Today’s featured game is the League Cup match between Arsenal and Liverpool. Just to remind you all (as if you didn’t already know!) that this is the shit trophy that nobody is particularly arsed about winning. What tends to happen is that all of the big four that can play a youthful side will then do so to give them experience. Obviously, the sides from the big four that can do this will do so, which basically excludes Chelsea, who haven’t had a good youth player since John Terry some ten years ago. This game at the Emirates Stadium shows a match-up that has been played many times over the past few seasons in various different competitions. However, the last time that Arsenal’s kids came up against Liverpool’s kids was at Anfield in 2007 where Arsenal’s kids trimphed 6-3, an extremely impressive scoreline considering that they were away from home. Arsene Wenger has long been reputed as one of the best talent scouts in the world (although bastards like me love to point out that he’s overlooked some gems he’s had on trial before now i.e. Zlatan Ibrahimovic) and I can only echo such sentiments although I’d argue his tactical finesse is a more substantial reason behind Arsenal’s persistent success in challenging for the title without having the resources to do it. What do I mean by that? I mean that some of Arsenal’s current “stars” wouldn’t get into any other side in the top seven clubs – it’s simply Arsene Wenger saying “You there! I want you to do this at this point and if you do not do that then you’ll be out of the squad” effectively because it works and he knows it. Take Diaby or Denilson, for example – neither of those two “stars” would get into any other big side in England because they’re just not good enough. Under Arsene Wenger’s machine, however, they look very good. Rafa Benitez is one of the late bloomers when it comes to producing youngsters as he’s tried rectifying Liverpool’s lack of academy produce in recent years but hasn’t successfully managed to achieve with it yet, although a few of his signings have caught my eye, namely Daniel Pacheco (former Barcelona striker), Andras Simon & Krisztian Nemeth (Hungarian strike duo from MTK Budapest), Mikel San Jose (defender poached from my beloved Athletic Club de Bilbao’s legendary Lezama academy) and Lauri Dalla Valle (Finnish playmaker signed from Jippo Joensuu – I’m entirely confident this his name is Finnish too – no trace of Italian heritage whatsoever(!)). However, these players are the future and not the present. Arsenal always have a wealth of talent emerging and this level tends to be the only level it’s shown it, either because the players move on when they become successful or because Arsenal’s first team don’t defend well enough for them to ever be successful in the Premier League again. Anyway, what I’m painstakingly trying to point out is not only that Arsenal have a better youth squad and that they’re at home but they’ve also battered Liverpool’s youngsters before in the League Cup. Effectively, the home win at 6/5 looks a real bargain for what could turn out to be a complete whitewash here.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Arsenal vs Liverpool – home win at 6/5 – see introduction for full details.
SV Ried vs Wiener Neustadt – home win with -1.75 handicap at 6/4. This bet is one of three that I like in Austria today. SV Ried, as I’ve maintained for some time now, are one of the best home sides in the Austrian Bundesliga. This has been proven time and time again, most notably last season where they remained undefeated at home all season and this season where they’ve won three games, drawn once, and lost once in the five games they’ve played. If you don’t think that looks particularly impresssive, consider that they’ve hosted three of the “big four” of Austrian football – Rapid Vienna, Salzburg and Sturm Graz already. SV Ried are unbeaten in five games, winning twice and drawing three times. They earned a highly respectable draw at Salzburg last match and will have taken confidence and momentum from this game. Today they host Wiener Neustadt, one of the worst away sides in the Bundesliga currently. The newly-promoted side have lost four from five away games thus far, drawing the other game. More worryingly for the visitors, they’ve conceded over two goals per game on the road this season and haven’t scored enough goals for them to even claim a “goal per away game” ratio. They’re winless in four games, losing twice and drawing twice. To put it bluntly; Wiener Neustadt are going to play SV Ried on a ground where much bigger and better sides have been humbled before. Therefore, the home win with -1.75 handicap at 6/4 looks a great bet today!
LASK Linz vs Salzburg – away win at 3/4. Although I’m a little dubious about this call, I still feel it’s got enough potential to make it a worthwhile bet. LASK Linz have won four games from twelve games this season with all of them occurring during their six home games. They’ve lost just once at home so Salzburg are bidding to become the second side to win here this season. LASK Linz, despite being 7th in the Bundesliga, are the top goalscorers in the division with approximately 2.5 goals scored per game. Their goalscoring record at home shows they score approximately 3.5 goals per game, which is astonishing considering the number of problems the side has with winning games. LASK Linz are without a win in their last four games, drawing once and losing three times along the way. LASK Linz are big conceders, as you’ve probably already gathered from the above statistics. Although Salzburg have drawn and lost their last two games respectively, they remain the better side from these two outfits and have only lost two from six away games so far this season. What finally tipped the scale in Salzburg’s favour for me was the “voodoo sign” they have over LASK Linz as they’ve won all six of their last six encounters against the Linz-based outfit, two of which were at LASK Linz without even conceding a goal. Although it is quite a risky call, as I mentioned previously, I still believe the away win at 3/4 shows significant value today.
