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Unirea Urziceni vs Sevilla CF

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Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game between Unirea Urziceni and Sevilla CF in Romania. Visitors Sevilla CF have already qualified for the knockout stage of the Champions League whereas Unirea Urziceni need to take three points here to have a good chance of progressing to the knockout stage too.

Hosts Unirea Urziceni play European football like the average Romanian side does, atypically – in a compact fashion that is designed to frustrate their opponents. They’re unbeaten at home in the Champions League with two 1-1 draws at home to Rangers and VFB Stuttgart, which is respectable. However, they cannot afford to deploy this tactic with Rangers facing Stuttgart in the other group game tonight. They have to attack their Spanish guests, particularly due to their visitors’ injury problems but this could prove to be their downfall.

Visitors Sevilla CF have got injury issues, as I mentioned above, but still take a strong squad to Romania. It’s no coincidence that Sevilla CF have scored three and four goals in their two away games thus far respectively as Manolo Jimenez employs a very attacking brand of football that has granted Sevilla notable success both domestically and in Europe over the past few years. Sevilla took a depleted squad to Tenerife at weekend but still managed a comfortable victory against a side that is good at home, regardless of the quality differential.

Whereas Sevilla CF don’t have to win this game, a win will guarantee them first place in the group which is certainly preferable so I suspect they’ll try to do it. Unirea need the win and thus can’t afford to sit back. Unirea have conceded in all of their games so far so it seems reasonable to expect them to concede against the best attacking side in the group.

Ultimately, I expect quite an open game here and although Romania is always a tough away game for any side, you have to favour the talented Sevilla and their admirable ethos with attacking football. I can’t help but feel that Sevilla will score in this game and win it as the open game would suit them far more than a compact defence would.

With all of the above in mind, the away win at 6/5 looks a real bargain tonight.

Verdict: Sevilla CF to win at 6/5.

Tuesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Rubin Kazan vs Dynamo Kiev – lay Rubin Kazan at 5/6.

Hosts Rubin Kazan have played far better in Europe this year than I’d envisioned. However, I can appreciate just why that is as it’s their maiden voyage in European football which does make sides try harder in general. Their result against Internazionale doesn’t surprise me so much – Italian football is too slow to be successful here and Rubin Kazan play football that Italian sides would hate to play against – pacey and in-your-face. Their result away to Barcelona astounded me but again - a polished defensive display and misfiring hosts gave a shock result. The return fixture was a more expected outcome with Barcelona not even training before their game in Russia due to the cold. The fixture I think we saw the real side of Rubin Kazan in was their trip to Ukraine to face Dynamo Kiev where they were humbled by their giant neighbours 3-1. Kiev made them work hard all game and exploited their weaknesses in a very typically Gazzaev way – a strong feature of their play.

Dynamo Kiev have become very strong again under the management of Gazzaev, former CSKA Moscow manager. He’s very tactically astute and his players always do their jobs. Dynamo Kiev have played well against all of their opponents in each and every game in the Champions League this year and that’s no coincidence considering Gazzaev only took over in summer. Kiev used to struggle away from home – no more. They were desperately unlucky not to win in Milan and put up a good fight in Barcelona. Tonight they face a side that they know they’re better than. The weather won’t affect Dynamo Kiev as much as Barcelona or Internazionale for obvious reasons. There’s no escaping the fact that Dynamo Kiev have the better side and what Gazzaev doesn’t know about Russian sides isn’t worth knowing.

Basically, I’m expecting something of a crazy game tonight between two sides with a lot to prove and the platform on which they can produce it. However, I think Kiev have far more advantages in management, quality, experience, and variety. Rubin Kazan have admitted today that their players haven’t been paid for three months now, which surely has to be on their minds at least a little. Even a little bit of a pre-occupied mind can do massive damage in a football game, particularly tactically, so I think Kiev have a better chance here than people give them, particularly as they enter this game having annihlated title rivals Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 at weekend…

Verdict: Lay Rubin Kazan at 5/6.

Debreceni VSC vs Liverpool - both teams to score at 5/6.

