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SCR Altach vs Wacker Innsbruck

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Today’s featured game is the Liga 1 game in Austria between SCR Altach and Wacker Innsbruck. Both sides are performing well as we draw near to the end of the campaign and both are in with a very realistic chance of obtaining promotion so we should see a good game between two sides that need three points.

Hosts SCR Altach impressed me with their activities in the transfer window and have looked the business ever since then. They’re unbeaten since returning from the winter break and have won four times along the way. They’ve conceded just twice whilst amassing ten goals so they’re averaging scoring two goals per game, which is generally enough to see a side win the vast majority of their games. SCR Altach have struggled a little on the road with goals but their home form has been undeniably good with nine goals scored over three home games with all ending in wins for SCR Altach. As a result, SCR Altach have now won eight out of twelve home games this season and are looking good ahead of today’s massive match as a result.

Visitors Wacker Innsbruck have already won six out of eleven away games this season whilst averaging scoring two goals per game, which is the highest average in the division. With that in mind, it’s fair to say that SCR Altach will have a tough game on their hands tonight. Wacker Innsbruck surprisingly lost their first Liga 1 game back from the winter break at home to Lustenau but have won their three games since then. However, their wins have been unconvincing performance-wise irrespective of the outcome, something that was particularly evident by their narrow, late victory at home to Dorbirn last match. The only decent side Wacker have met during their Liga 1 campaign following the winter break have been an under-achieving Lustenau and they were horribly short in that game so I’m still not fully convinced by them yet.

As I mentioned previously, this should be a very tight game between two of the best sides in the division. However, SCR Altach have been excellent since returning from the winter break, particularly at home, whereas their opponents have been less convincing. This won’t be a walk in the park for the hosts but I feel that odds of 13/10 on the home win have to be worth a shot for an SCR Altach side that I do feel is just better than Wacker Innsbruck as they demonstrated at the start of this season by winning this exact fixture 4-1…

Verdict: SCR Altach to win at 13/10.

Tuesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

CSKA Moscow vs Internazionale - under 1.5 goals at 13/5, Honda to score anytime at 4/1.

This bet speaks for itself for anyone who watched the first leg and anyone that knows anything about either side. Both sides are very similar in the sense that they like to play with men behind the ball which is why the first leg ended 1-0 with Inter persistently struggling to break through the CSKA ranks. However, they got their required goal and will look to ride this game out in typical Italian style, stealing a goal if possible. The onus is on CSKA to do damage here but I genuinely don’t feel that they’re capable of it. Over the past couple of years, they’re sold/loaned out too many players which leaves CSKA looking decidedly ordinary nowadays. CSKA’s biggest flaw is goalscoring, something they simply cannot do against good sides. Young Tomas Necid in attack is good but too inexperienced and too heavily relied upon. Little Brazilian Guilherme is a fantastic player but again is inexperienced and lacking in match practice. Who else to CSKA have? Nobody. I’ve seen laughable reports on Sky Sports referring to winger Milos Krasic as a “striker”, which is bullshit – ignore them! In fact, calling him a “winger” is perhaps a tad unfair as his natural role was always playmaker until CSKA converted him to a winger. CSKA have a good defence and a good midfield but don’t threaten in front of goal! Let’s assess their form of late and see if you’re convinced:

24/02 – CSKA Moscow 1 Sevilla CF 1 – Sevilla CF take the lead and should have won but a wonder 40-yard striker from Mark Gonzalez leaves the scores level.

07/03 – CSKA Moscow 0 Rubin Kazan 1 – CSKA are again ineffectual against a solid defence.

12/03 – CSKA Moscow 1 Amkar Perm 0 – A last-minute deflected goal gives CSKA a narrow win over a well-organised but generally average Amkar Perm.

16/03 – Sevilla CF 1 CSKA Moscow 2 – Sevilla CF had been under-performing (and still are) and gave away the first goal due to hideous defending and the second goal due to horrendous goalkeeping where Palop fumbled a free-kick aimed straight at him into the roof of his goal.

21/03 – CSKA Moscow 0 Dinamo Moscow 0 – CSKA again draw blanks against a solid defence.