Austria Karnten vs Rapid Vienna – away win with -1.75 handicap at 7/5. This bet is something of a no-brainer, really. Rapid Vienna are one of the best sides in the Bundesliga and will be keen to build on their 4-0 win against SV Mattersburg at weekend. They’ve won four of their last five games and scored an average of over two goals per game. Although their away form is somewhat inconclusive, they are playing against one of the worst sides in the Bundesliga – Austria Karnten. The hosts have won one game from twelve so far this season, losing three of their last five games and drawing the other two. They average conceding nearly three goals per game currently and look susceptible to being defeated by just about every opponent they encounter. Lastly, Rapid Vienna have beaten the -1.75 handicap in their last three encounters against the Bundesliga’s current bottom club. Therefore, taking the away win with -1.75 handicap at 7/5 could be a great bet here today!
Vitoria vs Corinthians – home win at 21/20. Neither of these two sides have anything left to play for this season and their recent lax attitude towards their performances have indicated that clearly with both sides claiming just one victory in five games. However, what has persuaded me to back a home win in this game is partially that Vitoria have proven to be a real force at home this season (ten wins from fifteen games, which is a record bettered only by Gremio) and that Corinthians have now lost two consecutive games, leaving them lacking in motivation and momentum entering this game. Corinthians have only managed two wins away from home all season and with the above information in mind, it looks unlikely they’ll claim a victory here. Corinthians have lost six away games this season but their biggest downfall has been their lack of goalscoring. On the road, Corinthians have managed to score just eleven goals in fifteen games, which is actually the lowest goalscoring record away from home in Serie A. Given that Vitoria average over two goals scored per game at home, you have to feel that the statistics indicating a home win here are most likely correct. With all the above in mind, 21/20 on the home win looks a good call tonight.
Gremio Barueri vs Flamengo – away win at 7/5. Although considered one of the stronger home sides in Serie A, I’m tipping Gremio Barueri to lose this one. They’ve won once in their last five games, drawing twice and losing twice. My main motivation for this game is their lack of motivation as they’ve got absolutely nothing left to play for. A few weeks back Flamengo were forced to field a drastically under-strength squad for some games due to injuries etc. Their season looked over at that point. However, since then they’ve gone on a rampage and have now won four of their last five games, including a highly impressive win at league leaders Palmeiras. Flamengo now find themselves just four points behind the league leaders with seven games remaining so this game is of great importance to the visitors. Although they’re not massively convincing away from home – like most Brazilian sides, really – I still think they’ve got the ability, momentum and motivation to win this game. I expect a close game with plenty of goals because Gremio Barueri are amongst the highest goalscorers in the league that won’t simply lie down for this game and they’re hosting a Flamengo side that very much need the points. Therefore, the away win at 7/5 could turn out to be a good bet tonight.
Helsingborgs vs Djurgardens – lay Helsingborgs at evens. This is a very risky call considering that Djurgardens are one of the worst away sides in the Allsvenskan. However, desperate times call for desperate measures and Djurgardens have been getting slightly better of late with just one defeat in three games, even winning a game along the way! The visitors absolutely need something from this game to maintain their beliefs that they can still be playing Allsvenskan football next season, albeit via a play-off against a Superettan side. Naturally, the above isn’t all I required to place this bet – I also required Helsingborgs be playing very badly, which they are. They’ve won just two games in their past eleven Allsvenskan games, leaving them looking short on goals and high on goals conceded. As I said earlier, this is a risky call but the above information makes evens on laying Helsingborgs today a potentially worthwhile call.
St.Gallen vs Grasshoppers Zurich – away win at 8/5. Grasshoppers Zurich have defied belief somewhat of late. Also virtually crucified with financial issues, a demoralised side and by having no real motivation to get themselves out of their mess, the squad have still managed to really come alive lately. They’ve unbeaten in four games now, winning three times and drawing once. They’ve even managed to overcome Young Boys Bern lately, who are the best side in the Super League, in my opinion. I don’t know quite how to explain it but I guess when you’ve got nothing to play for, you eventually reach a stage where you have nothing to lose so you all play free-flowing football with no worries and this can be the result. Grasshoppers Zurich have very strong momentum at the moment and although their away form is less than convincing currently, you have to favour them to win this game. Statistics show that St.Gallen are hard to beat at home, which normally means I’d leave this game alone in terms of betting. However, St.Gallen have now lost four consecutive games and the newly-promoted side are really struggling to come to terms with the Super League at the moment. There’s a big difference in momentum tonight, to be blunt, and the away win seems to bear good value as a result of that momentum at 8/5.