Hungarian hosts Debreceni VSC enter this game with nothing to lose and everything to gain, a powerful ally in football more often than not. The hosts are done an injustice by the group table, in my opinion, as they’ve deceptively played good, attacking football and simply been unlucky. For example, let’s consider the fact that Debreceni VSC have scored more goals than Liverpool in this group stage, scoring five in their last two games in fact. They were unlucky to lose at Liverpool in their opening group stage game and didn’t look like the occasion affected them at all. The only game I’ve seen them laid to waste in was their home game with Olympique Lyonnais but one out of four certainly isn’t a bad record for what is unequivocally the worst side in the group.

Visitors Liverpool are having problems that I don’t think I have enough time left on earth to go into. However, it’s been well-documented wherever you are so there’s little I need to fill in here. Effectively, their form, morale, and even players aren’t good enough at the moment for varying reasons and as a result they’ve won one game in their last ten in all competitions. Not only that but they’re missing star striker Fernando Torres for this game and also unpredictable winger/striker Ryan Babel through injury. Liverpool still have enough guile in their side to fashion a goal but their woeful defending of late has been exploited by the majority of sides they’ve played against – frequently, too!

Overall, we have two sides here that simply have to win this game and I think there’s enough good and bad about both sides to see them both score in this game, whatever the outcome.

Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.

Rangers vs VFB Stuttgart – home win at 13/8.

This is a very dubious call as I really don’t rate Scottish football currently but I’m going to ride it as I feel there’s value in it today. Hosts Rangers are notorious for being a difficult side to play against away from home due to their loud crowd and frankly intimidating atmosphere generated as a result. Rangers have lost both of their home games so far and by convincing scorelines too, which is ironic seeing as they’re unbeaten away from home thus far. Nonetheless, Rangers do posses a competent side that are capable of troubling Stuttgart tonight.

Needless to say that the above isn’t enough on its own for me to make a bet on it. The other side of the coin is the woeful form of VFB Stuttgart, who have lost five and drawn five of their last ten games in all competitions, which just isn’t good enough. I don’t doubt that Stuttgart are more than capable of beating Rangers on their day but they’ve been woeful on all fronts this season and I expect that to continue tonight, much as it did when this fixture was played in Germany a couple of months ago.

This should be a really tight game between two average sides but I think Rangers will have the 12th man tonight with their crowd and will just nick it.

Verdict: Rangers victory at 13/8.

Arsenal vs Standard de Liege – home win with -1.75 handicap at 4/5.

I can’t help but feel that this bet really speaks for itself. Standard de Liege aren’t playing good football due to their captain Defour still being injured and now they’re also missing star striker Jovanovic through injury. Arsenal’s attacker woes may be present too but they’ve got more than enough firepower to overcome an under-strength and out-of-sorts Standard de Liege. Frankly, Arsenal are the better side and even their second string should be able to beat the handicap here tonight to secure a result that would see them end this particular part of the Champions League campaign as group winners.

Verdict: Arsenal to win with a -1.75 goal handicap at 4/5.

Leeds United vs Leyton Orient – home win with -1.75 handicap at 5/6.

This is another no-brainer, much like the game above! Leeds United are dominating this division as expected and average scoring over two goals per game at home. Their momentum is strong and their ability dwarfs that of their opponents. Few sides have conceded more away goals than Leyton Orient with the visitors averaging conceding over two goals per away game. Lastly, Leyton Orient have already lost five out of eight away games this season – it looks very unlikely that this record will change tonight.

Verdict: Leeds United to win with a -1.75 goal handicap at 5/6.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

UEFA Champions League:

Rubin Kazan vs Dynamo Kiev (6) 1-1
Debreceni VSC vs Liverpool (5) 1-2
Fiorentina vs Olympique Lyonnais (6) 2-1
Barcelona vs Internazionale (8) 2-0
Rangers vs VFB Stuttgart (6) 1-0
Unirea Urziceni vs Sevilla CF (8) over 2.5 goals
AZ Alkmaar vs Olympiakos Piraeus (7) 1-1
Arsenal vs Standard de Liege (9) -1.75 handicap

English League One:

Charlton Athletic vs Bristol Rovers (7)
Colchester United vs Stockport County (8)
Exeter City vs Millwall (8)
Gillingham vs Yeovil Town (6)
Hartlepool United vs Southampton (7)
Leeds United vs Leyton Orient (9)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Carlisle United (5)
Norwich City vs Brighton & Hove Albion (8)
Swindon Town vs Huddersfield Town (6)
Tranmere Rovers vs Southend United (6)
Walsall vs Oldham Athletic (6)
Wycombe Wanderers vs Brentford (5)

