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Kaiserslautern vs St.Pauli

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As you all know, I posted a lot of different bets on a lot of different leagues. However, I don’t really enter strategies much – I tend to leave that down to the individual. What I would say is that if you want to liaise with someone who knows about winning strategies, about betting in-play, about trading, and a general expert on how to make money, I would heartily endorse http://www.thefootballtradingservice.com/ because I can personally verify for the gentleman that runs it and he absolutely knows what he is doing.

Moving onto today’s secondary featured game, which is in the German Bundesliga and features relegation battlers Kaiserslautern and St.Pauli. The hosts are in a far stronger position than their opponents in the dogfight but as we all know, anything can happen in football and the hosts will be looking to wrap up their survival much sooner rather than later.

Kaiserslautern’s problems since promotion have always been defensively. Offensively, they’ve scored a good number of goals and have caused teams problems. Defensively – only a handful of sides have conceded more Bundesliga goals than they have. Kaiserslautern are in a good vein of form though, with four wins from their last six games. Indeed, they’ve only tasted defeat twice in their last eight games so confidence is high in their camp currently. They won 0-1 at Schalke 04 last match so again, their morale is sky-high. Although I’d rather attacking midfielder Ilicevic could play in this game, Kaiserslautern still have enough to give Lakic the chances he needs to score goals here, particularly with pacey winger Tiffert and emerging Czech midfielder Moravek in their ranks. Kaiserslautern are an attacking side and that’s what I like about them, really. They score goals and thus they win games and although their defence will need improvement in summer, I think it’ll cope today enough for the hosts to claim a useful home win.

Of course, a large portion of my confidence in Kaiserslautern’s defence today comes from St.Pauli’s lack of ability. St.Pauli have lost eight out of their last nine games through a lack of ability and it’s pretty damn likely that it’ll cost them their place in the Bundesliga this year. You’d do well to find a side that works harder than they do and in their defence, they do score goals. However, their defending is absolutely atrocious and that’s perfectly illustrated by the fact that they’ve conceded a minimum of two goals per game for their last seven games in a row. In addition to that, they miss two regular starting defenders – Zambrano and Oczipka – for this game, which is going to harm their vulnerable defence even more. St.Pauli have already lost nine out of fifteen away games in the Bundesliga this season and only VfL Wolfsburg and Schalke 04 have scored less away goals than they have. St.Pauli also average conceding nearly two goals per away game.

Therefore, I’m left with no alternative but to back a home win here at decent odds of 9/10. How on earth St.Pauli hope to contain Lakic with half their defence absent I don’t know. The visitors will work hard and will probably score here but the hosts should score more, simply put, which should all but guarantee their survival. My call is the home win here.

Team news – Kaiserslautern miss Knaller, Correia, Damjanovic, Dick, Lucas, Simunek, Dzaka, Fuchs, Ilicevic, Stulin, and Zellner whereas St.Pauli miss Hain, Kessler, Oczipka, Rothenbach, Volz, Zambrano, Boll, Herber, Hennings, and Sukuta-Pasu.

Verdict: Kaiserslautern to win at 9/10.

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Friday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Gimnasia De La Plata vs Newells Old Boys – home win at evens.

Gimnasia haven’t massively impressed under Cappa but they are attacking more, which is gradually improving them. However, they have the motivation of facing relegation if they don’t win games, which is a pretty big motivation, in my view! They’re in a terrible position domestically and need to improve dramatically or they’ll face the chop. They’re fortunate enough to be facing a side today in Newells Old Boys that has zero motivation for this game whatsoever, hence their dismal form. There’s not a hope in hell of Newells claiming a Copa Sudamericana place and they’re way clear of the drop zone in the averages table so it’s no surprise that they’ve lost eight out of their last eleven Primera Division games. Newells have lost all six away games in the current campaign, averaging conceding over two goals per away game whilst averaging scoring a goal per every two away games. Morale is rock-bottom and I think they’ll get undone tonight be a determined and battling Gimnasia side tonight, who frankly need the points a lot more. Therefore, I can see value in the home win at evens.

