Tag Archives: Villarreal

SSC Napoli vs Villarreal

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I must issue the standard UEFA Europa League warning here because it’s the only competition that comes close to rivalling international games for levels of unpredictability so don’t go throwing all your money on these games!

Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game in Naples between SSC Napoli and Villarreal. A lot of people have been impressed by Napoli this season, myself included, but I’m not buying into the idea that it’ll carry on into their European form tonight – they’ve been very poor in European football so far this season.

Napoli are three points behind AC Milan in Serie A at the moment and in all honesty, I think their focus is on the Scudetto rather than the UEFA Europa League because it means more to them for varying reasons. Although the San Paolo crowd wouldn’t allow them to go down with just a whimper, I do think that Napoli won’t be particularly upset to go out of this competition so an unconvincing Napoli display maybe isn’t far away tonight.

Nonetheless, Napoli do need to be respected here as they enter this game on the back of a rivalry success over AS Roma, the first time that they’ve won away from home against Roma in many years, which is a good measure of how far they’ve come. The deadly trio of Lavezzi, Hamsik, and Cavani have lit up Serie A this season and they’re the primary reasons behind Napoli having a very good chance of winning Serie A, in my view. However, on the European scene, they struggle as much as any Italian side, if not even moreso. This side has won just once in six UEFA Europa League games despite a fairly straightforward group containing Liverpool, FC Utrecht, and Steaua Bucharest, requiring a last-ditch goal from Cavani in the final game against Steaua Bucharest to even reach this stage. They’ve looked susceptible in defence and generally just don’t fit in competitions like this. The problem is that I think they’re finally up against a side that will prove that so Napoli could be in trouble tonight, despite the intimidating San Paolo venue.

Visitors Villarreal still have some injury concerns but nothing that troubles me in a game like this. You could point to their form guide and say that they’ve lost two consecutive games, which is very accurate. However, I would add that one was a derby game at home to Levante and the other was an always tough trip to the Riazor so neither is “off the map” in terms of probability. Villarreal play some very good football and keep the ball well and have generally looked good in the UEFA Europa League so far this season, although more notably so at El Madrigal. Villarreal have struggled to score enough goals away from home, which is a little concerning here because Napoli can defend well. However, I’ve covered the away win with draw no bet as I don’t see a talented Villarreal side leaving Naples with a defeat – they’re simply a better side than Napoli, in my view, and it really should show here.

For me, Villarreal have more pace and precision than Napoli and are far more adept on the European stage than the hosts are so I have to favour El Submarino Amarillo here. Cazorla and Senna can dominate the midfield here and Nilmar is deadly on counter-attacks so for me, the away win with draw no bet cover at 6/4 appeals to me.

Verdict: Villarreal to win with draw no bet at 6/4.

Thursday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Metalist Kharkiv vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen – home win with draw no bet at 6/4.

Although Metalist Kharkiv haven’t played a competitive game of football for some time, they’ve been actively playing friendlies and have been busy in the transfer market, signing Argentinian playmaker Blanco from Atletico Lanus and attacker Cristaldo from Velez Sarsfield for hefty sums as they bid to become a leading force in Ukraine, which they’re not far from doing, to be honest. Since they burst onto the European scene back in 2007, they’ve only been beaten three times on home soil, one of which was an unfortunate scoreline and the others were due to not scoring and/or red cards. This Metalist side is very hard to play against away from home so don’t underestimate them here, especially with the likes of Villagra, Cleiton Xavier, Devic, and Taison in their team.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen are having a good season in the Bundesliga but they’re not a particularly good side, in my view. They’ve got a decent starting eleven but if they lose any of those players then they look very vulnerable – just look at what happened when they took on Nurnberg away from home without creative winger Barnetta – they lost 1-0. Bizarrely, they sold striker Helmes in the January transfer window, leaving the burden with recovered Kiessling and an unconvincing Derdiyok – it’s not great, is it? They rely a lot on goals from midfield and generally rely on Barnetta and Augusto far too much but to be fair, they’re very good players. Leverkusen have a good defender in experienced defender Hyypia but he’ll have his hands full with Devic and Taison tonight so I think Leverkusen might struggle here, especially as they’ve only won once away from home in the UEFA Europa League this season.

I’m a bit concerned about Metalist’s lack of competitive games lately but I counter that with the fact that it’s going to be about -17 in Kharkiv, hence the game actually having been moved forward because it’s too fucking cold! Leverkusen will not find this easy whatsoever and as a result of that plus Metalist’s quality, I don’t see the hosts losing this one but they do have a good chance of winning, especially given their decent home form, so the home win with draw no bet at 6/4 appeals to me.

Team news – Metalist Kharkiv have doubts over Edmar, Bordian, and Gueye whereas Bayer 04 Leverkusen miss Ballack, Giefer, and have doubts over Vidal..

Verdict: Metalist Kharkiv to win with draw no bet at 6/4.

Lech Poznan vs Sporting Braga – over 2.5 goals at 6/5.

I really wish that the Ekstraklasa was in operation at the moment because with some competitive match practice, I genuinely think that Lech Poznan would stroll this game, hence Lech Poznan to win at 13/10 appealing to me. However, they’ve only played friendlies, albeit a lot of them, and they’ve sadly looked a little below-par so I’m not sure what to expect here, especially after the recent ruling regarding crowd issues, hence the allocation of 30,000 only for this game due to safety fears in the stadium, 150 of which are allocated for Braga.