26/03 – Anzhi Makhachkala 1 CSKA Moscow 2 – Newly-promoted Anzhi were found wanting defensively with CSKA securing a narrow win.

31/03 – Internazionale 1 CSKA Moscow 0 – Inter outclass CSKA for the whole game but fail to turn their possession into good chances more often than not thus the low-scoring result.

Are we seeing a pattern here? CSKA Moscow are either very lucky or don’t score against solid defences and that’s one thing that Inter, like most Italian sides, have. Mourinho will not care about winning this game, only progressing, and he’s seen how easily his side can contain CSKA already. The pitch at Luzhniki is artificial so may cause a slight issue – the ball bounces way too high on this turf, for example – but CSKA as a unit shouldn’t pose a problem and I honestly don’t envision them scoring today. I think Inter could sneak a goal but ultimately a 0-0 looks favourable here and under 1.5 goals looks very likely indeed for two defensively-minded sides in difficult conditions.

Verdict: Under 1.5 goals at 13/5.

Barcelona vs Arsenal – under 2.5 goals at 6/4.

Now this bet may cause a stir! Two free-flowing attacking sides locking horns at Nou Camp, the home of beautiful football, with a place in the UEFA Champions League Semi-Finals at stake going under 2.5 goals? You’re a nutcase!

However, hear me out here. The first leg in England saw Barcelona dominate Arsenal for sixty minutes before Arsenal’s late resurgance coupled with incompetence from the referee gave Arsenal an unjust lifeline. However, Barcelona, for all their possession, didn’t threaten as much in front of goal as they should be. Almunia had a good game, fair enough, but Barcelona’s two goals came from the atypical long ball, something that is virtually an offensive term in Spanish football. Arsenal can’t defend, we know that, but Barcelona’s lack of clinical finishing surprised me, all things considered. It may have slipped by unnoticed en mass but Barcelona haven’t been as potent this season as they were last season so do bear that in mind.

Both sides had tough games against battling sides at weekend. Barcelona overcame Athletic Club de Bilbao 4-1 although the scoreline did flatter tham and Arsenal needed a late goal to see of a steely Wolves side. Both sides will be at least partially tired from such exhausting games and that could show tonight. There’s a lot of players not playing in this game for both sides – Gallas, Song, Arshavin, Van Perie, Fabregas, Puyol, Pique, Ibrahimovic etc. etc. and I just feel that there will be a strong anti-climax for this over-hyped game between two stretched and tired sides. Arsenal were lucky to score two against Barcelona in the first leg with Valdes allowing the first in and the second being a penalty that should never have been and Barcelona wasted a lot of chances too so I expect a low-scoring game here tonight as Barcelona go through if they don’t lose (excluding the high-scoring draws) and Arsenal need to win but are finding goals hard to come by.

Although this could easily end 6-4 tonight, I simply don’t see it happening. I think there’ll be a massive anti-climax and both sides will fail to break through each other. Both sides are fielding a lone striker not good enough for that role for different reasons, which immediately must be of some concern to both sides, and both sides are missing a lot of players.  I can see a “scrappy” game (or as “scrappy” as a game between these two sides can actually be) and a low scoreline so the odds on under 2.5 goals at 6/4 look rather generous despite both sides’ obvious talents.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/4.

Universitario Lima vs Blooming Santa Cruz – Universitario Lima to win with -1.75 handicap at 3/4.

This one speaks for itself, really. Universitario were beyond unfortunate to not beat the handicap in Bolivia for the first meeting of these two sides but I don’t expect a repeat display here. First of all, I don’t expect Blooming to score – partially because they’re a poor side and partially because Universitario are strong defensively. Universitaro haven’t conceded in their two home games in the Copa Libertadores this season so they’re strong at home. Although not traditionally a big goalcoring side, Universitario are more than capable of scoring two tonight at home without conceding against a very much inferior Blooming Santa Cruz side, particularly with Blooming having already conceded five on the road in the Copa Libertadores this season without scoring once. A win tonight guarantees Universitario a place in the next round and I think they’ll easily break the -1.75 handicap although I’d be cautious about backing them on bigger handicaps as they don’t score many. The odds aren’t too great but they’re good value for what should almost certainly happen. This should also be a good in-play game if you happen to be around as Blooming should fight for at least a little while before eventually succumbing!

