Real Valladolid vs Getafe

Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga game between Real Valladolid and Getafe. Both sides need three points from this game for their respective aims so we should see one of the better games in the Primera Liga between these two sides today.

Real Valladolid looked doomed a few weeks back but the introduction of experienced Javier Clemente to the helm has inspired the hosts back to their difficult, battling selves. A lot of people have forgotten how good Real Valladolid can be in terms of stopping sides playing and taking their chances, which is always a dangerous thing in my opinion. Real Valladolid are two points away from clearing the relegation zone and have just four games remaining so every game is a “must win” for them now. They’re on a good momentum burst, unbeaten in four games and even winning twice along the way. Various aspects of their football have impressed me a lot lately – the determination shown to take the game to their opponents, their cast-iron defence which has conceded just once during those four games, the incisive manner that they’re using to take their chances. Basically, an in-form Valladolid is a very tenacious and difficult opponent and I don’t think anyone’s remembered that nearly well enough, in my opinion. It’s true that Valladolid haven’t had a good season but understimating them is beyond foolish and Getafe know it, having never scored at this ground in the Primera Liga against Real Valladolid.

Visitors Getafe are starting to play well and even have an outside chance of claiming a European place for next season. There’s no way that they’ll make this game easy for Valladolid, particularly with three wins in their past four games to boost their momentum, but their away form in itself should serve as sufficient motivation for the home side to fancy their chances tonight. Getafe have already lost ten out of seventeen away games this season and average conceding approximately 1.5 goals per game on the road, which naturally hinders them. They do manage to score quite a lot of goals on the road too but something happens to them when playing away from Madrid and they tend to look a shadow of their usual selves. This was evident in their last away match as they were beaten 3-2 at Tenerife. Tenerife are battling relegation but the only side that they’ve scored more against at home this season was Espanyol in a 4-1 drubbing with tonight’s hosts Getafe bafflingly losing 3-2. Getafe simply aren’t good enough defensively and although their momentum will make them give Valladolid a good game tonight, it’s hard to see them tearing into a very assured and confident Valladolid side without great labour.

I expect a close game between these two sides but I can only side with an extremely impressive Real Valladolid under a wily and experience Javier Clemente. They’re not conceding goals and they’re taking their chances and with relegation their motivation, the hosts will be more than up for this game. Getafe are fighting for a European place but if you’d have given them this league placing at the start of the season then they’d have taken it so I don’t expect them to burst a blood vessel tonight. Ultimately, I fancy a driven and strong Real Valladolid to do the job against Getafe at very generous but risky odds of 7/5.

Verdict: Real Valladolid to win at 7/5.

Saturday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice - beware!

Allegedly this is a fixed game and most bookies have pulled this. Lechia are safe with nothing to play for and Piast need points. If you’re brave enough to test your “luck” with this game then take X2 with low stakes. Lechia have been playing too well of late to lose this game “legally” so beware!

Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Deportivo Pereira – home win at 3/4.

Atletico Nacional are beginning to make me eat my words! I favour them in Colombia over any other side, I can’t deny that, but a few weeks ago I said that they’d lost their spark and were not one of the top sides anymore. Whereas I stand by that point, they’ve seemingly read this blog decided to pull together and make themselves hard to play against in the Primera A. Indeed, they’re now won their last three home games in Primera A consecutively, scoring an impressive eight times along the way. Atletico tend to struggle on the road but to their credit, they’ve scored in all of their last five Primera A games at home or away so they’re finding the net, which is pleasing and also dangerous for opponents. Atletico can’t defend for shit and are riding the momentum wave but we all know how useful that can be in betting so I’m siding with the hosts tonight, particularly with five wins in seven home games already this season.

Visitors Deportivo Pereira are having a disappointing season and find themselves a lot closer to the bottom of Primera A than they’d like. They’re not nearly as composed as they need to be, drawing far too many games and not winning enough. They don’t score lots or concede excessively but their tally on both fronts tends to leave them without wins more often than with them. They’ve lost three out of seven on the road this season but have seldom looked more likely to lose again due to a lack of momentum following three defeats in their last five Primera A games, drawing twice along the way. Deportivo have lost their last three away games consecutively in Primera A and they’ve looked demoralised of late as a result of it. I personally feel that they’re looking more towards a potential shot at the Copa Colombia this season so the may even rest players tonight if they view it importantly enough.

Deportivo have lost three out of their last five visits here in all competitions and they look likely to do so again tonight. Although the odds are a bit shorter than I’d like them to be, there should still be value in the home win tonight.

Verdict: Atletico Nacional de Medellin to win at 3/4.

Paksi SE vs Gyori ETO FC – away win at 5/4.

I won’t often go against Paksi SE at home but they’re been so poor of late that I have no choice but to do so, particularly at such generous odds. Paksi have dropped like a stone since returning from the winter break and are now even facing the possible threat of relegation. Paksi have failed to win any of their nine Soproni Liga games since returning fom the winter break and have lost their last five games consecutively so morale is an all-time low this season. They’re still scoring goals but are defending so badly that all of their opponents are beating them. They’ve lost four out of their last five home games in the Soproni Liga with only fellow relegation battlers Vasas Budapest failing to win here. Concerningly for Paksi, they’ve conceded two goals in each of their five home games in the Soproni Liga which is an excessive and extremely damaging defensive record which leads Paksi to fear for their Soproni Liga status and indeed they should – nobody will be granting them favours anytime soon and they’ve got no momentum to drag themselves out of this mess so they’re in real trouble currently.