However, like in most of Eastern Europe at the moment, Poznan is bitterly cold and the Portuguese side will not find that weather welcoming whatsoever for blatant reasons so the hosts do have a shout here. Lech have been immense in this tournament so far this season, wherever they’ve played, and I fancy them to cause a lot of problems for their slightly more illustrious opponents today.

The bad news was that Lech parted with Peszko during the transfer window, who moved to Koln for a nominal fee and Lech will miss him. However, they’ve been busy themselves, signing Serbian striker Ubigarip from Spartak Subotica, experienced striker Slusarski from Cracovia Krakow, and most impressively of all was the signing of Murawski from Rubin Kazan, who will unfortunately miss tonight’s game. All of these signings, as well as the acquisition of Wolakiewicz from Lechia Gdansk, signal the club’s intent under Jose Maria Bakero and I think they’ll go from strength to strength if they keep him at the helm, particularly with Latvian sensation Rudnevs in attack and Belarusian playmaker Krivets supporting him.

Sporting Braga, on the other hand, are in a pretty bad way. They sold some key players in the transfer window – star striker Mateus to Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk, number one goalkeeper Felipe to Flamengo – and now miss some important players for this game with experienced midfielder Vandrinho, one half of their key attacking duo missing (Paulo Cesar), and two important defenders Paulao and Elderson (Echiejile) both absent. I watched Braga against Porto lately and Braga lacked penetration and any general idea in the final third of the pitch. They’ve been conceding a lot of goals lately and look a shadow of the side that they were last season and I think this tournament has come at a bad time for them.

The weather doesn’t suit Braga at all, as they’ve publicly admitted, so I give the advantage to Lech here. However, with a lack of match practice, the 1×2 market is a “no go” for me. That said, over 2.5 goals at 6/5 looks very generously priced indeed, especially with Braga missing half of their defence and Lech missing Wojtkowiak, being a little rusty, and having the whole support of Poland behind them.

Team news – Lech Poznan miss Wojtkowiak and Murwaski whilst having doubts over Injac whereas Sporting Braga miss Vandinho, Paulo Cesar, Elderson, and Paulao.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.

Basel vs Spartak Moscow - over 2.5 goals at evens.

People are jumping on Basel for this game and I can understand that because they’re an experienced side in European football nowadays and they played some good football in the UEFA Champions League earlier this season. However, they parted with star defender Inkoom to Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk in the January transfer window and that’s dealt them a massive blow because their defence is already vulnerable so I’m not so keen on them here. Since returning from the winter break, Basel have won 2-3 at newly-promoted Thun and 3-0 at home to St.Gallen, although make what you will of that scoreline with Basel goalkeeper Franco Costanzo being voted man of the match…

I quite fancied Spartak Moscow to win this one but not only are they rusty for this game but they’re missing a lot of important players. Strikers Ari and Welliton both miss this game, as does creative midfielder Ibson and defenders Pareja and Parshivlyuk so Spartak are far from at full-strength here. Most of Spartak’s games so far in Europe this season have gone over 2.5 goals due to some silly defending and impressive attacking so I expect more of the same today despite their absences in attack because I don’t rate Basel’s defence without Inkoom. Similarly, Spartak’s defensive absentees should give Streller and co. an easy time in attack so for me, the best plan of action here is over 2.5 goals at evens, especially as five out of Basel’s last six games in Europe this season have gone over 2.5 goals.

Team news – Basel miss Huggel, Kusunga, and Dragovic whereas Spartak Moscow miss Ari, Welliton, Pareja, Parshivlyuk, and Ibson.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.

Besiktas JK vs Dynamo Kiev – away win with draw no bet at 5/4.

Call this one a hunch, if you like, but I think Kiev have a good chance here. I’ve waxed lyrical often about Besiktas’ superiority in attack in the Super Lig now due to some fantastic signings (i.e. half of the Portuguese national team) but they’ve not gelled properly and as a result, Besiktas have looked very poor in their last few games. The problem is that Besiktas’ only strength is attacking as their defence is weak and with defensive absences tonight and their attack not firing on all cylinders, I don’t see them overturning a good Kiev side tonight. Dynamo haven’t played a competitive game for a while but they impressively brought back Yury Semin as boss in December to whip them into shape and that he’s done, even recalling Brazilian starlet Guilherme as competition for Milevskiy and Shevchenko in attack. This Kiev side plays very well under Semin and will be even better if they manage to lure Olexandr Aliev back from Lokomotiv Moscow as the rumours suggest. Either way, however, the odds on a very well-organised Kiev side winning here with draw no bet cover look too generous to me.

Team news – Besiktas JK miss Ibrahim Uzulmez, Ersan, Cenk Gonen, and Nihat.

Verdict: Dynamo Kiev to win with draw no bet at 5/4.

Young Boys Bern vs Zenit St.Petersburg – away win at evens.

Over 2.5 goals at 9/10 appeals to me too here but my main call remains a Zenit win.

