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Today’s featured game is the Bundesliga game between VfL Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich. Pre-season, this game would have been considered as a potential title-decider – or at least a very important game in the title run-in – but the fact is that both sides are very unlikely to win it with BV09 Borussia Dortmund playing so well so this game should be interesting as it’s a bit of a reality check for both sides.
Wolfsburg aren’t in a good place right now, however. They’ve sold striker Dzeko to Manchester City and although I don’t think he’ll be anything special in England, he was obviously rather integral for Wolfsburg in Germany so they’ll miss him. Grafite and Mandzukic are set to lead Wolfsburg’s formation but neither are impeccable and Wolfsburg will struggle with that in mind. The pressure is already on English manager Steve McClaren and his under-achieving side but with no sign of Dzeko’s replacement and no new faces at all during the transfer window thus far, I can’t see how Wolfsburg will get out of their current rut. They may have only lost twice in eight home games in the Bundesliga this season but they’ve only won three times due to some awful defending. Only their goalscoring has bailed them out but how will that continue today without Dzeko? I’d be surprised to see it so bluntly, I fear for Wolfsburg here.
At long last, Bayern Munich look a strong side again. Van Gaal did well before the winter break to pull Bayern back from the brink of mid-table annonymity but now he can call upon both Robben and Ribery to push Bayern’s long overdue title push this season as both are back from injury. New signing Luis Gustavo is available in midfield and his time at Hoffenheim means that he’s experienced and ready to play in this game (if required) without much fuss. Bayern’s biggest problem is that inexperienced Kraft is set to start in goal for them so Bayern are going to have to be alert defensively or they could fall behind to a lead that they’re not able to claw back. Nonetheless, Bayern have the necessary attacking personnel available to them today in order for them to outscore anyone in the Bundesliga so I expect a similar game today as we saw in back-to-back meetings between VfB Stuttgart and and Bayern Munich – plenty of goals for both teams but ultimately an away win!
4/6 isn’t the best set of odds available but I’ve taken into account Wolfsburg’s losses and Bayern’s gains here so the away win does interest me as I feel Bayern could be shorter here. Therefore, my call is the away win at 4/6.
Team news – Wolfsburg miss Johnson, Pekarik, and have doubts over Ziani, Hasebe, and Caiuby whereas Bayern miss Pranjic, Kroos, Badstuber, and Olic for this game.
Verdict: Bayern Munich to win at 4/6.
Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory – home win at 5/4.
This A-League game is a big derby, as there always is between Sydney and Melbourne in just about anything.
However, neither side has a lot to play for so I don’t expect anything monumental to occur in this game, hence me thinking that this game should at least follow the standard course of a game rather than adhering to usual derby policies i.e. random scoreline.
Sydney enter this game on the back of two straight convincing wins and confidence is high as a result. Their defending was never an issue, despite a sluggish start to their campaign – their issue was always scoring goals. However, the signature of Finnish striker Makela has really improved their potency and Sydney now look much nearer to the side that won the A-League last season so Sydney should be taken seriously here, especially with momentum on their side.
Momentum is massively against visitors Melbourne Victory, however. They’ve lost two consecutive games and they’ve thoroughly deserved to lose both games too, which has to be concerning. I personally didn’t think the reliance upon Kruse would have been so high for Melbourne Victory but since the departure of their leading goalscorer to the Asian Cup, the Victory have not only lost twice but shipped six goals along the way and generally looked very unconvincing. They miss important defender Muscat as well as star Kruse so things are going from bad to worse for the Victory and I cannot see a happy ending for them in this derby as a result.
Both sides are missing some fairly important players but the Victory are missing two absolutely quintessential players so I have to lean towards Sydney here. The hosts are playing well and now that they’ve got Makela in their ranks, I rate their team enough to back them. For me, 5/4 on the home win in this game is a good price today so that’s my recommendation.
Team news – Sydney FC miss Brosque, Bridge, and Foxe whereas Melbourne Victory miss Muscat, Kruse, Thompson, and Leijer.
Verdict: Sydney FC to win at 5/4.
Alki vs Apollon Limassol – home win with draw no bet at 6/4.
I cannot deny that Apollon Limassol are the bigger and better of these two sides but there are other aspects to take into consideration here.
Alki have signed Dario Fernandez, who is an Argentinian playmaker, ex-Beitar Jerusalem and Panionios. They’ve also signed ex-Santos holding midfielder Roberto Brum, ex-Nottingham Forest youngster Robbie Gibbons from Republic of Ireland, and Polish goalkeeper Radoslaw Cierzniak from Korona Kielce. Alki are clearly very intent on cementing their place in Division 1 and the above signings demonstrate that perfectly.