Visitors Gyori ETO FC are one of the hardest sides in the division to beat but they tend to find themselves drawing far more games than they should be. They’re one of the top four sides in Hungary, in my opinion, but a lack of goalscoring potency leaves them somewhat barren at times. They’re strong in defence as their away record indicates with just seven goals conceded in twelve away games. They’ve won five out of their twelve away games in the Soproni Liga but have only lost three times so they’re generally a tough nut to crack. They’re unbeaten since returning from the winter break and bring strong momentum into this game as a result.

Gyori’s win last match has boosted their momentum and they should have enough to do the damage today. Paksi are defending badly enough at home to concede a lot of goals against a goal-shy Gyori side but will struggle to get past their strong defence so I feel that 5/4 on the away could and should be good value today.

Verdict: Gyori ETO FC to win at 5/4.

Szombathelyi Haladas vs Lombard Papa – home win at 10/11.

Haladas have shown a real determination to push away from the drop zone in the second half of their campaign and they’ve done so, already ten points clear of Nyiregyhaza Spartacus. They’re on a great burst of momentum with three wins in their past four games and are much stronger than their league placing indicates, something I think the bookies have underestimated today. They’ve won two out of their last three home games in the Soproni Liga since returning from the winter break with only giants Debreceni VSC able to take points off them along the way. Haladas have scored eight goals in their last four games, which is an average of two goals scored per game, so Haladas certainly have the bit between their teeth currently and it’ll take a braver man than me to go against this awakening dragon!

Visitors Lombard Papa caused a stir when gaining promotion to the Soproni Liga by being very hard to beat. However, since returning from the winter break, they’ve been given an almighty “welcome to the Soproni Liga” with just one win in nine games, conceding particularly heavily of late with ten goals conceded in four games. They’ve lost heavily against Budapest Honved and Diosgyori VTK of late in a fashion that is not what I’d expect from a resilient side like Papa. They’re gradually slipping down the table and are looking a tad demoralised as a result. Papa don’t lose many on the road but their current form and lack of defensive ability leaves them looking very prone ahead of this game today so I think they may just find themselves on the receiving end of a beating today -and not for the first time!

Haladas are playing very well and scoring for fun whereas Papa are conceding heavily and looking demoralised so the home win at 10/11 looks good value to me, particularly with bookies tending to call odds of 4/6 or 8/11 on games like this in the Soproni Liga generally! Haladas are a lot better than people seem to remember so I expect them to do the job today.

Verdict: Szombathelyi Haladas to win at 10/11.

Crotone vs Triestina – home win at 10/11.

Crotone have done remarkably well since gaining promotion from Serie C last season and even stand a chance of making the play-offs to gain promotion to Serie A next season, which I expect to be their motivation today. They’ve only lost three times at home whilst winning nine times in eighteen home games in Serie B so they’re a force at home. They average scoring approximately 1.5 goals per home game and boast one of the best defensive records in the division so they’re a tough side to face, generally speaking. They’ve won three out of their last four games so momentum and confidence are good at the moment and they’ve got five games remaining to stand a chance of making the play-offs so they need to continue winning to stand a chance of completing their previously far-fetched dream.

Visitors Triestina are notoriously poor on the road as ten defeats in eighteen away games this season indicates all too clearly, as well as the fact that they’ve only won twice on the road during that run. They concede approximately 1.5 goals per away game on average and look set to increase that poor record with dismal performances of late granting them four defeats and one draw in their past five games. Triestina are demoralised and worst of all aren’t scoring goals with a tally of just one goal in their past five games. They’re not conceding many goals but every goal conceded at the moment is turning out to be fatal because they’re not scoring goals and this couldn’t have happened at a worse time with relegation just around the corner. Triestina simply cannot afford to sit back and try to soak up pressure here – they must attack and if they do they’ll be hideously exposed by an incisive Crotone and are unlikely to score due to impotence up front.

My only concern here is that the draw looked unusually short when the odds initially came out but odds appear to have had parity restored so this game should end in a home win at decent odds for a calm, composed, and in-form Crotone.

Verdict: Crotone to win at 10/11.

Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka – home win at 4/5.

There’s not a lot between these two sides other than that hosts Kashima have started their campaign better. They’ve won five out of their six home games in all competitions this season with the other game being a draw so the hosts have made a steady and assured start to both their Champions League campaign and their J-League campaign. They’re not peaking yet but I’d be concerned if they were, to be honest. Kashima are one of the top dogs in the division and they consistently show it with efficient displays, particularly at home, so I like the odds on them to win this one today.

Gamba made a slow start to their season but are starting to awaken, which is always dangerous. They don’t score or concede many goals as a rule but they’re going to have to score quite a few to match a dangerous Kashima side today, in my opinion. Gamba have gathered a fair bit of momentum lately with no defeats (including two wins) in their past three games so do approach this game with caution. However, Gamba are nowhere near their best and I genuinely don’t believe they’re good enough to match Kashima at the present time so I think they’ll stutter today.