Why? Well, for me, Zenit are the best team in the tournament and I do think they’ll end up winning it. They lost Rosina to Cesena in the transfer window but they’ve got a superb team and an excellent manager, hence them winning every UEFA Europa League game thus far with great ease. The likes of Danny and Kerzhakov are too good for this competition and it really should show here despite Zenit not playing a competitive game for some time. My concern for the away win doesn’t come from Young Boys Bern, however – they’ve looked fairly impotent ever since Doumbia joined CSKA Moscow – but from the artificial turf, which has caused clubs problems here in the past. Young Boys Bern have at least played in the Super League lately so they have some match practice and they’ve got enough energy and experience to cause a potentially rusty Zenit side some problems here. However, I’d be lying if I said I thought that the hosts could match the visitors here as I rate Zenit as a class above Young Boys Bern. I wouldn’t touch it if the odds drop below evens but whilst they’re at evens or above, there’s value on a Zenit win in my eyes.

Verdict: Zenit St.Petersburg to win at evens.

Sevilla CF vs Porto – both sides to score at 4/5.

A lot of people are calling over 2.5 goals here and I can understand that because both sides are attacking sides and that should be logical. However, something is holding me back here that I can’t quite put my finger on but I’ll try to explain it.

Both sides are attacking sides – we all know that. However, both sides have defensive managers by nature, and it’s shown a little lately. Manzano – well, you saw what he did with Mallorca’s home form last season - they were untouchable due to an iron defence and now that Serbian defender Dragutinovic is back after a lengthy absence, we may actually see a composed Sevilla defence for a change. In attack, Sevilla have looked somewhat predictable, however – there’s not enough spark unless Navas provides it – so I think they may struggle here. Porto are coached by ex-player Villas Boas and although Porto dominate most of their games in the Liga Sagres, it’s generally a case of taking their chances and counter-attacking very efficiently – they don’t attack from start to finish usually, hence the Portuguese media dubbing Villas Boas as “the new Mourinho”. Porto finally have Hulk’s striker partner Falcao back from injury but I don’t see him participating much here as Porto will most likely go 4-5-1. Hulk’s been a bit off in recent games but his talent is undeniable, as well as his ability to score from anywhere on the park, so Sevilla need to be careful here.

Both sides have talented individuals and enough firepower to score a goal apiece but I’m just not 100% convinced that there’ll be more than a goal scored for each team. I don’t think either cares about this tournament greatly and if either of them do then it’s Porto more than Sevilla CF because their manager is more keen to prove himself whereas Manzano is much more keen to avoid the Andaluscians eating him alive by performing well in the Primera Liga. Given that both sides tend to counter-attack well and each defence has its vulnerabilities, particularly to pace, I think backing both sides to score has some value but I’m still very unsure over the over 2.5 goals so approach with caution!

Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.

BATE Borisov vs Paris Saint-Germain – both sides to score at 5/6.

The trip to Belarus to face BATE Borisov is rapidly emerging on more and more places “not to go” for European sides as the rich club goes from strength to strength in a mini Shakhtar Donetsk mimic. The likes of Renan and Rodionov are a nightmare to play against and various different sides in the UEFA Europa League this season can testify there. BATE are a little unpredictable on the 1×2 front, however, hence me avoiding the very generous odds on a home win with draw no bet cover, especially after a lengthy break. Nonetheless, this BATE Borisov side is very good and they’re more than capable of giving PSG a rough ride here. However, PSG this season have been all about goals, especially Nene and Hoarau, so I think they’ll score here to give themselves an easier game in the second leg. PSG’s defence isn’t the best, however, and BATE do tend to score in their home games, something that they’ve done for seven consecutive home games in the UEFA Europa League, including scoring against the likes of Dynamo Kiev, AZ Alkmaar, and SL Benfica, so don’t underestimate the hosts here.

For me, this should be one of the more interesting games of the day and I have a funny feeling that we’ll see a lot of goals here. However, both sides to score at 5/6 remains my call for this one as it really should come in with the above in mind.

Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.

LOSC Lille vs PSV Eindhoven – away win with draw no bet at 7/4.

A lot of people are lauding LOSC Lille and they deserve – they’ve been immense in Ligue 1 this season and have some fantastic attacking players like Gervinho and Hazard so they need to be taken seriously. However, I’m yet to be convinced by them on the European stage because their only real test came against Sporting Clube de Lisboa at home and they lost that game 1-2. Lille can score goals for fun when they wish to but defensively, they tend to leak goals at home and that has to be a concern against an experienced European side like PSV Eindhoven. The sale of  Rami has affected Lille’s defence and it may show today against a very good PSV side, especially with Ola Toivonen in the form of his life. PSV have been a bit hit-and-miss lately however, with some flattering and some unflattering results but what has remained constant is their ability to score goals and win games with few exceptions. For me, this PSV side (which is at full-strength, incidentally) is very good and it’s going to take more than some talented attacking players to convince me that Lille will do the job here. I think this should be a good game but the pitch at Lille can mar games between good sidess sometimes so I wouldn’t bank on it being a good game necessarily! However, for me, an experienced PSV Eindhoven side winning with draw no bet cover at 7/4 with the knowledge that they’ve won all three of their UEFA Europa League away games already this season really appeals to me tonight – I just don’t think Lille will outscore them without PSV helping them greatly, hence my call.

Verdict: PSV Eindhoven to win with draw no bet at 7/4.

Leon de Huanuco vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla – home win at 11/10.

I said pre-tournament that I thought Leon de Huanuco of Peru could be the surprise side in this season’s Copa Libertadores so they’ll undoubtedly go out in the group stage now I’ve said it!