I don’t honestly know if they above will allow them to stay in the division or not; the lack of a home venue has hurt them a lot this season and will probably continue to do so. However, signing the above players may kick-start the players that they already have so I expect a positive response for Alki here, especially after their somewhat lacklustre 2-0 defeat at giants Omonia Nicosia in their last game.
The other side of the coin here is that Apollon Limassol have bigger fish to fry than little Alki here. They drew at bitter rivals APOEL Nicosia a few days ago in a cup game and the return leg is in a few days so I fully expect Apollon to rest players here as they’ll either be tired from the first game or will be rested for the second game. Apollon’s domestic campaign is in decent condition, all things considered, so they’ll focus on the cup here. They have financial issues and thus every competition counts for them so again, I expect Apollon to rest players here. Apollon have only won twice in eight away games this season due to some positively shambolic defending at times and more of the same is likely today with defenders Neva and Morris out, not to mention midfielders Dego and Kosowski. Neva and Morris are really hefty defensive losses for Apollon so I envision a tough game for the Limassol club here.
Lastly, Alki’s star striker Serjao is on loan from AEL Limassol, the bitter rivals of Apollon Limassol, so he’ll be keen to score here. With two important defenders missing for Apollon Limassol, he should have the perfect opportunity to score those goals too. For me, with the above in mind, the home win with draw no bet cover is a decent bet at 6/4 so that’s my call here.
Team news – Apollon Limassol miss Neva, Morris, Kosowski, and Dego.
Verdict: Doxa to win with draw no bet at 6/4.
Watford vs Derby County – home win at 4/5.
I can’t overlook this game whilst Watford are as generously priced as they are. They may struggle on the depth front but their starting eleven is good and they’re playing incredibly well so I really fancy them here. Watford have won six consecutive games in all competitions, the most recent of which was a 4-1 win against in-form Hartlepool United of League One in the FA Cup, a game which required their confidence and composure as they trailed in the game. However, Watford’s confidence has been very good lately and was again with Watford creating a lot of chances and scoring a lot of goals as a result. Watford have beaten some very good sides in recent times so they should be able to record yet another win today, especially with only Eustace missing for them.
Visitors Derby are in a bad way at the moment. They’re not a side that enjoys away games as it is but just one win in four games spells a bad run for Derby. They started their bad run off with a crushing 5-2 defeat at bitter rivals Nottingham Forest and have never really recovered since then. They won 1-2 at relegation-threatened Preston North End but have since drawn 0-0 at home to Millwall and lose 2-1 at Conference side Crawley Town in the FA Cup earlier this week so morale is getting lower and Derby are really starting to struggle, especially in front of goal.
Derby have already lost seven away games in the Championship this season and I can quite easily see this game being their eighth defeat if they continue playing as they have done lately. They’re looking rather ineffectual whereas Watford may have looked a tad careless in defence, they’ve still looked immense in attack so I have to favour the hosts here. Either way, 4/5 on a Watford win here looks a bargain as if this game comes down to who scores the most goals then Watford should win it comfortably as they’re one of the leading goalscoring sides in the whole of the division.
Team news – Watford miss Eustace for this game.
Verdict: Watford to win at 4/5.
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim – home win at evens.
I am taking a risk with this selection but bear with me!
Werder Bremen sold Portuguese striker Hugo Almeida to Besiktas JK in the transfer window and he was their leading goalscorer so you may think them to be crazy. I would disagree with that, however; I think that they can and should do better than the Portuguese striker and although their timing is questionable with so many players still injured, I think their decision will ultimately prove to be the correct one. Interestingly enough, they have signed Denni Avdic from Elfsborg Boras in the Allsvenskan, which could prove to be an inspired move if he has the same impact as fellow Scandinavian Abdellaoue had at Hannover 96 earlier this season, although amusingly neither of those players are actually Scandinavian, as their names will reveal! I’m curious to see how Avdic does though – he’s a good striker and I think he’s more than capable of filling the void left by Almeida.
Bremen themselves are still a dangerous side with the likes of Hunt and Pizarro in attack so I’ll give them their chances here. Missing playmaker Wesley will hurt them but a lengthy winter break but I’m hoping the addition of Avdic will do enough to compensate for Bremen in attack, if only via a short burst temporarily. Attacking options are always welcome in this side and I think Avdic could prove to be rather pivotal if he adjusts quickly.
Of course, the other side of the coin is the story at Hoffenheim. Hoffenheim lost star midfielder Luis Gustavo to Bayern Munich during the January transfer window and star striker Ba looks set to join Stoke City too so neither will be playing in this game. Indeed, the saga surrounding Luis Gustavo’s departure led to Rangnick leaving as manager so Hoffenheim have undergone massive changes since December. Rangnick pretty much built this Hoffenheim club so it’ll be interesting to see how they manage without him but either way, I don’t think that they’ll have enough to get a result against Bremen, not without two of their best players!
