (7)
Finnish Veikkausliiga/Ykkonen Play-Off:
JJK Jyvaskyla vs KPV Kokkola (7) 2-1
English Premier League:
Bolton Wanderers vs Everton (7) 1-1
Liverpool vs Manchester United (6) 0-1
Manchester City vs Fulham (7) 2-1
West Ham United vs Arsenal (8) 1-2
French Ligue 1:
Auxerre vs LOSC Lille (7) 1-1
Racing Club Lens vs Toulouse (5) 1-0, draw no bet
Olympique de Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
German Bundesliga:
Hertha BSC Berlin vs VFL Wolfsburg (7) 0-2
Schalke 04 vs Hamburger SV (6) 1-1
VFL Bochum vs Werder Bremen (7) 1-2
German Bundesliga 2:
Karlsruher SC vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (5)
Alemannia Aachen vs Union Berlin (6)
St.Pauli vs Energie Cottbus (7)
Greek Super League:
Levadiakos vs Iraklis (5) 1-0
Panthrakikos vs Larissa (6) 0-1
Aris Salonika vs AEK Athens (7) 2-1
Panathinaikos vs PAOK Salonika (9) 3-1
Xanthi vs Kavala (6) 0-0
Greek B Ethniki:
Diagoros Rodos vs Rhodos (8)
Ilioupoli vs Anagennisi Karditsas (6)
OFI Crete vs Ethnikos Piraeus (8)
Pierikos Katerini vs Thrasivoulos (5)
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Fehervar vs Debreceni VSC (6) 1-2
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo vs Parma (7) 1-0
Bari vs Lazio (6) 0-0
Cagliari vs Genoa (4) 1-0
Fiorentina vs SSC Napoli (8) 2-1
Palermo vs Udinese (7) 2-1
AS Roma vs Livorno (8) 2-0
Siena vs Juventus (8) 0-2
Chievo Verona vs AC Milan (6) 0-0
Japanese J-League:
Nagoya Grampus vs Jubilo Iwata (6) 2-1
Urawa Red Diamonds vs Omiya Ardija (8) 2-0
Shimizu S-Pulse vs FC Tokyo (6) 1-1
Kawasaki Frontale vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (8) 2-1
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Kruoja Pakruojis vs Vetra Vilnius (8) 0-2
LKKA Teledema Kaunas vs FK Siauliai (6) 1-2
FK Taurus Taurage vs Banga Gargzdai (5) 1-1
Ekranas Panevezys vs Suduva Marijampole (6) 2-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Pumas UNAM vs Monterrey (4) 1-1
Puebla vs Morelia (6) 1-2
America vs Guadalajara (7) 1-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
FC Twente Enschede vs Groningen (8) 2-1
AZ Alkmaar vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (7) 1-2
Willem II vs Heerenveen (5) 0-1
NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven (8) 0-2
Norwegian Tippeligaen:
Fredrikstad vs Molde (6) 2-1
Stabaek vs Bodo Glimt (8) 3-1
Odd Grenland Skien vs Lyn Oslo (8) -1.75 handicap
Lillestrom vs Brann Bergen (5) 1-1
Tromso vs Start Kristiansand (7) 2-1
Rosenborg BK vs Aalesunds (4) 1-1
Valerenga Oslo vs Sandefjord Fotball (7) 2-0
Stromsgodset vs Viking Stavanger (8) 2-0
Norwegian Adeccoligaen:
Lov Ham Bergen vs Alta (6)
Nybergsund vs Moss (7)
Mjondalen vs Honefoss (7)
Tromsdalen vs Kongsvinger (6)
Skeid Oslo vs Haugesund (9)
Bryne vs Notodden (7)
Sarpsborg vs Hamarkamaratene (7)
Sogndal vs Stavanger (9)
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Odra Wodzislaw vs Cracovia Krakow (6) 0-0
Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan (7) 0-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Maritimo vs Pacos de Ferreira (8) 1-0
Vitoria Setubal vs Leixoes (6) 0-0
Porto vs Academica de Coimbra (9) -1.75 handicap
Portuguese Liga de Honra:
Freamunde vs Feirense (7)
Carregado vs Sporting Covilha (5)
Romanian Liga:
International vs Astra Ploiesti (6) 1-0
Dinamo Bucharest vs Gloria Bistrita (8) 2-0
Steaua Bucharest vs Rapid Bucharest (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
CFR Cluj vs FC Poli Timisoara (8) 1-0
Russian Premier League:
Amkar Perm vs Tom Tomsk (7) 2-0