However, I stand by it as they were incredibly impressive in the Primera Division last season, especially at home as the altitude is nearly 2000 ft and that’s a bloody hard away game for any side – even fellow Peruvian sides! Leon de Huanuco did lose some players during the window – striker Seara left for America de Cali, experienced defender Rivadeneyra departed for Juan Aurich, star striker Perea departed for Deportivo Quito, and attacking midfielder Rodas left for Deportivo Quito too, all of which were big losses. However, they’ve signed a lot of players as replacements and although I doubt we’ll see the same quality as they showed last season, I do think that they’ll turn up and play their hearts out tonight at high altitude in their first ever continental game so the hosts need to be taken seriously here, despite Peru’s lack of legitimate threats for the Copa Libertadores trophy.

The other side of the coin is that Atletico Junior Barranquilla don’t tend to travel well, like most Colombian sides. They’re good, especially when it comes to containing other sides, but they don’t score enough on the road, hence their atypical predicament. They lost Panamanian midfielder Torres to Atletico Nacional de Medellin during the transfer window but largely kept hold of their players as big clubs do, although they added to their squad by acquiring most of Independiente Medellin’s defence. Interestingly enough, Junior sold defender Cambindo to their opponents tonight so it’ll be interesting to see if he’s fielded or not here. In Junior’s fairly brief continental experience, they’ve lost four out of their five away games due to not adapting to away games well and I think that’ll be instrumental again tonight.

Put these two sides on a level playing field with no geographical advantages and I’d side with Atletico Junior Barranquilla here. However, altitude makes a massive difference in South American football and with the hosts so eager to impress as it’s their maiden voyage in this tournament, I think Leon de Huanuco will sneak a victory and the odds are decent enough to take a punt on at 11/10.

Verdict: Leon de Huanuco to win at 11/10.

Cerro Porteno vs Colo Colo – over 2.5 goals at evens.

Two old and experienced South American clubs locking horns in Asuncion spells two things; cards and goals.

I wouldn’t enter the 1×2 market here if you paid me to because Paraguayan football has stagnated over the past couple of years and because Colo Colo have been dreadful so far this season. However, one thing that both sides have brought to their respective games is goals either via missed players, poor defending, or incisive attacking. Both sides possess good attackers with arguably the most prominent of Cerro Porteno’s attackers being ex-Bayern Munich midfielder Dos Santos and the most prominent of Colo Colo’s attack generally being the duet of Miralles and Paredes. Due to neither side starting particularly well domestically, both managers are already under pressue, particularly Colo Colo’s after a bizarre 1-5 humiliation against Universidad de Concepcion so I expect to see a lot of fire here. However, with Colo Colo having parted with defender Riffo to Santiago Morning, midfielders Sanhueza and Melendez to Deportes Iquique, playmaker Torres to Atletico Nacional de Medellin, and striker Campora and compatriot Quiroga to Huracan, they’ve looked a little short in depth and weak in defence so I think they’ll concede here. However, Cerro Porteno have also looked vulnerable in defence and with no altitude advantage in Paraguayan football, I think we’ll see an open and interesting game here. Although cards are likely to dominate proceedings, I think odds of evens on over 2.5 goals here looks appealing tonight, especially with Colo Colo also missing defender Cereceda.

Cerro Porteno have doubts over Madrigal whereas Colo Colo miss Cereceda.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.

Accumulator fodder:

SL Benfica, Gremio.

Recommended bets:

Villarreal DNB and SL Benfica at 2/1.

Gremio and Leon de Huanuco at 2/1.

As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

UEFA Europa League:

Rubin Kazan vs Twente Enschede (7) under 2.5 goals
Metalist Kharkiv vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (5) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
SSC Napoli vs Villarreal (6) 0-1
Anderlecht vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Lech Poznan vs Sporting Braga (5) over 2.5 goals
Besiktas JK vs Dyanmo Kiev (6) 1-2, draw no bet
SL Benfica vs VfB Stuttgart (8) 2-0
BATE Borisov vs Paris Saint-Germain (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Rangers vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (5) 1-1
Sparta Prague vs Liverpool (5) under 2.5 goals
Basel vs Spartak Moscow (6) over 2.5 goals
Young Boys Bern vs Zenit St.Petersburg (7) over 2.5 goals
PAOK Salonika vs CSKA Moscow (6) under 2.5 goals
Sevilla CF vs Porto (5) both sides to score
LOSC Lille vs PSV Eindhoven (5) 0-1

Copa Libertadores:

Leon de Huanuco vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (5) 1-0
Gremio vs Oriente Petrolero (9) -1.5 handicap, over 2.5 goals
Cerro Porteno vs Colo Colo (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Liga de Quito (6) 1-0

Finnish Liiga Cup:

IFK Mariehamn vs TPS Turku (5) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet

Singaporean S-League:

Geylang United vs Etoile (6) 1-2

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Club Brugge vs Villarreal

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The first of two nights of UEFA Europa League football starts tonight so please bet with caution – this competition is very unreliable!

Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game between Belgian giants Club Brugge and Spanish heavyweights Villarreal. This game is somewhat redundant as Club Brugge are already out of this competition and Villarreal have already qualified for the next round but to guarantee top spot in the group, Villarreal must win this game so they at least have some motivation here.