Indeed, Hoffenheim also miss important midfielder Sahilovic for this game too so that leaves the dependancy of goals largely on Ibisevic and Sigurdsson and under a new manager, I don’t see that working too well today. I think Hoffenheim are sitting ducks here, to be blunt, so I don’t fancy their chances of leaving Bremen with anything here.
Of course, Bremen aren’t in great shape themselves, hence the risk element. However, they’re more experienced than Hoffenheim in this situation and they’re in a much better position to deal with losses than Hoffenheim here. Bremen still have the same manager at least and that should count for a lot here. For me, taking the home win at evens is worth the risk as I don’t see how Hoffenheim can present their usual united front here.
Team news – Werder Bremen miss Naldo, Boenisch, and Wesley whereas Hoffenheim miss Obasi and Sahilovic.
Verdict: Werder Bremen to win at evens.
Prestatyn Town vs Port Talbot Town – home win at 11/10.
On-loan youngster Kai Edwards has returned to Wrexham after his loan spell at Prestatyn ended but that won’t affect their potency, only their clean sheets. Fortunately, it’s their goalscoring that interests me here rather than their defending as Port Talbot are not a side that concerns me with their limited attack. Prestatyn have been very strong at home this season, winning five out of nine home games, drawing the other four games. They average scoring nearly two goals per home game and have won three consecutive games leading them into this one, including a very impressive win against high-flying Bangor City. Prestatyn have bagged nine goals in those three games so they must be taken seriously here. I’ve mentioned before that Port Talbot only do well with leads but that’s going to be difficult to attain, given their impotent displays and inability to defend on the road. Indeed, Prestatyn score so many goals that they really should get the first goal and that generally results in a Port Talbot defeat. Port Talbot beat Newtown 3-0 in their last game to give them some momentum here but they’re still not a particularly good side. They’ve only lost three times on the road this season but the fact that they average conceding over two goals per away game has to concern Port Talbot here, especially given the hungry form of their hosts.
Therefore, I have to favour Prestatyn here. The head-to-head record isn’t on our side for this one but with odds of 11/10 on show, I’m content to go without it! Prestatyn are playing really well and Port Talbot’s record flatters them, in my view, so the home win at 11/10 looks a good bet today.
Verdict: Prestatyn Town to win at 11/10.
Accumulator fodder:
APOEL Nicosia, Omonia Nicosia, Leeds United, Rotherham United, Olympique Lyonnais, Stade Rennais, Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich, Olympiakos Piraeus, Internazionale, Sporting Clube de Lisboa, Rangers, Bangor City, The New Saints, Neath Athletic.
Recommended bets:
Sydney FC and Bayern Munich at 3/1.
SSC Napoli, Internazionale, and Olympiakos Piraeus at 2/1.
Watford, Paris Saint-Germain, and Rangers at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Cup:
Iran vs North Korea (6) under 2.5 goals
United Arab Emirates vs Iraq (4) 1-2, draw no bet
Australian A-League:
Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Perth Glory vs Melbourne Heart (6) 1-1
Cypriot Division 1:
APOP/Kinyras vs Omonia Nicosia (8) 0-2
APOEL Nicosia vs A.E.Paphos (8) 2-1
Alki vs Apollon Limassol (4) 2-1, draw no bet
English Premier League:
Chelsea vs Blackburn Rovers (5) 2-1
Manchester City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (6) 2-1
Stoke City vs Bolton Wanderers (5) 1-1
West Bromwich Albion vs Blackpool (5) over 2.5 goals
Wigan Athletic vs Fulham (6) 0-0
West Ham United vs Arsenal (6) 1-1
English Championship:
Swansea City vs Crystal Palace (6) over 2.5 goals
Watford vs Derby County (7)
Millwall vs Ipswich Town (5)
Preston North End vs Leicester City (6)
Burnley vs Queens Park Rangers (6)
Bristol City vs Middlesbrough (5)
Doncaster Rovers vs Reading (6)
Hull City vs Barnsley (6)
Coventry City vs Sheffield United (4)
Leeds United vs Scunthorpe United (8)
Norwich City vs Cardiff City (5)