English League Two:

Accrington Stanley vs Macclesfield Town (6)
Aldershot Town vs Northampton Town (6)
Bournemouth vs Dagenham & Redbridge (7) over 2.5 goals
Bury vs Chesterfield (5)
Cheltenham Town vs Barnet (6)
Crewe Alexandra vs Burton Albion (6)
Darlington vs Morecambe (7)
Grimsby Town vs Bradford City (5)
Hereford United vs Shrewsbury Town (7)
Port Vale vs Torquay United (6)
Rochdale vs Notts County (6) over 2.5 goals
Rotherham United vs Lincoln City (8)

Romanian Liga:

Politehnica Iasi vs Pandurii Targu Jiu (7) 0-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!

SL Benfica vs Naval de Maio

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Today’s featured game is the Liga Sagres encounter between SL Benfica and Naval de Maio. Despite disappointingly (and somewhat strangely) losing to Sporting Braga last weekend, SL Benfica have bounced back with a mid-week victory in England against Everton in the UEFA Europa League. I can’t see SL Benfica needing momentum to beat Naval de Maio either way but it’s still useful to enter a game after you’ve won the previous game. I’m quite happy to write off the Sporting Braga defeat as “just one of those days” as SL Benfica were very unfortunate on the day with quite a number of things, almost too many things you might say, if you were of the suspicious type…which I am. Anyway, the firepower of SL Benfica is frankly worthy of a better league at the present time, such is its efficiency in destroying sides. I mean, the giants of Portuguese football have scored twenty goals at the Estadio de Luz so far this season, which is a terrifying average of five goals per game! They’ve won three from their four home games this season and have only conceded three goals on this crazy run! SL Benfica, to put it bluntly, are looking the best side in Portugal at the moment in my opinion, and I fully expect them to show this again tonight. Visitors Naval de Maio are actually doing well at the moment with three wins from their last four games. However, in that time they’re not come across a side with the deadly attack of SL Benfica, although I have to give credit for their impressive win at Maritimo to start this particular run off. Naturally, the struggling Naval de Maio are largely taking points at home and this is perfectly illustrated by their away record, which reads played four, lost three, won one, scored twice (both in the same game), conceded eight. Effectively, they’re atrocious on the road and currently average conceding two goals per game on the road, although I expect that margin to increase if SL Benfica turn it on tonight. I’m not normally a fan of the bigger handicaps like this but I feel this fixture has all that it needs to see SL Benfica win the game with a -2.75 goal handicap at 7/4.

Monday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

SL Benfica vs Naval de Maio – home win with -2.75 handicap at 7/4 – see introduction for full details.

Huracan vs Arsenal de Sarandi – home win at 23/20. This match is between two sides that are really struggling in the Argentinian Primera Division. However, as I’m sure you’re all aware, the sides in these predicaments tend to win their home games due to their poor away form, hence the predicament that they’re generally in! Eat your heart out, Freud! Anyway, Huracan have managed to win two of their six home games this season already, drawing once and losing three times, which is a decent home record at best. However, more encouragingly Huracan haven’t lost any of their last three home games. They’ve beaten Racing Club Avellaneda 3-1 a few weeks ago and have since drawn with River Plate and beaten Rosario Central without even conceding a goal. Huracan are certainly set in their ways at home and are starting to make it a fortress. Visitors Arsenal de Sarandi have performed quite well lately with two wins in their last three games. Needless to say, however, those wins were at home. Their away form shows they’ve lost their last three away games and have conceded eight goals on that run too. Arsenal de Sarandi’s away form in general is poor with four defeats and one win from five away games this season with them averaging over two goals per away game conceded. Bluntly, this should be a real dogfight of a game but there’s enough favouring Huracan here for me to take them at 23/20.

Slavia Prague vs Viktoria Plzen – lay Slavia Prague at evens. I find it quite baffling that Slavia Prague aren’t hitting their stride yet but I’m here to take advantage of this fact so I’m going to attempt to do so here. Viktoria Plzen have been punching above their weight all season long but credit given where credit is due – they’ve only lost twice on the road in seven games and are unbeaten in their last five games now. The predominant reasoning behind this fact is that Viktoria Plzen rarely concede goals, something they’ve done only four times in their seven away games, which is less than any other Gambrinus Liga outfit. Hosts Slavia Prague are one of the daddies in this league but they’re simply not showing it currently. I thought they’d be weakened after their losses this time around but I didn’t expect them to be quite as weak as they have been. They’ve lost three of their last four games and only managed to score three times in those games. To say that Slavia Prague look out of sorts would be an understatement. Viktoria Plzen haven’t taken a point from here since 2006 but they’ve got the best chance that they’ll ever get to do that today so I’m laying Slavia Prague at evens.