CSKA Moscow vs FK Moscow (8) 2-1
Zenit St Petersburg vs Spartak Nalchik (8) 2-0
Kuban Krasnodor vs Dinamo Moscow (5) 1-0, draw no bet
FK Rostov-na-Donu vs Rubin Kazan (6) 1-2
Russian Division 1:
Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs NoSta Novotroitsk (9)
FK Nizhnyi Novgorod vs Vityaz Podolsk (6)
Metallurg Lipetsk vs FK Krasnodor (7)
Salyut Belgorod vs Cherno Novorosisk (8)
Luch-Energiya Vladivostok vs Anzhi Makhachkala (5)
Energiya Khabarovsk vs Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan (6)
Sibir Novosibirsk vs Volga Nizhyni Novgorod (8) over 2.5 goals
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs KamAZ Nab Chelny (6)
Scottish Premier League:
Hamilton Academicals vs Celtic (8) 0-1
Serbian Super Liga:
Rad Belgrade vs Partizan Belgrade (7) 1-2
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Slovan Bratislava vs Spartak Trnava (8) 2-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Villarreal vs Malaga (5) 1-2, draw no bet
Tenerife vs Deportivo Xerez (8) 2-0
Real Valladolid vs Deportivo La Coruna (7) over 2.5 goals
Getafe vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (5) 1-1
Racing Santander vs Osasuna (6) 0-0
Almeria vs Valencia (6) 1-2
Barcelona vs Real Zaragoza (8) 2-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Celta de Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (7)
Numancia vs Salamanca (7)
Elche vs Cartagena (5)
Cadiz vs Real Union Club de Irun (5)
Spanish Segunda B:
Group 1:
Ponferradina vs Osasuna II (7)
Pontevedra vs Sestao River Club (7)
Izarra vs Athletic Club de Bilbao II (5)
Deportivo Alaves vs Eibar (7) at least one red card in this game
Guijuelo vs Compostela (7)
Zamora vs Racing Club de Ferrol (6)
Lemona vs Barakaldo (6)
Group 2:
Atletico Madrid II vs Vecindario (6)
Real Sporting de Gijon II vs Universidad Las Palmas (5)
Cerro Reyes Badajoz vs Real Oviedo (5)
Alcala Henares vs Real Sociedad Gimnastica Torrelavega (7)
Tenerife II vs Lanzarote (6)
Conquense vs Guadalajara (7)
Cacareno vs Toledo (6)
Leganes vs Real Madrid II (7)
Group 3:
Atletico Gramenet vs Badalona (7)
Villajoyosa vs Terrassa (6)
Sant Andreu vs Mallorca II (6)
Espanyol Barcelona II vs Orihuela (6)
Sabadell vs Denia (5)
Logrones vs Gava (6)
Alcoyano vs Benidorm (6)
Alicante vs Valencia II (8)
Ontinyent vs Lleida (8)
Group 4:
Sevilla II vs Melilla (6)
Ceuta vs Moratalla (7)
Sangonera Atletico vs Polideportivo Ejido (7)
Lucena vs Caravaca (7)
Ecije Balompie vs Real Jaen (6)
Aguilas vs Real Murcia II (5)
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Hammarby vs AIK Solna (8) 0-2
Elfsborg Boras vs BK Hacken (8) 2-1
Gefle vs Trelleborgs (5) 1-0
Swiss Super League:
St.Gallen vs FC Zurich (6) 0-1
Sion vs Neuchatel Xamax (7) 1-2
Luzern vs Basel (6) 1-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Biel-Bienne vs Gossau (7)
Turkish Super Lig:
Diyarbakirspor vs Genclerbirligi (7) 0-1
Kasimpasa vs Denizlispor (6) 2-1
Manisaspor vs Antalyaspor (6) 1-1
Ukrainian Premier League:
Zorya Lugansk vs Illichivets Mariupol (6) 2-1
Zakarpattya Uzhhorod vs Shakhtar Donetsk (9) 1-4
Metalist Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava (8) under 2.5 goals
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Aragua vs Deportivo Tachira (7) 1-2
Atletico El Vigia vs Deportivo Anzoategui (6) 1-1
Deportivo Lara vs Zulia (7) 2-0
Mineros de Guayana vs Zamora (7) 1-0
Caracas vs Yaracuyanos (9) 2-0
Monagas SC vs Deportivo Italia (5) 1-1
Trujillanos vs Real Esppor Club (8) 2-1
Llaneros de Guanare vs Carabobo (6) 2-0