Verdict: Gimnasia De La Plata to win at evens.

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Cerezo Osaka vs Albirex Niigata – home win at evens.

I’ve opposed Cerezo Osaka a lot already this season because they’ve sold too many good attacking players over the past year ala Kagawa, for example. However, they’re facing an Albirex Niigata side that suffered a lot pre-season and that should be exposed here. Albirex sold their best player by a mile – Marcio Richardes – to Urawa Red Diamonds. He was everything to them – goalscorer, creator etc. Additionally, they sold two of their most important defenders – Nishi and Nagata – so I think they’ve got a fight on their hands to stay in the J-League this season. The hosts have every oppotunity to win this game with such a weak side facing them as Albirex have only signed J-League 2 players to compensate for their departed players. Cerezo Osaka lack in attackers but the rest of their team is good enough to grind out a low-scoring win here. For me, there’s value in the home win at evens.

Verdict: Cerezo Osaka to win at evens.

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Accumulator fodder:

Fehervar, RKC Waalwijk.

Recommended bets:

Kaiserslautern and Fehervar at nearly 2/1.

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Gimnasia De La Plata vs Newells Old Boys (6) 2-1
Banfield vs Quilmes (4) 1-1

Austrian Liga 1:

Gratkorn vs Hartberg (5) both sides to score
SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau (5)
WAC/St.Andra vs First Vienna (4)
Lustenau vs Grodig (6)
St.Polten vs Admira Wacker (6)

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Standard de Liege vs AA Gent (5) 2-1

Chilean Primera Division:

O’Higgins vs Deportes Iquique (7) 2-0
Union Espanola vs La Serena (7) 2-1

Croatian Prva Liga:

Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Karlovac (6) 1-1
NK Zagreb sv Slaven Koprivnica (5) 0-0

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga

Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 (6) 2-1

Danish 1st Division:

Fyn vs AB Copenhagen (4) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score

English League Two:

Torquay United vs Chesterfield (5)

Faroese Meistaradeildin:

IF Fuglafjordur vs HB Torshavn (6) 1-0

Finnish Ykkonen:

PK-35 Helsinki vs KooTeePee Kotka (5) both sides to score
KPV Kokkola vs PoPa Pori (6)

French Ligue 2:

AC Ajaccio vs Sedan-Ardennes (6)
Chateauroux vs Clermont Foot (5) both sides to score
Stade Lavallois vs Le Havre (5) under 2.5 goals
Metz vs Boulogne (4)
Nantes vs Angers SCO (6)
Reims vs Dijon FCO (5)
Tours vs Grenoble Foot (5)
Troyes vs Nimes (4)
Vannes OC vs Istres (5)

German Bundesliga:

Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg (7) 2-1
Kaiserslautern vs St.Pauli (7) 2-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (5)
Hertha BSC Berlin vs 1860 Munich (7)
VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin (4)
Alemannia Aachen vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (7)
Paderborn vs Osnabruck (5)

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Gyori ETO FC vs Paksi SE (4) 0-1
Fehervar vs Kecskemeti TE (8) over 2.5 goals

Irish Premier League:

Galway United vs Shamrock Rovers (7) 0-1
Bohemians vs Derry City (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Dundalk vs Bray Wanderers (4) 0-1
St.Patrick’s Athletic vs Drogheda United (7) 2-1
UCD vs Sligo Rovers (6) 0-1

Italian Serie B:

Livorno vs Atalanta Bergamo (5) at least one red card in this game

Japanese J-League:

Avispa Fukuoka vs Kashima Antlers (5) 1-1
Vissel Kobe vs Omiya Ardija (6) 1-0
Kashiwa Reysol vs Ventforet Kofu (7) 2-0
Vegalta Sendai vs Urawa Red Diamonds (6) 1-1
Yokohama F.Marinos vs Shimizu S-Pulse (5) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Cerezo Osaka vs Albirex Niigata (7) 1-0
Gamba Osaka vs Montedio Yamagata (6) 2-1
Jubilo Iwata vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (6) 1-1
Nagoya Grampus vs Kawasaki Frontale (5) 2-1

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

MVV Maastricht vs Cambuur Leeuwarden (6)
Eindhoven vs Volendam (5)
Telstar vs Go Ahead Eagles (5)
Zwolle vs Den Bosch (6) over 2.5 goals
Dordrecht ’90 vs Emmen (6) over 2.5 goals
RKC Waalwijk vs RBC Roosendaal (8)
Veendam vs Helmond Sport (4) under 2.5 goals
Almere City vs Fortuna Sittard (5) over 2.5 goals
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Sparta Rotterdam (7)

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Legia Warsaw vs Widzew Lodz (4) 2-2
Zaglebie Lubin vs Lech Poznan (4) 1-1

Polish Liga 1:

Ruch Radzionkow vs LKS Lodz (6) under 2.5 goals

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Pacos de Ferreira vs Vitoria Guimaraes (6) 1-1

Singaporean S-League:

Woodlands Wellington vs Gombak United (7) 0-2

Slovakian Corgon Liga:

MSK Zilina vs Senica (5) 2-2

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Real Valladolid vs Barcelona II (6)

Swedish Allsvenskan:

GAIS Goteborg vs Elfsborg Boras (5) 2-2

Swedish Superettan:

Hammarby vs Brage (6)

Turkish Super Lig:

Sivasspor vs Genclerbirligi (5) 2-1

Ukrainian Premier League:

Tavriya Simferopol vs Volyn Lutsk (7) 2-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Brest vs Vannes OC

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Today’s featured games is the Ligue 2 encounter between Brest and Vannes OC. The hosts have been very impressive in Ligue 2 this year and currently find themselves in fourth place in the table. They’ve won three of their last five games and are unbeaten on that particular run. The main reason for their success has been their consistent home form which has seen them yield five wins from seven games, drawing once and losing just once. Brest are looking twice the side that they were last year and look one of the harder sides to beat currently. Vannes OC, by contrast, are not having a good season. They’re currently thirteenth in the Ligue 2 table with one win and four defeats from their last five games, which isn’t good enough. Whereas their away record isn’t exactly the worst in the league, it’s still poor with three defeats, two draws, and one defeat from their six away games played this year. Vannes OC basically are not looking good enough to take anything from this game so I’m going to call a home win at bargain odds of 5/6 for a very much in-form and reliable Brest.

Friday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Brest vs Vannes OC – home win at 5/6 – see introduction for full details.

Universidad de Chile vs Fluminense – home win at 11/10. I don’t know what it is about Chilean sides playing Brazilian sides but they seem to have more success in stopping their Brazilian counterparts playing football much better than any other South American nation does. Perhaps it’s their dogged style of football that really gets to the Brazilians – I’m not sure. This point was illustrated in the first leg of this game as Universidad de Chile drew 2-2 in Brazil against Fluminense. Universidad de Chile are one of the more experienced continental sides in South America, I think it’s fair to say, and stand a great chance of progressing to the Copa Nissan Sudamericana here tonight against a Fluminense side more focal upon avoiding relegation from Serie A. The hosts have a good enough squad to win this game and the home advantage against a potentially distracted Fluminense makes the home win at 11/10 look a good call tonight.