Verdict: Universitario Lima to beat the -1.75 handicap at 3/4.

Accumulator fodder:

Emelec Guayaquil, Huddersfield Town, Elfsborg Boras, Malmo, IFK Goteborg.

Recommended bets:

Huddersfield Town, Malmo, and SCR Altach at 6/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

UEFA Champions League:

CSKA Moscow vs Internazionale (7) 0-0
Barcelona vs Arsenal (6) under 2.5 goals

Copa Libertadores:

Deportivo Italia vs Colo Colo (6) 0-0
Universitario Lima vs Blooming Santa Cruz (9) -1.75 handicap

Baltic League:

Flora Tallinn vs Ekranas Panevezys (6) 1-2
Vetra Vilnius vs FK Ventspils (5) 1-1

Argentinian Primera Division:

Tigre vs Atletico Tucuman (6) 1-0
Arsenal de Sarandi vs Huracan (4) 1-1

Austrian Liga 1:

Lustenau vs Dornbirn (5)
First Vienna vs Austria Lustenau (6) over 2.5 goals
Hartberg vs St.Polten (5)
Salzburg II vs Austria Vienna II (6)
Gratkorn vs Admira Wacker (7)
SCR Altach vs Wacker Innsbruck (7) over 2.5 goals

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Emelec Guayaquil vs Independiente (8) 2-1

English League One:

Huddersfield Town vs Oldham Athletic (8) over 2.5 goals

Faroese Meistaradeildin:

IF Fuglafjordur vs EB/Streymur (6) 1-2

Irish Premier League:

Bohemians vs St.Patrick’s Athletic (6) 1-0

Romanian Liga:

Brasov vs Otelul Galati (5) 0-1

Swedish Allsvenskan:

Elfsborg Boras vs BK Hacken Goteborg (8) 2-1
Atvidabergs vs Kalmar (6) 0-1
Malmo vs Halmstad (8) 2-1
Brommapojkarna vs GAIS Goteborg (4) 0-1
IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens (8) 2-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!

Brest vs Vannes OC

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Today’s featured games is the Ligue 2 encounter between Brest and Vannes OC. The hosts have been very impressive in Ligue 2 this year and currently find themselves in fourth place in the table. They’ve won three of their last five games and are unbeaten on that particular run. The main reason for their success has been their consistent home form which has seen them yield five wins from seven games, drawing once and losing just once. Brest are looking twice the side that they were last year and look one of the harder sides to beat currently. Vannes OC, by contrast, are not having a good season. They’re currently thirteenth in the Ligue 2 table with one win and four defeats from their last five games, which isn’t good enough. Whereas their away record isn’t exactly the worst in the league, it’s still poor with three defeats, two draws, and one defeat from their six away games played this year. Vannes OC basically are not looking good enough to take anything from this game so I’m going to call a home win at bargain odds of 5/6 for a very much in-form and reliable Brest.

Friday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Brest vs Vannes OC – home win at 5/6 – see introduction for full details.

Universidad de Chile vs Fluminense – home win at 11/10. I don’t know what it is about Chilean sides playing Brazilian sides but they seem to have more success in stopping their Brazilian counterparts playing football much better than any other South American nation does. Perhaps it’s their dogged style of football that really gets to the Brazilians – I’m not sure. This point was illustrated in the first leg of this game as Universidad de Chile drew 2-2 in Brazil against Fluminense. Universidad de Chile are one of the more experienced continental sides in South America, I think it’s fair to say, and stand a great chance of progressing to the Copa Nissan Sudamericana here tonight against a Fluminense side more focal upon avoiding relegation from Serie A. The hosts have a good enough squad to win this game and the home advantage against a potentially distracted Fluminense makes the home win at 11/10 look a good call tonight.