Unlike their opponents today, Club Brugge simply have no motivation for this game. That’s why Adrie Koster hasn’t even called Hoefkens, Geraerts, and Stijnen into the squad for tonight’s game, which leaves Club Brugge without an experience centre-back, battling midfielder, and number one goalkeeper respectively. Considering that Club Brugge struggle to defend at the best of times, you have to doubt their credentials today. Indeed, I doubt the afore-mentioned will be the end of Koster’s tinkering for this game because although he obviously doesn’t want to see his side embarassed here, he has to be realistic and appreciate that Club Brugge aren’t at their best at the moment and also evaluate his options ahead of their massive clash with Anderlecht at weekend. Club Brugge have actually called up youngsters Coseans, Van Ackter, and Vermeulen to feature in this game, just to reinforce the above point. Club Brugge have meandered to wins at home to Westerlo (4-3!) and at Mechelen (0-1) in their last couple of games, which looks decent on paper but Brugge have been poor in those games. In terms of the UEFA Europa League, Club Brugge have already lost at home to Dinamo Zagreb and drawn with PAOK Salonika in games that actually mattered so it remains to be seen how they’ll do against a Villarreal side that they’ve already lost against this season, albeit at El Madrigal. Club Brugge can finally play the essential Vargas in midfield after he served his ban and he should be able to cause Villarreal problems tonight as he has for almost every opponent this season already. However, with no motivation, players missing, and a natural inability to defend, Club Brugge could definitely be in better condition to face a superior Villarreal side tonight.

Villarreal only miss centre-back Marchena for this game but do welcome back Capdevila from injury so they’re almost at full-strength for this game as it is. Villarreal don’t need to win this game but they’ll prefer to as to ensure that they win the group, hence their strongest squad available being taken out to Belgium. Villarreal will be looking to give their fans something to smile about after their recent good run was broken apart after a 1-0 loss at weekend against nine-man Getafe. Nilmar and Rossi have looked very strong in attack for Villarreal in recent times and with the sheer quality of Villarreal alone, you have to fancy them here tonight, especially with ageless Senna and creative Cazorla in midfield. I anticipate a thoroughly composed and professional Villarreal display here and if that happens, even with only gradual incision, they should still win this game fairly comfortably tonight.

Although the risk element is notable here given that neither side needs to win this game, I still think it’s worth taking Villarreal here. Both sides are geared up to play attacking football and I anticipate a decent game with that in mind. However, I simply cannot look past a Villarreal win as it means more to them, which has been demonstrated by the strength of the squad that they’ve brought. Therefore, my call is the away win at evens although I’d leave it if it hits 4/5.

Incidentally, if you’re reading this tip somewhere other than www.thefootytipster.com then please note that it has been stolen without our permission!

Team news – Club Brugge miss Hoefkens, Geraerts, and Stijnen. Villarreal miss Marchena.

Verdict: Villarreal to win at evens.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Wednesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Pachuca vs Al Wahda – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.

I’m anticipating a pretty droll game between these two sides today as the better of these two sides (Pachuca) showed little interest in the competition when it mattered by losing 1-0 to Congolese outfit TP Mazembe whereas Al Wahda are determined to make their mark as they’re representing the host nation but lack quality barring their infamous threesome of Magrao, Hugo, and Baiano.

Pachuca were a little lazy against TP Mazembe but I still think they were unfortunate to lose. Mazembe wanted it more so fair play to them – you can’t argue with that. However, Mazembe didn’t carve Pachuca apart defensively – the Mexicans were generally in control of most situations when Mazembe pushed on. Indeed, goalkeeper Calero could and should have kept the Mazembe goal out so I won’t read excessively into Pachuca’s last game. However, despite Pachuca’s excellent arsenal of attacking talent, they simply failed to register a goal against Mazembe last match. Arizala was guilty of missing a gluttony of chances whilst Pachuca struck the woodwork twice, once through an excellent shot from Argentinian playmaker Manso, who was the heartbeat of the team. On another day, Pachuca would have won the game but their lack of interest in the game was apparent so I expect more of the same today.

Al Wahda will work harder than Pachuca here, in my opinion. They’re the only club in the competition from the United Arab Emirates and they want to give their loyal fans something better to remember rather than a somewhat embarassing 4-1 drubbing at the hands of South Korean side Seongnam Ilhwa. Al Wahda lack a lot of creativity without Hugo in midfield but as he’s there, they should still be able to fashion at least a few chances. Unfortunately for Al Wahda, Pachuca are used to dealing with the likes of Hugo so I don’t believe we’ll see a great deal in the way of attacking football from Al Wahda today, and not through choice either! Nonetheless, Baiano remains one of the best strikers currently in this competition and you can see it from his off-the-ball movement, finesse, touch, and aerial prowess so he’ll be a constant threat today. Indeed, if I was to bet on a goalscorer in this game, then he’d definitely be the one I would back. It’s up to Al Wahda to provide the necessary service for him today, however, and I just don’t think that will happen with Pachuca unlikely to break forward much due to a lack of motivation.

Therefore, I’m looking at a pretty boring game here with few goals. Ideally, both sides would do what they do best and attack and we’d see plenty of goals. Indeed, if Pachuca show up then this game has over 2.5 goals all over it but my thought pattern is that they’re unlikely to do so as they didn’t care when they had a chance to win the competition; why care now in a fifth-place play-off? I expect Pachuca to have the lion’s share of the possession and with the side wanting the win the most not being in possession of the ball the most, you can to envision few goals occurring here so I think under 2.5 goals at 11/10 looks appealing for this game.

Incidentally, if you’re reading this tip somewhere other than www.thefootytipster.com then please note that it has been stolen without our permission!