Nottingham Forest vs Portsmouth (7)
English League One:
Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton Athletic (6) over 2.5 goals
Carlisle United vs Bristol Rovers (5)
Walsall vs Huddersfield Town (5) over 2.5 goals
Plymouth Argyle vs Oldham Athletic (6)
Southampton vs Notts County (8) over 2.5 goals
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Peterborough United (6) over 2.5 goals
Rochdale vs Leyton Orient (6)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Tranmere Rovers (7)
Hartlepool United vs Dagenham & Redbridge (7)
Swindon Town vs Yeovil Town (6)
English League Two:
Oxford United vs Bradford City (5)
Cheltenham Town vs Accrington Stanley (6)
Bury vs Aldershot Town (5)
Chesterfield vs Stevenage (7) under 2.5 goals
Morecambe vs Torquay United (6)
Rotherham United vs Southend United (8) over 2.5 goals
Barnet vs Shrewsbury Town (6)
Lincoln City vs Wycombe Wanderers (5)
Hereford United vs Stockport County (4)
Gillingham vs Northampton Town (6)
Crewe Alexandra vs Port Vale (6) both sides to score
French Ligue 1:
Auxerre vs AS Monaco (6) 1-0
Stade Brestois vs Stade Malherbe de Caen (6) 2-1
Racing Club Lens vs Saint-Etienne (7) 1-1
Olympique Lyonnais vs Lorient (8) 2-1
Montpellier HSC vs Valenciennes (5) 1-1
OGC Nice vs LOSC Lille (6) 0-1
Paris Saint-Germain vs Sochaux (8) 2-0
Stade Rennais vs Arles (8) under 2.5 goals
Toulouse vs AS Nancy-Lorraine (6) 1-0
French Ligue 2:
AC Ajaccio vs Le Havre (6)
Boulogne vs Angers SCO (5)
Chateauroux vs Nimes (5)
Dijon FCO vs Clermont Foot (7)
Grenoble Foot vs Sedan-Ardennes (7)
Metz vs Stade Lavallois (5)
Reims vs Le Mans (6)
Tours vs Istres (7)
Vannes OC vs Evian Thonon Gaillard (6)
German Bundesliga:
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich (8) over 2..5 goals
Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim (6) 2-1
Nurnberg vs Borussia Moenchengladbach (6) over 2.5 goals
St.Pauli vs SC Freiburg (5) 1-1
VfB Stuttgart vs Mainz 05 (6) 2-2
Schalke 04 vs Hamburger SV (6) 2-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Energie Cottbus (6)
1860 Munich vs VfL Bochum (4)
Greek Super League:
Atromitos vs Kerkyra Corfu (6) 2-1
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panserraikos (9) -1.5 handicap
Olympiakos Volos vs PAOK Salonika (5) 1-1
Italian Serie A:
SSC Napoli vs Fiorentina (7) 2-0
Internazionale vs Bologna (8) 2-0
Italian Serie B:
Vicenza vs Atalanta Bergamo (6)
Empoli vs Frosinone (6)
Ascoli vs Grosseto (5)
Sassuolo vs Livorno (6) over 2.5 goals
Piacenza vs Modena (5)
Novara vs Padova (5)
Cittadella vs Portosummaga (6)
Varese vs Torino (6)
Albinoleffe vs Triestina (6)
Mexican Primera Division:
Jaguares vs America (5) 1-0
San Luis vs Puebla (6) 1-1
Tigres UANL vs Necaxa (6) 2-1
Pachuca vs Toluca (4) 1-1
Atlas vs Queretaro (5) 0-0
Atlante vs Cruz Azul (6) 1-2
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Olhanense (6) 1-0
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Pacos de Ferreira (8) 2-0
Scottish Premier League:
Hibernian vs Celtic (6) 1-1
Aberdeen vs St.Mirren (7) 2-0
Dundee United vs Hearts (4) 1-1
Kilmarnock vs St. Johnstone (6) 1-0
Motherwell vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle (6) 0-0
Rangers vs Hamilton Academicals (9) -1.5 handicap
Spanish Primera Liga:
Villarreal vs Osasuna (6) 2-1
Getafe vs Real Sociedad (7) 2-0
Real Zaragoza vs Levante (6) 2-0
Sporting Gijon vs Hercules Alicante (4) 1-1
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Racing Santander (7) 1-0
Sevilla CF vs Espanyol (6) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Real Betis Balompie vs Alcorcon (6) both sides to score
Real Valladolid vs Huesca (4)
Albacete vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (4) draw no bet
Las Palmas vs Cordoba (5)
Salamanca vs Barcelona II (5)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Cartagena (6) over 2.5 goals
Celta de Vigo vs Deportivo Xerez (6)
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Llanelli (6) 1-2
Bala Town vs Carmarthen Town (5) 1-1
Haverfordwest County vs The New Saints (8) 0-2
Newtown vs Bangor City (8) -1.5 handicap
Prestatyn Town vs Port Talbot Town (7) over 2.5 goals
Neath Athletic vs Airbus UK (8) 2-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!