Kashima have edged past Gamba lately in the head-to-head meetings with no defeats in the last four J-League games between these two sides, winning the last two consecutively. Kashima have won two out of their last three home games against Gamba and have more going for them ahead of today’s game so I feel that there’s value on Kashima to win this clash of the titans at decent odds of 4/5.

Verdict: Kashima Antlers to win at 4/5.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Tokyo – home win at evens.

I can’t substantiate this as much as I’d like but these odds are too good to pass up on. Sanfrecce haven’t played consistently well this season but they’re twice the side that Tokyo are. I think this is another case of the bookies reading too much into Tokyo’s one-off season of glory last year because they’re simply not that good a side! I mean, hell, they’ve already lost three out of four away games this season so that in itself should tell you that they’re not the side that they feigned to be last season by being difficult to beat on the road. They don’t score many goals and they’re facing a Sanfrecce side that are a very capable side on their day so I’m favouring the home side here. Tokyo have only ever beaten Sanfrecce once in the J-League with Sanfrecce winning two out of their last three meetings without conceding a goal in any of those three games. Sanfrecce are ultimately too good for Tokyo and odds of evens are good enough to take Sanfrecce to win this game, in my opinion, with or without good form behind them!

Verdict: Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win at evens.

Stromsgodset vs Valerenga Oslo – home win at 11/8.

This should be one hell of a game! Stromsgodset’s young team are doing what a lot of their older contemporaries have done for a long time by making their hometown of Drammen a stronghold in footballing terms. Stromsgodset have won four out of four games at home this season and are playing good football to boot. Whereas I doubt that a side of such youth can maintain such form all season long, what is certain is that they’re playing well now and they’re a dangerous side to face as a result. They average scoring nearly three goals per home game currently and average conceding just once per home game so it’s easy to see why they’re doing so well. Stromsgodset won this fixture 3-0 last season and they’re playing well enough to match that scoreline today and I’m certainly not going to bet against it happening.

Visitors Valerenga are also causing their fair share of upsets. They’re playing some good football but rather sporadically, which isn’t enough for me to fear them today. Their 6-1 demolition of Odd Grenland last match was highly impressive but you’ll often see two very different Valerenga sides – one for home games and one for away games – and not in the atypical sense. They failed to win against a demoralised and leaky Brann Bergen in their last away game, they were crushed 5-3 by a rampant Start Kristiansand despite doing enough to match them, and have claimed a narrow victory at Sandefjord in their last three away games – hardly convincing, is it? I like Valerenga and I have a lot of respect for them but they defend poorly on the road and don’t turn up far too often. Drammen is not the place to go with this type of form but that’s how they’re approaching it so we should see a good game today.

I think you’d have to say that Valerenga are the better of these two sides although there’s not much in it. However, in Drammen, no side is superior to Stromsgodset and the hosts have made the most of their home advantage this year. They’re prolific at home and their youthful approach has served them well so I expect them to tear holes out of a leaky Valerenga defence and win this game at generous odds although I must emphasise caution on this game as we have two good sides locking horns here!

Verdict: Stromsgodset to win at 11/8.

Ruch Chorzow vs Legia Warsaw - away win at 6/4.

Contary to the above preview, I expect this game to bore the shit out of any viewer. Legia are one of the most boring (but effective) sides in the Ekstraklasa and as such should be able to stifle a usually vibrant and potent Ruch Chorzow. The hosts aren’t known for boring games because they play some good attacking football but Legia bring something akin to a disease to this game with their negative and droll football that appears to infect their opponents consistently. I sometimes wonder if the only way that Legia win games is by boring sides to sleep before scoring goals to win the game but either way, the giants are effective – that cannot be questioned.

Ruch have let themselves down in the latter part of this campaign by not scoring enough goals. I say that in the most respectful fashion, incidentally, because this is arguably Ruch’s finest campaign for years and I have nothing but respect for their footballing style. However, despite winning their last two home games, they’ve elected to do them in very difficult fashion against lowly Polonia Bytom and Odra Wodzislaw, conceding far too many goals in those games and only narrowly winning. Ruch have the advantage of being stronger than most sides when it comes to scoring goals so scoring goals can bail them out of bad situations. However, I don’t envision that happening against a watertight Legia defence today – they’ll need a much more professional display to see the visitors lose this one.

Legia haven’t won here for some time but I’m overlooking that because Wisla’s defeat yesterday blows this Ekstraklasa race wide open. Legia will take great confidence from that outcome and have ground out some good results lately, winning three out of their last four games, arguably their best form of the season so far. The results don’t quite show Legia’s dependency on goalkeeper Mucha in recent times, particularly last match, but momentum remains momentum and Legia certainly have it currently. Legia’s biggest handicap this season has been scoring goals, particularly away from home, but they’ve scored a good number of goals lately so should be able to do so again today.

With Ruch missing arguably their best defender Grodzicki through injury and not defending well to begin with, it’s hard to see them winning this one. However, the impetus is on Legia to win this game and they have the motivation and momentum to win it so I think the odds of 6/4 are good enough to take today although with tentative stakes, of course!