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.

Follow your bet as the match unfolds at www.FlashScores.co.uk!

Seongnam Ilhwa vs Internazionale – Lay Internazionale at half-time at 4/5.

Is it just me or are the bookies drastically overrating a highly unconvincing Internazionale side here? No European side has treated this competition with a great deal of respect with some half-arsed displays from the likes of Manchester United and Barcelona over the past few years and I don’t see that changing this year, especially with Inter’s Serie A title under threat following bad displays.

We also have to taken into account that Spanish bumbler Rafa Benitez is in charge now and Inter simply don’t work with his tactics. They lack ideas, they lack goals, they lack composure, and most of all – they lack belief. Mourinho brought them all  of those things and I think he deserves more respect than he gets for his job at Inter in the sense that he won them a massive tournament with no world-class strikers! A lot of people would class Eto’o as a world-class striker but I’m not one of them, I’m afraid – he’s lightning with his pace but his finishing can often let him down. Inter without Mourinho look quite old at the back, impotent in front of goal, and generally clueless tactically. They still have Cambiasso, which is fortuitous, as he’d carry this club to hell and back if he had to. However, they’re simply not that good a side anymore, to be blunt. I’ve mentioned it before and I’ll mention it again – Italian football is generally very predictable and easy to play against and that’s what I expect to happen today.

Seongnam Ilhwa aren’t world-beaters but they’re certainly not mugs either. They’ve travelled all over Asia to face clubs in the Asian Champions League, taking on all kinds of tactical variations and some rapidly-growing clubs so don’t underestimate them here. They showed in their 4-1 drubbing of Al Wahda that this competition means something to them so they’ll be determined to do well here. They stated pre-tournament that their aim was to reach this stage and face Internazionale; after that, what happens, happens. I’ve personally been very impressed with what I’ve seen of Seongnam thus far however – they’ve been interested, well-organised, incisive, and frankly dangerous. They’ve got pace in their side which Internazionale hate playing against and although striker Radoncic is likely to be in Inter’s pocket as his strength is in the air (where Inter’s defensive strength lies), controlling Colombian playmaker Molina is another matter entirely!

All in all, I’m expecting a much closer game than the bookies appear to expect here. Inter haven’t convinced on any fronts this season so why they would against an energetic and drive South Korean opponent today, I don’t know! For me, laying Internazionale at half-time at odds of 4/5 is a pure bargain as they’re slow starters at the best of times so that’s my main call here, although I can’t overlook the generous odds available on the selections of laying Internazionale overall at 9/5 or backing both teams to score at 4/5.

P.S. Just to back up my point about Inter being slow starters – did you know that they’ve only led at half-time in four out of fifteen Serie A games this season? A different competition, admittedly, but it speaks volumes about their tactics!

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Verdict: Lay Internazionale at half-time at 4/5.

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Dinamo Zagreb vs PAOK Salonika – home win at 4/5.

As if this game wasn’t heated enough already with Dinamo needing a win to secure  a place in the latter stages of this competition but their fans decided to contribute by attacking a PAOK bus of travelling fans recently so expect a pretty spicy game here, guys.

As I’ve said already – Dinamo have to win this game or they’re out; it’s that simple. I think they’d have took that opportunity if you offered it to them at the start of the campaign, however, so I don’t think they’ll be too disappointed by the current scenario. Let’s face it – we’re looking at a sellout crowd at Maksimir and if playmaker Sammir turns up then Dinamo will be on fire for this game. They’ve got a good side and as long as they don’t become stagnant ala their game against Varteks Varazdin lately then I fancy their chances here. Visitors PAOK need to not lose this game and although they boast a presentable away record in European football, I don’t think they’ll manage it here. They’ve got the ability to do so but rumoured internal problems at the club, the continued saga of the possible takeover, and an absentee list as long as your arm means that they should struggle here. Muslimovic and Ivic are big losses for PAOK, in my opinion, as is Vitolo and Malezas, which thus affects their attacking pace, creativity, and defensive stability here. I can accept one question mark but there’s various over PAOK here so I think they may find the intimidating Maksimir a difficult venue tonight.

This should be a close and fairly low-scoring affair but given the tension and pressure ahead of this encounter, I have to envision goals coming at somepoint. For me, Dinamo have barely put a foot wrong thus far and as long as they’re composed tonight whilst getting Sammir on the ball as much as possible then they should be able to win this game at decent odds of 4/5 – leave it if the odds drop though.

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Team news – Dinamo miss Biscan and have doubts over Cufre and Vrsaljko. PAOK miss Zuela, Muslimovic, Malezas, Ivic, Cristiano, Vitolo, and Cirillo whilst having doubts over Kresic, Savini, and Garcia.

Verdict: Dinamo Zagreb to win at 4/5.

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AZ Alkmaar vs BATE Borisov – AZ Alkmaar to win at 4/5.

This is another redundant game so do approach with caution here.

However, Netherlands outfit AZ Alkmaar had been playing very well lately prior to their acceptable 2-0 defeat at a strong Groningen side at weekend so I’m going to stick my neck out and say it’ll carry on tonight. AZ have no motivation to win it, however, as they’re already out of the UEFA Europa League, so that could be a stumbling block, as could the absence of creative Elm in the centre of the park. However, as I said earlier, AZ have been playing well lately and for them to score goals with a fairly average/emerging attack line, they’ve done very well indeed. Would AZ rest players here? I doubt it – they’re at home to NEC Nijmegen at weekend so there’s no real reason to rest players. They’ve got a good enough side to control this game and although I still have my age-old concerns about AZ putting the ball in the back of the net, you have to give them a shout on their home turf whilst in decent form.