Liga de Quito vs Velez Sarsfeld – home win at evens. Copa Libertadores reigning champions Liga de Quito tonight host Velez Sarsfeld in the Copa Nissan Sudamericana quarter-final game. An impressive 1-1 draw in Argentina in the first leg leaves the Ecuadorians with the edge as the Argentinians vist their lofty fortress in Quito. Many sides have travelled here and failed so it will take a mighty display from Velez Sarsfeld to avoid falling to a similar fate. What convinces me of this outcome is not only that this is a nightmarish away game for any side and that Velez Sarsfeld have to come here and attack to have a chance of success but also that Velez Sarsfeld’s performances of late have been inconsistent at best. For instance – they’ve beaten lowly Godoy Cruz de Mendoza and newly-promoted Atletico Tucuman but have also lost at home to Newell’s Old Boys. When travelling to a good home side like Liga de Quito, you really need to be at your best. Basically, I don’t think Velez Sarsfeld are currently in a position to get a result here so I think the home win at evens for the Ecuadorians looks a good bet tonight.

Sedan-Ardennes vs Metz – away win at 15/8. I can’t quite fathom why these odds are so long! Visitors Metz are not the best travellers in Ligue 2 – far from it. However, they remain one of the best sides in the division, regardless of that point. Aside from that, Metz have really entered their stride lately with four wins from their last five games. If this statistic isn’t impressive enough for you then consider that all of the sides they have beaten/drawn with in those five games either are a very good side or showed that they can be a very good side last season. Metz have lately won away to Chateauroux and drew away to high-flying Nantes whilst beating Guingamp, Laval, and Strasbourg at home. This list of sides is very impressive, in my humble opinion, and a weak Sedan-Ardennes shouldn’t really pose a great threat here tonight, despite having a decent home record. Sedan-Ardennes have lost three of their last five games, including two embarassing defeats to Nimes and Istres. Therefore, to be frank, the away win at 15/8 could turn out to be a real bargain tonight.

Arles vs Le Havre – away win at 13/8. Although currently unbeaten at home in Ligue 2 this year, hosts Arles will face one of their toughest tests yet as they host a very much in-form Le Havre. The visitors have won three of their last five games, losing just once. Their most recent victory was a monday night 4-0 demolition of promotion rivals Nantes, which will have inspired Le Havre greatly. Arles are doing well with keeping sides out but that record simply has to end soon enough because Arles are punching above their weight. Visitors Le Havre certainly have a classier side and look far more capable of winning this game than the hosts do. For me, the away win at 13/8 could prove to be a great bet tonight, particularly as Le Havre have already won three from seven away games this season, losing just once along the way.

Empoli vs Reggina – home win at evens. Anyone who reads this blog knows that I love my Serie B home wins and Empoli are amongst my favourite sides to back for it, too! Although atrocious away from home, Empoli become a very different side when playing on their own turf as five wins from six home games indicates. Some poor form lately has cast a few doubts in my mind over the reliability of Empoli but they’re hosting a Reggina side tonight that have lost four of their last five games and look destined to fail in this division despite having only joined Serie B from Serie A this year. Comparing Empoli’s superb home record with an average of nearly three goals scored per home game to Reggina’s away record of four defeats from six away games, conceding nearly two goals per away game, you have to feel that there’s potentially a great deal of value in the home win at evens!

Groningen vs Heracles Almelo – away win at 9/5. I never thought I’d see the day that I backed Heracles Almelo to win an away game but here we are! Visitors Heracles Almelo are playing some of the best football that they’ve ever played, in my humble opinion, and have well-earned their current Eredivisie placing of sixth. They’ve won four of their last five games but their most impressive feature is the fact that they’ve won four from six away games this year with only FC Twente Enschede having won more away games this year. Heracles Almelo’s strength isn’t goalscoring; it’s keeping sides out. They’ve conceded just one goal away from home in six games this year, which is pretty damn impressive! Although I formerly rated Groningen as the better of these two sides, statistics for this year show otherwise in a big way. The hosts have lost so many home games that only bottom-placed RKC Waalwijk have lost more home games than they have. Groningen have lost four of their six home games this season and scored a feeble two goals. Considering the lax attack of Groningen and the watertight defence of Heracles Almelo makes me think an away win is very likely here, particularly with the sharp contrast in momentum and ability at the moment, particularly as Groningen are without a win in their past four games and have lost their last two consecutively. For me, there’s potentially some serious value in the away win at 9/5.

Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce – home win at evens. Many people have dubbed Lechia Gdansk’s start to this Ekstraklasa campaign as “fortunate”; maybe they’re right. However, fortune has no place in what will surely be a home win against a weak, newly-promoted Korona Kielce as the visitors have now lost four games in a row. Korona Kielce looked to be playing ok but all of a sudden they’ve completely capitulated and the result is a sharp descent down the Ekstraklasa. The visitors have lost four from five away games in the Ekstraklasa this season and Lechia Gdansk are well-placed to take advantage of that fact. The hosts may have a somewhat impassive home record this year but they’re resilient, experienced in the Ekstraklasa dogfight and won their last game to give them momentum as they enter this game. With all of the above in mind, the home win at evens could be a real bargain today.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Copa Nissan Sudamericana:

Universidad de Chile vs Fluminense (7) under 2.5 goals
Liga de Quito vs Velez Sarsfeld (7) under 2.5 goals

Argentinian Primera Division:

Argentinos Juniors vs Rosario Central (5) 1-1
Independiente vs Gimnasia De La Plata (7) 2-0

Australian A-League:

Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar (7) 2-1

Austrian Liga 1:

Austria Vienna II vs Wacker Innsbruck (8)
SCR Altach vs Gratkorn (8)
Hartberg vs Admira Wacker (8)
Lustenau vs Salzburg II (6)
First Vienna vs Dornbirn (5) over 2.5 goals

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Charleroi vs AA Gent (6) 1-2

Bulgarian A PFG:

Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Montana (7) 1-0

Danish 1st Division:

Viborg vs Skive (8)

English Championship:

Derby County vs Coventry City (4) draw no bet

English FA Cup:

Bristol Rovers vs Southampton (6) 1-1
Notts County vs Bradford City (8) 2-0
Huddersfield Town vs Dagenham & Redbridge (6) 2-1

French Ligue 2:

AC Ajaccio vs Dijon FCO (6)
Angers SCO vs Bastia (6)
Brest vs Vannes OC (8)
Clermont Foot vs Nimes (7)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Metz (6)
Strasbourg vs Istres (6)
Arles vs Le Havre (6)
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Tours (8)
Chateauroux vs Laval (6)

German Bundesliga:

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt (8) 3-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Kaiserslautern vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (7)
St.Pauli vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (7)
Paderborn vs Koblenz (6)

Greek B Ethniki:

Ilioupoli vs Ethnikos Asteras (7)

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Ujpest vs Fehervar (6) 1-1

Italian Serie B:

Empoli vs Reggina (7)

Dutch Eredivisie:

Groningen vs Heracles Almelo (7) 0-1

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Excelsior (7) over 2.5 goals
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Volendam (6)
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht ’90 (6)
Eindhoven vs Veendam (7)
Fortuna Sittard vs RBC Roosendaal (7)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Haarlem (8)
Helmond Sport vs Top Oss (6)
MVV Maastricht vs Omniworld (8)
Stormvogels Telstar vs Zwolle (7)

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Odra Wodzislaw vs Zaglebie Lubin (5) 1-1
Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce (8) 1-0
Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warsaw (7) 2-1

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Belenenses vs Pacos de Ferreira (6) under 2.5 goals

Romanian Liga:

Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Gloria Bistrita (7) 2-0
International vs Universitatea Craiova (8) 1-1

Singaporean S-League:

Sengkang Punggol vs Woodlands (5) 1-1

Turkish Super Lig:

Bursaspor vs Genclerbirligi (8) 2-0

Welsh Premier League:

Aberystwyth Town vs Bala Town (7) 2-1
Airbus vs Connah’s Quay Nomads (6) 1-0
Haverfordwest County vs Neath Athletic (6) 1-1
Prestatyn Town vs Newtown (7) 2-1
The New Saints vs Newi Cefn Druids (8) 2-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!