Verdict: Legia Warsaw to win at 6/4.

Accumulator fodder:

Osijek, Tottenham Hotspur, Notts County, Rotherham United, Nomme Kalju, Levadia Tallinn, Flora Tallinn, FC Honka Espoo, Bayern Munich, VFB Stuttgart, FK Ventspils, Skonto Riga, Ekranas Panevezys, MSK Zilina, Slovan Bratislava, Fenerbahce, Dynamo Kiev, Shakhtar Donetsk.

Recommended bets:

Osijek, FC Honka Espoo, Bayern Munich, and Fenerbahce at 4/1.

Real Valladolid and Stromsgodset at 6/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Austrian Liga 1:

SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau (6)

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

AA Gent vs Kortrijk (6) 2-1

Colombian Primera A:

Deportes Quindio vs Real Cartagena (6) 1-1
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin (7) 1-0
Atletico Nacional de Medellin vs Deportivo Pereira (7) 2-1

Croatian Prva Liga:

Istra 1961 vs Inter Zapresic (6) 1-1
Slaven Koprivnica vs Rijeka (6) 2-1
Zadar vs Lokomotiva Zagreb (6) 0-0
Osijek vs Varteks Varazdin (8) over 2.5 goals
Medimurje vs Cibalia Vinkovci (7) 0-0
Karlovac vs Sibenik (5) 0-0
Dinamo Zagreb vs Hajduk Split (4) 1-1, at least one red card in this game

Cypriot Division 1:

AEL Limassol vs Enosis Neon Paralimni (8) 2-1

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905 (6) 2-1
Brno vs Viktoria Plzen (6) 1-1
Teplice vs Kladno (7) 2-1

Danish Superligaen:

Silkeborg vs AGF Aarhus (5) 1-1

Danish 1st Division:

Braband vs AB Copenhagen (7)
Skive vs Viborg (8)

English Premier League:

Birmingham City vs Burnley (7) 1-0
Manchester City vs Aston Villa (5) 2-2
Portsmouth vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (7) 0-0
Stoke City vs Everton (6) 1-2
Tottenham Hotspur vs Bolton Wanderers (8) over 2.5 goals

English League One:

Bristol Rovers vs Norwich City (7)
Carlisle United vs Walsall (6)
Charlton Athletic vs Leeds United (5) over 2.5 goals
Gillingham vs Southampton (5) both sides to score
Hartlepool United vs Exeter City (6) over 2.5 goals
Huddersfield Town vs Colchester United (7) over 2.5 goals
Leyton Orient vs Wycombe Wanderers (7)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Brighton & Hove Albion (5)
Southend United vs Stockport County (7) both sides to score
Swindon Town vs Brentford (7)
Tranmere Rovers vs Millwall (6)
Yeovil Town vs Oldham Athletic (6) under 2.5 goals

English League Two:

Accrington Stanley vs Chesterfield (5)
Aldershot Town vs Lincoln City (7)
Bournemouth vs Port Vale (4)
Bradford City vs Northampton Town (6)
Bury vs Torquay United (7)
Dagenham & Redbridge vs Hereford United (6)
Grimsby Town vs Barnet (6)
Macclesfield Town vs Darlington (7)
Notts County vs Cheltenham Town (9) -1.75 handicap
Rochdale vs Burton Albion (7)
Rotherham United vs Crewe Alexandra (8)
Shrewsbury Town vs Morecambe (6)

Estonian Meistriliiga:

Levadia Tallinn vs Maag Tammeka Tartu (8) -1.75 handicap
Flora Paide vs Flora Tallinn (8) 1-3
Nomme Kalju vs Lootus (8) 2-0
Trans Narva vs Sillamae Kalev (7) 1-1
Kuressaare vs Viljandi Tulevik (5) 0-0

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

FC Honka Espoo vs IFK Mariehamn (8) 2-0

Finnish Ykkonen:

OPS vs PK-35 Helsinki (6)

German Bundesliga:

BV09 Borussia Dortmund vs VFL Wolfsburg (7) over 2.5 goals
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC Berlin (7) 2-0
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hoffenheim (5) 1-1
Schalke 04 vs Werder Bremen (6) 1-0
Bayern Munich vs VFL Bochum (10) -1.75 handicap
Hannover 96 vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (6) 2-1
Koln vs SC Freiburg (7) 1-1
VFB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 (8) over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV vs Nurnberg (6) 1-0

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

MTK Budapest vs Debreceni VSC (5) 1-1
Paksi SE vs Gyori ETO FC (7) 0-1
Nyiregyhaza Spartacus vs Kecskemeti TE (6) 1-1
Vasas Budapest vs Budapest Honved (6) 1-1
Kaposvari Rakoczi vs Fehervar (6) 1-2
Szombathelyi Haladas vs Lombard Papa (7) 2-0

Irish Premier League:

Sligo Rovers vs Sporting Fingal (6) 0-0

Italian Serie A:

Parma vs AS Roma (6) 0-1
AC Milan vs Fiorentina (6) 1-1

Italian Serie B:

Lecce vs Albinoleffe (7)
Reggina vs Ascoli (6) over 2.5 goals
Frosinone vs Cesena (6)
Modena vs Cittadella (7)
Torino vs Gallipoli (7)
Salernitana vs Mantova (5)
Padova vs Sassuolo (6)
Crotone vs Triestina (8)
Piacenza vs Vicenza (7)

Japanese J-League:

Yokohama F Marinos vs Jubilo Iwata (6) 2-1
Vissel Kobe vs Albirex Niigata (6) 0-0
Nagoya Grampus vs Montedio Yamagata (7) 1-0
Vegalta Sendai vs Cerezo Osaka (5) 1-1
Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Kawasaki Frontale vs Shonan Bellmare (7) 2-0
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Urawa Red Diamonds (5) 1-1
Omiya Ardija vs Kyoto Sanga (5) 1-0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Tokyo (6) 2-1

Latvian Virsliga:

Dinaburg Daugavpils vs Liepajas Metalurgs (6) 1-1
FK Ventspils vs Blazma Rezekne (8) 2-0
Jurmala vs Jauniba (6) 1-0
Skonto Riga vs Tranzits Ventspils (9) 3-1

Lithuanian A Lyga:

Tauras Taurage vs Ekranas Panevezys (8) 1-2
Siauliai vs Vetra Vilnius (5) 1-1

Mexican Primera Division:

Pachuca vs Monterrey (5) 1-1
Morelia vs Guadalajara (6) 1-1

Dutch Nacompetitie:

AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Eindhoven (6) over 2.5 goals

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Stromsgodset vs Valerenga Oslo (6) over 2.5 goals

Norwegian Divisjon 1:

Moss vs Lyn Oslo (7)
Sogndal vs Tromsdalen (7)

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice (3) 1-0
Odra Wodzislaw vs Arka Gdynia (5) 2-1
Ruch Chorzow vs Legia Warsaw (6) 1-2
Polonia Warsaw vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (7) 1-1

Portuguese Liga de Honra:

Carregado vs Freamunde (6)
Penafiel vs Trofense (7)
Gil Vicente vs Santa Clara (5)
Desportivo Aves vs Beira-Mar (6)
Fatima vs Estoril (5)
Portimonense vs Varzim (7)
Sporting Covilha vs Desportivo Chaves (5) over 2.5 goals

Romanian Liga:

Universitatea Craiova vs International (6) 1-0
Unirea Alba Iulia vs Steaua Bucharest (4) 0-0
Poli Timisoara vs Otelul Galati (6) 2-1
Vaslui vs Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt (7) 2-0

Russian Premier League:

Terek Grozny vs Lokomotiv Moscow (6) 1-1
Spartak Nalchik vs Dinamo Moscow (7) 1-1

Scottish Premier League:

Hibs vs Hearts (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Aberdeen vs Hamilton Academicals (6) 2-1
Celtic vs Motherwell (7) 2-0
Dundee United vs Rangers (6) 1-1
Falkirk vs St.Mirren (5) 1-1
Kilmarnock vs St.Johnstone (6) 2-1

Slovakian Corgon Liga:

Senica vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (7) 1-1
Kosice vs Ruzomberok (6) 1-0
Slovan Bratislava vs Dubnica (8) 2-1
Spartak Trnava vs Artmedia Petrzalka (7) 2-0
Nitra vs DAC Dunajska Streda (6) 2-1
MSK Zilina vs Tatran Presov (9) -1.75 handicap

Spanish Primera Liga:

Malaga vs Sporting Gijon (6) 1-1
Real Valladolid vs Getafe (6) 1-0
Tenerife vs Racing Santander (6) 2-2
Deportivo Xerez vs Almeria (5) 1-1
Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Zaragoza (6) 2-1
Espanyol vs Valencia CF (6) 1-1
Villarreal vs Barcelona (7) 0-1

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Girona vs Cordoba (5)
Numancia vs Albacete (6)
Huesca vs Cartagena (7)
Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (7)
Las Palmas vs Real Betis Balompie (6)
Celta de Vigo vs Cadiz (5) under 2.5 goals

Swedish Superettan:

Degerfors vs Angelholm (7)
Ljungskile vs Falkenberg (6)
Vasby United vs GIF Sundsvall (4)
Hammarby vs Norrkoping (5) over 2.5 goals
Jonkopings Sodra vs Trollhattan (6)

Swiss Super League:

Sion vs Grasshoppers Zurich (6) over 2.5 goals
St.Gallen vs Neuchatel Xamax (5) 0-0

Swiss Challenge League:

Kriens vs Stade Nyonnais (7)
Wil vs Wohlen (7)
Biel-Bienne vs Vaduz (6)
Winterthur vs Schaffhausen (5) over 2.5 goals
Le Mont vs Locarno (5)

Turkish Super Lig:

Ankaragucu vs Trabzonspor (6) 1-1
Bursaspor vs Kayserispor (7) 2-1
Fenerbahce vs Eskisehirspor (8) 2-0
Istanbul BB vs Galatasaray (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game

Ukrainian Premier League:

Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (6) 0-1
Chernomorets Odessa vs Metalist Kharkiv (7) 1-2
Illichivets Mariupol vs Obolon Kiev (5) 1-1
Dynamo Kiev vs Zakarpattya Uzhhorod (8) -1.75 handicap
Metalurg Zaporizhya vs Shakhtar Donetsk (8) 0-1
Tavriya Simferopol vs Karpaty Lviv (6) 1-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Getafe vs Real Valladolid

Today’s featured game is the Primera Liga encounter between Getafe and Real Valladolid. Hosts Getafe have been on a good run of form lately and find themselves in eighth place in the table. Visitors Real Valladolid are also on a decent run of form but tend to find themselves drawing games rather than winning them, which is undoubtedly a concern for them.