What really swung it in favour of AZ Alkmaar instead of the under 2.5 goals goal here, however, was the fact that Belarusian heayvweights BATE Borisov haven’t played a competitive game for nearly two weeks now. You saw how bad they were against Dynamo Kiev in the last round after a short space of time without competitive football – I can only imagine how they are currently, especially in the knowledge that they’ve already qualified for the next round of the UEFA Europa League. The likes of Rodionov, Bressan, and Kontsevoy are always potent threats and should be taken seriously at all times. However, BATE have no need to win this game and haven’t played a competitive game for a while so I think they’re going to find themselves a tad rusty against an AZ side that have been playing consistently for weeks now.

BATE won this fixture 4-1 in Belarus; if nothing else, AZ Alkmaar must want revenge here. Under 2.5 goals appeals to me still as I can see AZ monopolising possession without scoring all of their chances. However, I’m going to stick with the home win at 4/5 as AZ have impressed me a lot in recent weeks and they should be able to overcome their rusty opponents tonight.

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Team news – AZ Alkmaar miss Rasmus Elm for this game.

Verdict: AZ Alkmaar to win at 4/5.

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Sparta Prague vs CSKA Moscow - over 2.5 goals at 9/10.

This game means nothing to either side from a competition perspective but it will mean something for one factor alone; Tomas Necid. Tomas Necid joined CSKA Moscow from Sparta Prague’s bitter rivals Slavia Prague a couple of years ago and needless to say, he won’t be particularly welcome here. Neither side has played a competitive game for a couple of weeks so expect rusty displays from both sides here. When a side like Sparta Prague is rusty, they concede goals for fun because they’re weak defensively at the best of times. Vagner Love might not be available for CSKA here but any level of attacking pace will trouble Repka and co. in this game. However, Sparta were attacking well too before the Gambrinus Liga winter break kicked in and there may be a little rivalry from a goalscoring perspective between emerging Ivorian strikers Wilfried and Doumbia for Sparta Prague and CSKA Moscow respectively here. CSKA miss Honda and Alexey Berzeutskiy here too, which will affect their ability to funcion as a unit. I expect a pretty laid-back but open game between these two sides, to be blunt, and that should yield over 2.5 goals. CSKA have won their previous two away games in the UEFA Europa League whilst going over 2.5 goals ahead of this game and all five of Sparta’s UEFA Europa League games have gone over 2.5 goals thus far due to good attacking and poor defending so I think 9/10 on this game going over 2.5 goals is a good price for this selection tonight.

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CSKA miss Vagner Love, Mark Gonzalez, Keisuke Honda, and Alexey Berzeutskiy

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.

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Sevilla CF vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund - over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

The obvious bet here is to take Dortmund to win at 6/4 but something just doesn’t sit well with me regarding that selection. Dortmund are playing very well and Sevilla aren’t so it makes sense but that was the same scenario when Dortmund lost at home to Sevilla earlier in the current campaign and although Sevilla were fortunate in that game, they still took the three points so I have my doubts over the away win tonight although I must confess that I’d love to see Dortmund win here as they deserve to progress more than Sevilla.

However, as things currently stand, it’s Sevilla who are progressing ahead of Dortmund so this is very much a pivotal game in the outcome of the group. Manzano’s Sevilla have been beyond ineffectual of late, however, bafflingly losing 1-3 at home to impotent local rivals Almeria. Sevilla’s defence is a mess without Dragutinovic and has been for weeks so I don’t expect to see anything different tonight. Sevilla know that and with that in mind, they have to attack and try to score goals or they’re going to go out as they can’t possibly keep a clean sheet here. Manzano knows that; that’s why Sevilla CF have called Jesus Navas and Luis Fabiano into the squad although neither is 100% fit. Sevilla have to attack here and to be honest, they really should score. They’re a good attacking side and tend to score even when they lose so I fancy them to bag here, especially against a Dortmund defence that could concede against anyone. However, Dortmund simply must win this game and they know it too. They’ve brought ample strikers for this game to bolster their offensive game if they need it so I expect a very open game here with plenty of chances and hopefully plenty of goals as a result.

I don’t want to get involved in the 1×2 market here as there could be a surprise on the horizon. However, over 2.5 goals at 4/5 looks inviting enough for two very attack-minded sides with weak defences.

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Team news – Sevilla CF miss Guarente, Kone, Dragutinovic, and Navarro.

Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

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SSC Napoli vs Steaua Bucharest – both sides to score at 11/10.

Napoli boss Walter Mazzari will be up in the stands tonight having been sent off against FC Utrecht in their last game so his side must do this without him.

The trouble is that his side could really do with his presence on the sidelines in this game tonight. They’re yet to win a UEFA Europa League game with four draws and one defeat leading them into this game. However, to progress to the next round, they must beat Steaua tonight to leapfrog them in the table so the pressure is on. Napoli’s fans really haven’t helped matters by publicly announcing their intention to basically kill/injure Steaua fans in response to the off-the-pitch happenings in Bucharest a couple of months ago. Napoli fans have already stabbed Liverpool fans this season so it’s not beyond them tonight and thus I expect there to be a feisty San Paolo atmosphere and thus a spicy game here.