Liverpool vs Birmingham City – under 2.5 goals at evens. I don’t think I need to explain to you all the situation at Liverpool at the present time. They’re not playing good football, they are missing leader Steven Gerrerad and Fernando Torres (who is doing his best to carry them) is playing through the pain barrier. A draw at Olympique Lyonnais last week will have damaged their morale as they’re effectively out of the UEFA Champions League, barring a miracle. Their attention must now return to their league game with Birmingham City, who impressed at home to Manchester City in their last game but failed to score and gain a deserved victory. Birmingham City’s story in the Premier League so far could very well be titled “Playing well; not scoring”, which is effectively what I expect to happen again here tonight. I don’t think Liverpool are great but they really should have enough to get a goal or two here whereas I can’t see Birmingham City doing what they’ve only done four times away from home this season and scoring a goal. For me, taking under 2.5 goals at evens should be a good bet tonight.

AEK Athens vs Larissa – lay AEK Athens at 7/5. There’s an awful lot going on behind the scenes at AEK Athens still and they’re not producing the goods as a result of it. They’ve not won in their last five games in all competitions, games which have included a draw at home to Belarus’ BATE Borisov in the UEFA Europa League and draws away to Aris Salonika and Ergotelis respectively in the Super League. The fact that they’ve won just three games out of nine this season speaks volumes regarding the club’s current demise. Visitors Larissa are a capable side despite what their league placing may suggest. Larissa also enter this game with good momentum after a three-match unbeaten run that has seen them claim two victories and one draw. I personally consier Larissa as a top seven side that aren’t too different from AEK Athens so I think backing Larissa to do what they did here two seasons ago by avoiding defeat at 7/5 could turn out to be a very good bet indeed tonight.

Basel vs Neuchatel Xamax - over 3.5 goals at 6/5. These two crazy Swiss sides have already scored sixty-seven goals between them in just fifteen games each, which is an average of over two goals scored per game for both side. Basel’s form of late and overall ability suggests that they’ll win this game but there’s not a lot of value in that other than as accumulator fodder. However, the fact that they score nearly three goals per game at home on average and that Neuchatel Xamax score nearly two goals per game away from home appears to suggest that we’re in for a heavy goalscoring session tonight. I’d be happier if Neuchatel Xamax were in better form to give them a better chance of scoring more goals but frankly I’m happy with this bet nonetheless. Lastly, games between these two sides have gone over 3.5 goals for four out of their last six encounters so taking over 3.5 goals at 6/5 here tonight could be an inspired bet!

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Argentinian Primera Division:

Huracan vs Arsenal de Sarandi (7) 2-1

Bulgarian A PFG:

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Minior Pernik (6) 1-1

Cypriot Division 1:

APOEL Nicosia vs APEP (9) -1.75 handicap

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Slavia Prague vs Viktoria Plzen (5) 1-1
Slovacko vs Sparta Prague (7) 0-1

English Premier League:

Liverpool vs Birmingham City (7) under 2.5 goals

English Championship:

Barnsley vs Sheffield United (6)

English FA Cup:

Millwall vs AFC Wimbledon (8) 2-1

French Ligue 2:

Nantes vs Guingamp (8)

German Bundesliga 2:

Alemannia Aachen vs Hansa Rostock (7)

Greek Super League:

AEK Athens vs Larissa (5)

Greek B Ethniki:

Ionikos Nikaias vs Thrasivoulos (5) draw no bet

Italian Serie B:

Torino vs Lecce (6)

Norwegian Tippeligaen/Adeccoligaen Play-Off:

Sarpsborg vs Kongsvinger (6)

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

SL Benfica vs Naval de Maio (10) -2.75 handicap

Romanian Liga:

Steaua Bucharest vs Unirea Alba Iulia (8) under 2.5 goals

Swiss Super League:

Basel vs Neuchatel Xamax (8) over 3.5 goals

Swiss Challenge League:

Lugano vs Kriens (7)

Enjoy your free betting tips!