Getafe have already won five out of seven home games this season whilst averaging scoring two goals per game. They’re on a good run of form and have now won four out of their last five games. The Madrid-based side are a reliable force at home and their team news is good with just Boateng as a confirmed absentee for this game, although Rafa is considered a doubt for this game. Getafe have won their last two games consecutively and have even beaten the mighty Valencia this season at home so they’re well-placed so win this game today.

Visitors Real Valladolid have numerous problems entering this game despite going four matches unbeaten lately. Valladolid have lost striker Manucho due to his African Nations committments for the hosts Angola and they’ve also lost key striker Diego Costa through suspension. Valladolid have only managed a paltry seven goals on the road this season so it’s not looking likely to improve without their two best strikers being available. Valladolid have lost three out of seven away games already this season and average conceding nearly two goals per away game. Valladolid are also missing Sisi and there’s a question mark over the fitness of Alvaro Rubio so Valladolid are going to have to do something very unexpected to get a result here today, in my opinion.

With all of the above taken into consideration, it’s very hard for me to overlook a reliable, in-form, and potent Getafe side comfortably disposing of a Valladolid side with some key players missing. I think the odds mentioned below are a bargain and should be taken before they inevitably drop.

Verdict: Getafe to win at 3/4.

Sunday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Sporting Gijon vs Malaga – home win at evens.

Hosts Sporting Gijon have lost their last three games consecutively so their momentum has taken a bit of a battering lately. That said, two of those were away games – where Sporting traditionally struggle – and their home defeat was inflicted by a very good Sevilla side so I’m not going to read too much into it, particularly as Sporting have a very strong home record. They’ve won four out of seven at home this season with their only home defeat being their loss against Sevilla. Only Real Mallorca can match Sporting’s impressive record of just three goals conceded in seven home games this season so to say that they’re hard to score against is something of an understatement. Sporting don’t tend to score many but when they do it tends to be enough for the win.

Visitors Malaga are on a good run and are without defeat in their last five games, winning once and drawing four times. However, they’re without a win on the road all season and look likely to continue that record here today against a very resilient Sporting side. Malaga don’t concede many goals when you consider their league placing in comparison, which probably explains why they’ve drawn more games than they’ve lost away from home this season. That said, Malaga are missing Jordi Pablo, Cuadrado, Obinna, Jesus Gamez, and have doubts over Apono, Manolo, and Duda. To put it bluntly – Malaga are looking pretty stretched ahead of this game and this is one place you must be organised to get a result. However, with so many players missing for Malaga I just can’t see them extending their unbeaten run here today

Although a draw is a perfectly plausible result, I feel Sporting have the edge here with their solid defence and reliable home advantage, particularly against an under-strength Malaga side so I’m going to stick my neck out and call the home win.

Verdict: Sporting Gijon to win at evens.

Almeria vs Deportivo Xerez - home win at 3/4.

Almeria are on an atrocious run of form and deservedly find themselves in seventeenth place in the Primera Liga with no wins in their last five league games, losing four times and drawing once. However, when Almeria do pick up points they’re almost always at home. They’ve taken eight points from a potential twenty-one at home this season and whereas I don’t consider that to be a good record at all, it does indicate where their “strength” actually lies. Only two sides have won at Almeria this season so they’re a hard side to beat. Almeria’s biggest problem is scoring goals but they’ve managed to score five goals in their last five games and should have ample chances against a leaky Xerez today.

Visitors Xerez are one of the worst away sides in the divison with five defeats and two draws out of seven away games this season. They concede over two goals per away game on average and are the joint worst goalscorers away from home this season along with Espanyol with both sides manging a paltry three goals scored on the road. Xerez have lost four games consecutively and are devoid of momentum and even hope I daresay. They’ve lost ten out of fifteen games this season and appear destined for a swift return to the Segunda Liga next season unless things change drastically.

Although Almeria aren’t in good form and don’t score many goals, they do know that their strength is at home in front of their own fans and they’re playing a side that has conceded three goals per game on average for their past four games so they should have enough chances to win against what I consider to be the worst side in the division.

Verdict: Almeria to win at 3/4.

Real Mallorca vs Athletic Club de Bilbao – away win with draw no bet odds of 6/4.

Hosts Real Mallorca have won all seven of their home games this season and average scoring nearly three goals per game. Amazingly, Mallorca boast one of the best defensive records in the division too with just three goals conceded at home all season. However, a disappointing defeat at Malaga last match will have knocked their confidence a little and it doesn’t help their case that they’re missing some big players for this game in Ramis, Nunes and Webo. Mallorca also have doubts over Borja Valero and Varela but the big missing players are defensive stalwarts Ramis and Nunes. Mallorca are going to have to play extremely well without them to keep nightmarish target man Fernando Llorente out of this game and I just don’t think Mallorca will be able to do it.