Centro Italo vs Estudiantes de Merida (5) 0-1
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I almost can't believe that I'm daring to venture near Salzburg with any kind of bet as I consider them one of the unluckiest sides for me to bet on but here we are! The featured game is between Salzburg and Levski Sofia in the UEFA Europa League. The Austrian hosts have won two games out of two so far, impressively winning 2-1 away to Lazio and 2-0 at home to Villarreal. An unimpressive run of UEFA Champions League qualifiers at the start of the year saw me lose a good deal of faith in the Austrian champions but their results of late have gone some way to convincing me that they're getting back to their best. A win today sees Salzburg virtually assured of qualification in my opinion so they'll surely be going into this game with all guns blazing tonight! The Austrians aren't big goalscorers, however, so why the handicap you ask? Well, the bookies have overlooked some key information about Levski Sofia - over the past few weeks they've had massive issues with the selling of some big players and a massive drop in form as a result. There are massive problems internally and externally, something highly visible from the fact that they lost 4-0 at home to a misfiring Lazio side that somehow managed to lose 2-1 at home to Salzburg! Levski Sofia have lost three of their last four domestic games, drawing the other and I don't think I'm being unfair by saying that three of those games are games that they could have won in the dark with their previous squad. However, issues are now highly visible and embarassing defeats at home to Beroe and at home to Chernomorets Burgas will have knocked the remaining team's confidence in a big way. This game couldn't have come at a worse time for Levski Sofia as they simply don't have the quality to match Salzburg and certainly don't have the momentum for it. For me, taking the home win at -1.75 handicap odds of 10/11 looks a real bargain today - it may even be worth taking a bigger handicap if you feel bold.
Thursday's Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Salzburg vs Levski Sofia - home win with -1.75 handicap at evens - see introduction for full details.
BATE Borisov vs AEK Athens - home win at 8/5. This is a relatively dubious call but I'm going to ride it. Belarus is a difficult place to play in anyway, especially for poor travellers like Greeks AEK Athens. Hosts BATE Borisov have already won the Vysshaya Liga so have 100% focus on this competition. They've lost two games from two so far and can consider themselves rather unfortunate to have lost at home to Everton in their last Europa League outing. The Belarusian side are good and have some good experience in European competition nowadays. As they absolutely must obtain three points today to have any chance of qualification, the hosts will be going all out to win this game today and they do have the quality to achieve the victory. Visitors AEK Athens enter this game with just one win in four games, losing the other three. To say they're under-performing is a pretty big understatement. AEK Athens still have ability but it's showing rarely and a tough night in Belarus against a highly-motivated host is the last thing that this fragile club needs currently with their domestic campaign on the rocks. I'll be surprised if AEK Athens try for anything but a draw here because they've got bigger fish to fry at the moment so the home win at 8/5 could boast some value today.