Let’s face it – Italy and Romania have rarely had the best of relations in footballing sense and I’d be surprised to see anything other than that tonight. Napoli need to claim their first group win and Steaua need to avoid defeat here. Steaua boss Marius Lacatus promises offensive football but I feel he’s lying; he’s a defensive coach and has proven it numerous times. That said, I don’t think it’s going to take an offensive Steaua display to score against a Napoli defence which has practically given away goals in their European campaign thus far, three of which were conceded in Bucharest against Steaua in the bizarre 3-3 draw a couple of months ago. Steaua are good enough on the counter-attack to trouble Napoli’s somewhat shaky defence here but similarly, Napoli have looked strong in attack themselves and should be able to score here too. I’m not getting involved in the 1×2 market here as although Napoli should win this game, there have been a lot of games that they “should” have won in this competition and they’re still yet to win any so 4/11 is far too short for me to take them on here. Therefore, I’ll stick with both sides scoring at generous odds of 11/10, even though Napoli are missing pacey Argentinian striker Lavezzi for this game through injury.

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Team news – Napoli miss Lavezzi for this game.

Verdict: Both sides to score at 11/10.

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Newcastle Jets vs Gold Coast United - both teams to score at 4/5.

Is it time for Newcastle Jets’ good run of form to come to an end? I can’t make any promises as this should be a good game but their opponents are good enough to beat them today so approach this game with caution.

The Jets are unbeaten in six consecutive A-League games now, a run which was started by a 3-1 win over high-flying Adelaide United, which means the Jets have won four out of their last six games. Therefore, confidence at the club is high and thus they’re getting good results to their credit. The Jets are a very hard side to break down but their weak spot is that they generally don’t score goals. However, they’ve scored for six consecutive games now and even Francis Jeffers has got on the scoresheet so they must be doing something right in attack! Unsurprisingly, Michael Bridges is still not fit for this game due to injury and he joins fellow strikers Brockie and Rooney on the sidelines for this game. However, the Jets still have Haliti, Jesic, and Jeffers available and they’ve drafted Zhang Shuo into the squad as back-up so they’re not short in attack.

However, they are missing arising midfield talent Kantarovski through injury and number one goalkeeper Kennedy for this game so the visitors will find a slightly less immortal Jets side than normal here. Gold Coast United welcome back Porter, Minniecon, and Caravella for this game but regrettably wave goodbye to a hefty part of their midfield with both Culina and Robson injured for this encounter. It’s fortunate Caravella is back, really, or Gold Coast could have been really short in midfield today. Porter should replace missing Barisic in attack alongside Djite but missing Rees in defence could cause problems for the visitors here and grant their hosts a chance to boost their somewhat limited goal difference ratio. I don’t think it can be denied that Gold Coast are the better of these two sides, however, even without the core of their midfield so I fancy Gold Coast to cause problems here. They’ve played well lately too, beating Melbourne Heart and Wellington Phoenix convincingly without conceding a goal. They’ve scored for eight consecutive games, including on a trip to in-form Adelaide United, so they know how to find the net themselves. Much like their hosts, Gold Coast are not an easy side to score against but they’re a lot more potent than their hosts so the visitors must be taken seriously here.

The last meeting between these two sides with the Jets hosting it ended 3-2. I doubt we’ll see a similar scoreline here but I do think that the market is generously priced for both sides to score at 4/5 given the missing players and good form of both teams so that’s my call today.

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Team news - Newcastle Jets miss Wheelhouse, Kantarovski, Young, Bridges, Brockie, Rooney, and Kennedy for this game whereas Gold Coast United miss Culina, Broadfoot, Piorkowski, Osman, Rees, Barisic, and Robson for this game.

Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.

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Accumulator fodder:

Dynamo Kiev, Porto.

Recommended bets:

Dynamo Kiev, Villarreal, and Porto at 2/1.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!

FIFA World Club Cup:

Pachuca vs Al Wahda (5) under 2.5 goals
Seongnam Ilhwa vs Internazionale (3) 2-1, draw no bet

UEFA Europa League:

Dinamo Zagreb vs PAOK Salonika (6) 2-1
Club Brugge vs Villarreal (6) over 2.5 goals
AZ Alkmaar vs BATE Borisov (5) under 2.5 goals
Dynamo Kiev vs Sheriff Tiraspol (8) 2-0
Sparta Prague vs CSKA Moscow (5) over 2.5 goals
Lausanne Sports vs Palermo (3) 2-1, draw no bet
Karpaty Lviv vs Paris Saint-Germain (5) 1-1
Sevilla CF vs BV09 Borussia Dortmund (4) over 2.5 goals
SSC Napoli vs Steaua Bucharest (6) 2-1
Liverpool vs FC Utrecht (6) 1-0
Besiktas JK vs Rapid Vienna (4) over 2.5 goals
Porto vs CSKA Sofia (8) -1.5 handicap

Australian A-League:

Newcastle Jets vs Gold Coast United (6) 1-1
North Queensland Fury vs Sydney FC (5) 1-2

Chilean Primera Division:

Union Espanola vs Audax Italiano (6) over 2.5 goals

Colombian Primera A:

Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas Manizales (5) over 2.5 goals

Dutch Eredivisie:

Excelsior Rotterdam vs NAC Breda (5) 1-1

Enjoy your free betting tips!