Athletic Club de Bilbao enter this game in great form with three wins in their last four league games, scoring nine times along the way. Athletic have already won four out of seven away games this season and have won their last three away games consecutively. Athletic are not missing any players that I consider to be key, barring long-term injury Aitor Ocio, so they’ve got a capable squad for this game. They’ve got tremendous attacking potential with Llorente being fed by the likes of Yeste, Susaeta, Martinez, De Marcos, and Muniain. There’s a lot of pace in their attack and a great target man in Fernando Llorente so I expect Bilbao to score a few goals here today, particularly with Mallorca missing two key defenders.

So – am I crazy? I’d like to think not. All records must come to an end at somepoint and there are few harder sides to take on in the Primera Liga than Athletic Club de Bilbao when they’re in-form. Mallorca haven’t beaten them at home in the league since 2005 so Athletic are something of a bogey-side for the islanders. I think Athletic have got enough in their favour today to steal a win in what should be a goal-filled and end-to-end game. Incidentally, I think you have to consder taking former Athletic Club de Bilbao striker Aritz Aduriz to score at anytime against his former club at 7/5 or taking Llorente to score anytime at a bargain 15/8. 

Verdict: Athletic Club de Bilbao to win with draw no bet odds of 6/4.

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Levante – home win at 10/11.

Hosts Rayo Vallecano de Madrid enter this game on the back of two straight wins and boast considerable momentum as a result of those wins. They’ve won four out of eight home games this season and have been beaten just once on that run, averaging scoring over two goals per home game. Rayo are the top goalscorers in the Segunda Liga and should have enough momentum and potency in their tank to be a big threat to Levante today.

Visitors Levante are on a dire run and have lost three out of their last five games, drawing twice along the way. Whereas Levante aren’t a particularly bad side, they do tend to struggle on the road with four defeats in eight away games, winning just once along the way. Levante don’t concede excessively but they simply don’t score enough goals, something perfectly illustrated by the fact that they’ve scored just three times in their last five games. Levante have lost their last three away games consecutively and with little to no momentum to speak of, it’s very hard to see that changing today against an in-form Rayo Vallecano de Madrid.

Verdict: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid to win at 10/11.

Villarreal II vs Real Sociedad – away win at 6/4.

Villarreal II are having a far better season than I’d envisioned so kudos to them for it. They’ve been a real force at home with four wins in eight games, losing just once along the way. Villarreal II enjoy scoring goals which tends to mask the fact that they concede quite a lot of goals too. This particular fact is irrelevant whilst your team is in form or whilst you’re playing against lesser sides. However, today Villarreal II take on one of the best sides in the division and will have to do extremely well to get a result off them too, particularly with just one win to Villarreal II’s name in their past five attempts, losing twice along the way.

Vistors Real Sociedad are deservedly leading the Segunda Liga table with an impressive seven game unbeaten run. They’ve only conceded four goals during this run, hence the predominant reason for their success, and have won five out of those seven games. Real Sociedad have gathered a lot of momentum from this game and are one of the division’s better away sides with just two defeats in eight away games this season, winning three times. Real Sociedad are an experienced side whereas Villarreal II are still newcomers to this division, something that is reflected in their relatively naive play at times.

For me, there’s a real mismatch in quality between these two sides and I can’t help but back the in-form and experienced league leaders to ovecome the out-of-sorts newcomers Villarreal II.

Verdict: Real Sociedad to win at 6/4.

Cadiz vs Gimnastica de Tarragona – away win at 15/8.

The predominant reason behind this bet today is the news that Cadiz are missing seven players for this encounter. Cadiz have a small squad as it is and tend to struggle when they have a full squad available to them. However, when they’re facing injury problems like they are now, there’s no doubt in my mind that Cadiz will really struggle to get anything out of this game. Cadiz have been fairly reliable at home this season with just two defeats in eight games, winning and drawing three of those games. Cadiz don’t tend to score or concede many goals at home but I suspect at least one of those records will change in today’s encounter due to their injuries. Cadiz are on a four-game unbeaten run entering this game so they do have some momentum to work with here. However, being one of the bigger conceding sides in the division certainly doesn’t help their case so I think they might just get a surprise today from Gimnastic de Tarragona.

Visitors Gimnastia de Tarragona are on an odd run with two wins in their past four games, winning both games at home and losing both games on the road. Despite that fact, Gimnastic’s away form is still better than their home form with four wins in eight away games, a record bettered only by Cartagena. Gimnastic’s success is largely attributed to being one of the lowest conceding sides away from home in the division. Unfortunately, Gimnastic don’t tend to score many either which leaves them a little on the knife-edge when it comes to away games. However, they’ll have opportunities against an under-strength Cadiz and they’ve shown recently that they’re capable of taking those chances.

If Gimnastic take the lead in this game then I’m confident that they’ll hold it and take three points. If they fall behind then I’ll be a little more dubious but I think it’s worth the risk for such good odds to take the away win today.

Verdict: Gimnastia de Tarragona to win at 15/8.

Sant Andreu vs Ontinyent – home win at 5/6.