Celtic vs Hamburger SV - away win at 5/4. I've never been overly fond of backing the away side at Parkhead but frankly, Scottish football has sank to a new low. The league standard in general is slipping so rapidly that if they're not careful, Scotland will lose their co-efficient points and lose a UEFA Champions League place. Celtic have been far from impressive in this competition so far, drawing at home to Rapid Vienna and losing away to Hapoel Tel-Aviv despite leading in that game. Celtic are even struggling to break down clubs in their own league of late with a 0-0 draw at home to Motherwell becoming their latest casualty. Today, however, they welcome a much better side - Hamburger SV - who actually do have the capability to run rings around the Scots. Hamburger SV have only lost one competitive game in their last fourteen games, which was the 3-0 defeat to a very impressive Rapid Vienna outfit in Austria a month or so ago. Celtic aren't good enough to match the Austrians so I can't see a similar result occurring. Celtic never make games easy here but Hamburger SV simply have too much quality and goalscoring potential for the hosts to have any hope of taking anything away from this game. I respect their loyal fans and their successful past but frankly that's all they have nowadays. Even the bookies are giving 2/1 on a home win here and it's no surprise either, considering the lack of actual quality in the squad. For me, the away win at 5/4 is something of a bargain for a very good Hamburger SV to overcome Celtic tonight.
Cerrito vs Danubio - away win at evens. Uruguayan giants Danubio head to Cerrito in an attempt to win their fourth consecutive game. The league leaders have already won three from four away games this season and newly-promoted Cerrito are looking likely to change that with just one win in their last four games, losing two games along the way. The hosts today currently tend to perform better away from home than at home, which isn't very South American at all, really! The visitors have long been one of Uruguay's biggest and best clubs and I thoroughly expect it to show today with the momentum they have and the quality they possess. Frankly, evens on the away win here looks a bargain to me!
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
UEFA Europa League:
Salzburg vs Levski Sofia (9) -1.75 handicap
Lazio vs Villarreal (7) 2-1
Sheriff Tiraspol vs FC Twente Enschede (8) 0-1
Steaua Bucharest vs Fenerbahce (6) 2-1
BATE Borisov vs AEK Athens (6) 1-0
SL Benfica vs Everton (4) 1-1
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Toulouse (8) 2-1
Club Brugge vs Partizan Belgrade (8) 2-0
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Copenhagen (8) 2-1
Sparta Prague vs CFR Cluj (6) 1-1
Austria Vienna vs Werder Bremen (5) 2-2
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs CD Nacional (7) 2-1
FC Poli Timisoara vs Anderlecht (6) 0-0
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs Dinamo Zagreb (8) 3-1
Valencia CF vs Slavia Prague (9) -1.75 handicap
LOSC Lille vs Genoa (7) 1-1
Celtic vs Hamburger SV (7) 0-2
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs Rapid Vienna (8) 1-1
FK Ventspils vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (7) 0-1
Hertha BSC Berlin vs Heerenveen (5) 0-0
Fulham vs AS Roma (6) 1-1
CSKA Sofia vs Basel (6) 1-1
Galatasaray vs Dinamo Bucharest (7) 2-1
Panathinaikos vs Sturm Graz (6) 2-1
Copa Nissan Sudamericana:
Fluminense vs Universidad de Chile (6) 0-0
Danish 1st Division:
Viborg vs Vejle (7)
Russian Division 1:
Energiya Khabarovsk vs Anzhi Makhachkala (6)
Luch-Energiya Vladivostok vs Volgar Gazprom Astrakhan (7)
FK Nizhnyi Novgorod vs NoSta Novotroitsk (6)
Sibir Novosibirsk vs KamAZ Nab Chelny (8)
Ural Sverdlovskaya Oblast vs Volga Nizhnyi Novgorod (6)
Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Vityaz Podolsk (8)
Shinnik Yaroslavl' vs Baltika Kaliningrad (7)
Salyut Belgorod vs FK Krasnodor (7)
Metallurg Lipetsk vs Cherno Novorosisk (6)
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Liverpool Montevideo vs Tacuarembo (7) 2-0
Cerrito vs Danubio (8) 0-2
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro Largo (9) 3-1
Central Espanol vs Penarol (7) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!
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