FC Zurich vs Basel - away win at 13/8. This is hard call for me to make as I believe FC Zurich are the better of these two sides nowadays. However, this game is one I can see being the result of European commitments but for varying reasons. FC Zurich have been forced to consider and even prioritise the UEFA Champions League, something they’re appearing in for the first time this year. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that since their group stage games started, FC Zurich have lost three Super League games and won just once. Before the victory at St.Gallen last match, FC Zurich had in fact lost three consecutive games, which isn’t nearly good enough for such a good side. Visitors Basel, however, have provided a spark for their otherwise stagnant season by overcome AS Roma of Italy in the UEFA Europa League. Since then, Basel have gone from strength to strength, even showing signs of recreating their former glory as they’ve won four consecutive league games, won at CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League without even conceding and having put up an extremely valiant fight at Fulham in England, also in the UEFA Europa League. Basel are playing better now than they have all season – their momentum is strong and they’re beginning to believe in the own ability again. FC Zurich are still looking very shaky, in my opinion, and will do well to win this game, particularly as they’ve actually managed to lose this fixture for three seasons running now. Although I expect this to be a close game, the away win at 11/8 does look inviting when you consider the above information.
As ever, any questions/explanations required, feel free to email me at thefootytipster@gmail.com. For the complete picks listing, see below!
Asian Champions League:
Nagoya Grampus vs Al Ittihad (8) 2-1
Umm Salal vs Pohang Steelers (5) 1-0
Baltic League:
Trans Narva vs Suduva Marijampole (6) 1-2
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Nomme Kalju (8) 2-0
Skonto Riga vs Sillamae Kalev (8) 3-1
Argentinian Primera Division:
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Estudiantes De La Plata (6) 1-2
Gimnasia De La Plata vs Banfield (8) 1-1
San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Arsenal de Sarandi (8) 2-0
Huracan vs Rosario Central (5) 0-0
Independiente vs Colon de Santa Fe (5) 2-1, draw no bet
Austrian Bundesliga:
SV Ried vs Wiener Neustadt (9) -1.75 handicap
LASK Linz vs Salzburg (7) over 2.5 goals
SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (8) 1-3
SV Mattersburg vs Sturm Graz (6) 2-3
Austria Karnten vs Rapid Vienna (8) -1.75 handicap, over 3.5 goals
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
FC Smorgon vs BATE Borisov (9) 1-3
Brazilian Serie A:
Botafogo vs Nautico (7) 2-1
Atletico Paranaense vs Santos (6) 1-1
Gremio vs Avai (7) 1-0
Cruzeiro vs Santo Andre (9) 3-1
Vitoria vs Corinthians (7) 2-1
Gremio Barueri vs Flamengo (6) 0-1
Sao Paulo vs Internacional (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
English League Cup:
Manchester City vs Scunthorpe United (8) 2-1
Chelsea vs Bolton Wanderers (8) 2-0
Arsenal vs Liverpool (9) 3-1
Italian Serie A:
Bologna vs Siena (6) 1-0
Catania vs Chievo Verona (7) 1-1
Genoa vs Fiorentina (5) 2-1
Juventus vs Sampdoria (8) 2-0
Lazio vs Cagliari (6) 2-1
Livorno vs Atalanta Bergamo (6) 1-1
SSC Napoli vs AC Milan (5) 1-1
Parma vs Bari (6) 0-0
Udinese vs AS Roma (7) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Geylang United vs Young Lions (8) 2-0
Super Reds vs Home United (7) 2-1
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
DAC Dunajska Streda vs Slovan Bratislava (5) 1-1
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Koper vs Maribor (6) 1-1
Drava vs Gorica (6) 0-0
Interblock Ljubljana vs Nafta Lendava (4) 2-1
Domzale vs Olimpija Ljubljana (6) 2-1
Celje vs Rudar Velenje (5) 1-0
Swedish Allsvenskan:
AIK Solna vs Orebro (9) under 2.5 goals
Orgryte vs Elfsborg Boras (6) 1-2
BK Hacken vs Gefle (7) 2-0
Helsingborgs vs Djurgardens (4) 1-1
Trelleborgs vs Hammarby (5) 1-1
Swiss Super League:
St.Gallen vs Grasshoppers Zurich (7) 1-2
Aarau vs Sion (7) 0-1
FC Zurich vs Basel (6) 1-2
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerro (7) 2-1
Fenix vs Cerrito (5) 1-1
River Plate Montevideo vs Liverpool Montevideo (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Central Espanol (9) 3-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!