Group leaders Sant Andreu are in fine form and enter this game on the back of four straight wins. They’ve already won twelve out of eighteen games this season and are looking good to make the final play-offs at the end of the season. They’ve won an impressive seven out of nine home games in their group and have drawn the other two. Sant Andreu average scoring nearly two goals per home game and rarely concede at home, which tends to leave them with a home win against the majority of sides. With such strong momentum and potency in their arsenal, it’s hard to look beyond a strong Sant Andreu performance here today

Visitors Ontinyent will no doubt be out to put spokes in the Sant Andreu wheels and they’ve certainly got the away record to cause them problems too. Ontinyent have only been beaten twice on the road this season and have won four times. They concede more than they should in relation to their group placing but they tend to overlook that by scoring a lot of goals too. However, Ontinyent are today taking on one of the better sides in this group and look set for a struggle too. Ontinyent’s problem is that they’re running short on momentum with just two wins in their past five games. Ontinyent’s two away defeats in this group have been their last two away games so the trip to Sant Andreu isn’t the most welcome one at the present time!

With Ontinyent struggling for form, particularly away from home, it’s hard to see an in-form and potent Sant Andreu not taking advantage of that today by taking three points from this game.

Verdict: Sant Andreu to win at 5/6.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Cypriot Division 1:

Ermis vs Apollon Limassol (6) 0-1
Nea Salamis vs APEP (5) 1-0
A.E.Paphos vs APOEL Nicosia (7) 1-2
Aris vs Anorthosis Famagusta (7) 0-2

English FA Cup:

Manchester United vs Leeds United (8) 2-0
Notts County vs Forest Green Rovers (8) over 2.5 goals
Sheffield United vs Queens Park Rangers (7) 2-1
Chelsea vs Watford (8) under 2.5 goals
West Ham United vs Arsenal (7) over 2.5 goals
Tranmere Rovers vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (6) 0-2

Greek B Ethniki:

Agrotikos Asteras vs Thrasivoulos (5) under 2.5 goals
Diagoras Rodos vs Anagennisi Karditsas (8)
Doxa Dramas vs Ethnikos Asteras (7)
Ilioupoli vs Ethnikos Piraeus (5) under 2.5 goals
Kalamata vs Ionikos Nikaias (6)
OFI Crete vs Aigaleo Athens (8)
Olympiakos Volos vs Panserraikos (6)

International Friendlies:

Angola vs Tunisia (7) 0-1
Ghana vs Malawi (8) 2-0

Scottish Premier League:

Celtic vs Rangers (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Hibs vs Hearts (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game

Spanish Primera Liga:

Sporting Gijon vs Malaga (6) under 2.5 goals
Getafe vs Real Valladolid (7) 2-0
Racing Santander vs Tenerife (5) 2-1
Almeria vs Deportivo Xerez (7) 1-0
Real Zaragoza vs Deportivo La Coruna (6) 1-1
Real Mallorca vs Athletic Club de Bilbao (6) over 2.5 goals
Osasuna vs Real Madrid (7) over 2.5 goals

Spanish Segunda Liga:

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Levante (7)
Villarreal II vs Real Sociedad (6)
Cadiz vs Gimnastica de Tarragona (7)
Celta de Vigo vs Real Murcia (6)
Elche vs Las Palmas (6)

Spanish Segunda B:

Group 1:

Celta de Vigo II vs Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa (7)
Montaneros vs Guijuelo (7)
Izarra vs Lemona (6) at least one red card in this game
Pontevedra vs Deportivo Alaves (7)
Ponferradina vs Zamora (9)
Palencia vs Racing Club de Ferrol (8)
Mirandes vs Compostela (7)
Sestao River Club vs Lugo (6)
Barakaldo vs Osasuna II (7)

Group 2:

Real Sporting de Gijon II vs Tenerife II (5)
Cacareno vs Cerro Reyes Badajoz (6)
Real Racing Club Santander II vs Alcala Henares (8)
Alcorcon vs Real Madrid II (8)
Universidad Las Palmas vs Real Oviedo (7)
Lanzarote vs Vecindario (4)
Conquense vs Puertollano (6)
Atletico Madrid II vs Leganes (7)
Guadalajara vs Real Sociedad Gimnastica Torrelavega (6)
Toledo vs Villanovense (6)

Group 3:

Sporting Mahones vs Atletico Gramenet (6)
Sant Andreu vs Ontinyent (7)
Denia vs Lleida (8)
Gava vs Terrassa (7)
Badalona vs Mallorca II (6)
Alcoyano vs Espanyol Barcelona II (8)
Logrones vs Alicante (5)
Sabadell vs Villajoyosa (6)
Benidorm vs Valencia II (8)
Barcelona II vs Orihuela (6)

Group 4:

Ceuta vs Aguilas (8)
Sevilla II vs Marbella (6)
Union Estepona vs Real Betis II (7)
Real Murcia II vs Melilla (5)
Moratalla vs Roquetas (8)
Real Jaen vs Granada (6)
Caravaca vs Polideportivo Ejido (5)
Lucena vs Ciudad de Murcia (6)
Ecija Balompie vs Sangonera Atletico (6)
San Roque vs Jerez Industrial (8)

Enjoy your free betting tips!