Liga de Quito vs Velez Sarsfeld – home win at evens. Copa Libertadores reigning champions Liga de Quito tonight host Velez Sarsfeld in the Copa Nissan Sudamericana quarter-final game. An impressive 1-1 draw in Argentina in the first leg leaves the Ecuadorians with the edge as the Argentinians vist their lofty fortress in Quito. Many sides have travelled here and failed so it will take a mighty display from Velez Sarsfeld to avoid falling to a similar fate. What convinces me of this outcome is not only that this is a nightmarish away game for any side and that Velez Sarsfeld have to come here and attack to have a chance of success but also that Velez Sarsfeld’s performances of late have been inconsistent at best. For instance – they’ve beaten lowly Godoy Cruz de Mendoza and newly-promoted Atletico Tucuman but have also lost at home to Newell’s Old Boys. When travelling to a good home side like Liga de Quito, you really need to be at your best. Basically, I don’t think Velez Sarsfeld are currently in a position to get a result here so I think the home win at evens for the Ecuadorians looks a good bet tonight.

Sedan-Ardennes vs Metz – away win at 15/8. I can’t quite fathom why these odds are so long! Visitors Metz are not the best travellers in Ligue 2 – far from it. However, they remain one of the best sides in the division, regardless of that point. Aside from that, Metz have really entered their stride lately with four wins from their last five games. If this statistic isn’t impressive enough for you then consider that all of the sides they have beaten/drawn with in those five games either are a very good side or showed that they can be a very good side last season. Metz have lately won away to Chateauroux and drew away to high-flying Nantes whilst beating Guingamp, Laval, and Strasbourg at home. This list of sides is very impressive, in my humble opinion, and a weak Sedan-Ardennes shouldn’t really pose a great threat here tonight, despite having a decent home record. Sedan-Ardennes have lost three of their last five games, including two embarassing defeats to Nimes and Istres. Therefore, to be frank, the away win at 15/8 could turn out to be a real bargain tonight.

Arles vs Le Havre – away win at 13/8. Although currently unbeaten at home in Ligue 2 this year, hosts Arles will face one of their toughest tests yet as they host a very much in-form Le Havre. The visitors have won three of their last five games, losing just once. Their most recent victory was a monday night 4-0 demolition of promotion rivals Nantes, which will have inspired Le Havre greatly. Arles are doing well with keeping sides out but that record simply has to end soon enough because Arles are punching above their weight. Visitors Le Havre certainly have a classier side and look far more capable of winning this game than the hosts do. For me, the away win at 13/8 could prove to be a great bet tonight, particularly as Le Havre have already won three from seven away games this season, losing just once along the way.

Empoli vs Reggina – home win at evens. Anyone who reads this blog knows that I love my Serie B home wins and Empoli are amongst my favourite sides to back for it, too! Although atrocious away from home, Empoli become a very different side when playing on their own turf as five wins from six home games indicates. Some poor form lately has cast a few doubts in my mind over the reliability of Empoli but they’re hosting a Reggina side tonight that have lost four of their last five games and look destined to fail in this division despite having only joined Serie B from Serie A this year. Comparing Empoli’s superb home record with an average of nearly three goals scored per home game to Reggina’s away record of four defeats from six away games, conceding nearly two goals per away game, you have to feel that there’s potentially a great deal of value in the home win at evens!

Groningen vs Heracles Almelo – away win at 9/5. I never thought I’d see the day that I backed Heracles Almelo to win an away game but here we are! Visitors Heracles Almelo are playing some of the best football that they’ve ever played, in my humble opinion, and have well-earned their current Eredivisie placing of sixth. They’ve won four of their last five games but their most impressive feature is the fact that they’ve won four from six away games this year with only FC Twente Enschede having won more away games this year. Heracles Almelo’s strength isn’t goalscoring; it’s keeping sides out. They’ve conceded just one goal away from home in six games this year, which is pretty damn impressive! Although I formerly rated Groningen as the better of these two sides, statistics for this year show otherwise in a big way. The hosts have lost so many home games that only bottom-placed RKC Waalwijk have lost more home games than they have. Groningen have lost four of their six home games this season and scored a feeble two goals. Considering the lax attack of Groningen and the watertight defence of Heracles Almelo makes me think an away win is very likely here, particularly with the sharp contrast in momentum and ability at the moment, particularly as Groningen are without a win in their past four games and have lost their last two consecutively. For me, there’s potentially some serious value in the away win at 9/5.

Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce – home win at evens. Many people have dubbed Lechia Gdansk’s start to this Ekstraklasa campaign as “fortunate”; maybe they’re right. However, fortune has no place in what will surely be a home win against a weak, newly-promoted Korona Kielce as the visitors have now lost four games in a row. Korona Kielce looked to be playing ok but all of a sudden they’ve completely capitulated and the result is a sharp descent down the Ekstraklasa. The visitors have lost four from five away games in the Ekstraklasa this season and Lechia Gdansk are well-placed to take advantage of that fact. The hosts may have a somewhat impassive home record this year but they’re resilient, experienced in the Ekstraklasa dogfight and won their last game to give them momentum as they enter this game. With all of the above in mind, the home win at evens could be a real bargain today.

As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!

Copa Nissan Sudamericana:

Universidad de Chile vs Fluminense (7) under 2.5 goals
Liga de Quito vs Velez Sarsfeld (7) under 2.5 goals

Argentinian Primera Division:

Argentinos Juniors vs Rosario Central (5) 1-1
Independiente vs Gimnasia De La Plata (7) 2-0

Australian A-League:

Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar (7) 2-1

Austrian Liga 1:

Austria Vienna II vs Wacker Innsbruck (8)
SCR Altach vs Gratkorn (8)
Hartberg vs Admira Wacker (8)
Lustenau vs Salzburg II (6)
First Vienna vs Dornbirn (5) over 2.5 goals

Belgian Eerste Klasse:

Charleroi vs AA Gent (6) 1-2

Bulgarian A PFG:

Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Montana (7) 1-0

Danish 1st Division:

Viborg vs Skive (8)

English Championship:

Derby County vs Coventry City (4) draw no bet

English FA Cup:

Bristol Rovers vs Southampton (6) 1-1
Notts County vs Bradford City (8) 2-0
Huddersfield Town vs Dagenham & Redbridge (6) 2-1

French Ligue 2:

AC Ajaccio vs Dijon FCO (6)
Angers SCO vs Bastia (6)
Brest vs Vannes OC (8)
Clermont Foot vs Nimes (7)
Sedan-Ardennes vs Metz (6)
Strasbourg vs Istres (6)
Arles vs Le Havre (6)
Stade Malherbe de Caen vs Tours (8)
Chateauroux vs Laval (6)

German Bundesliga:

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt (8) 3-1

German Bundesliga 2:

Kaiserslautern vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (7)
St.Pauli vs Fortuna Dusseldorf (7)
Paderborn vs Koblenz (6)

Greek B Ethniki:

Ilioupoli vs Ethnikos Asteras (7)

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Ujpest vs Fehervar (6) 1-1

Italian Serie B:

Empoli vs Reggina (7)

Dutch Eredivisie:

Groningen vs Heracles Almelo (7) 0-1

Dutch Eerste Divisie:

Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Excelsior (7) over 2.5 goals
AGOVV Appeldoorn vs Volendam (6)
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht ’90 (6)
Eindhoven vs Veendam (7)
Fortuna Sittard vs RBC Roosendaal (7)
Go Ahead Eagles vs Haarlem (8)
Helmond Sport vs Top Oss (6)
MVV Maastricht vs Omniworld (8)
Stormvogels Telstar vs Zwolle (7)

Polish Ekstraklasa:

Odra Wodzislaw vs Zaglebie Lubin (5) 1-1
Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce (8) 1-0
Wisla Krakow vs Legia Warsaw (7) 2-1

Portuguese Liga Sagres:

Belenenses vs Pacos de Ferreira (6) under 2.5 goals

Romanian Liga:

Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Gloria Bistrita (7) 2-0
International vs Universitatea Craiova (8) 1-1

Singaporean S-League:

Sengkang Punggol vs Woodlands (5) 1-1

Turkish Super Lig:

Bursaspor vs Genclerbirligi (8) 2-0

Welsh Premier League:

Aberystwyth Town vs Bala Town (7) 2-1
Airbus vs Connah’s Quay Nomads (6) 1-0
Haverfordwest County vs Neath Athletic (6) 1-1
Prestatyn Town vs Newtown (7) 2-1
The New Saints vs Newi Cefn Druids (8) 2-0

Enjoy your free betting tips!