Today’s featured game is the World Cup Third Place Play-Off between Uruguay and Germany. Both sides have over-achieved in this tournament, in my opinion, so credit must go to their respective managers for their excellent achievements thus far.

Uruguay were outstanding against Netherlands in the Semi-Final and I think they can consider themselves unlucky to have lost, all things considered. They coped without their missing players well, took their chances well, and were generally quite unlucky. However, football is not for the weak – it’s for those who score goals and the fact is that Netherlands scored more goals, albeit one of them was offside. Uruguay should welcome back their absentees for this game, however, and they look a real force when they have the likes of Lugano, Suarez, Lodeiro, and Fucile back in their ranks. They’re well-organised and have a very robust midfield that make it hard for sides to penetrate through the middle, which is what Germany love to do via Muller and Ozil, so Uruguay have an advantage here that most other sides that Germany have faced don’t. The only side to beat Uruguay so far in this tournament had to score three goals so the Germans have got a lot of work to do to win this game, particularly as the only game Uruguay haven’t scored in during this tournament was their opening day goalless draw against France.

Germany didn’t do an awful lot wrong against Spain in their Semi-Final – they were simply outclassed, as I expected. They’re a bunch of workers with a talented midfield and an excellent coach but little else. They’ve done remarkably well in this tournament with the above in mind, as well as beating two heavyweights of world football along the way to the Semi-Final in convincing fashion, but they’re simply not good enough – yet. Nonetheless, Germany are very much a force to be reckoned with when it comes to beating them as only a resilient Serbia and powerful Spain side have discovered thus far. Barring their mishap against Serbia and their outclassing against Spain, Germany have also scored in every game so far in the tournament and are one of the leading goalscorers (somehow!) despite bearing an average attack. They’ve not done an awful lot wrong in this tournament and will be as determined as ever to write their names in the history books so I think they’ll be motivated today. After all, let’s face it – isn’t this one of the few sporting events where you actually remember who came third?

There won’t be too many individual battles today that intrigue me, really. However, as ever, I can only stand up, dance, shout, point, and wave at the fact that Low is fielding Boateng at left-back when he is a centre-back and he’s been destroyed whenever someone good has played against him. Suarez is back so I expect him to start and destroy Boateng down that side. When Jansen came on for Germany against Spain, didn’t you all notice how much more fluently the Germans attacked? It’s a miracle what playing a left-back at left-back can do for a side sometimes. I expect a feisty and crammed midfield between these two sides as they both go through the middle so I don’t see much joy there. Uruguay’s pace should trouble the German centre-backs if given chance and similarly Lahm’s constant attacking should give Fucile second-thoughts about attacking too.

So what’s going to happen here? I’m not really sure; it should be a tight one. I have to fancy Germany to win it because I think they’ve got more variety and experience in their play. However, I can’t touch them at 8/11 – that only encourages me to lay Germany over ninety minutes because a side like Uruguay should not be at 5/1 to win this game. As I said earlier, I expect a tight game here so the only stand-out bet for me is either side to win it by a single goal at 29/20 so that’s what I’m going for!

Verdict: Either side to win by a single goal at 29/20.

Other bets:

Lay Germany at evens.
Both teams to score at 13/20.

Saturday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order although I must apologise for the brief previews – I wrote full ones but the computer crashed and I don’t have time to write longer ones:

OPS Oulu vs Viikingit Helsinki - away win at 5/4.

OPS have struggled following promotion as they’ve not scored enough. They’ve played well of late and have momentum as a result, particularly as they’ve held much better sides than they are, which is a good reason to be cautious here. However, Viikingit are scoring goals for fun, they’re in great form, and they’re the better side so there should be value in the away win today.

Verdict: Viikingit Helsinki to win at 5/4.

Lillestrom vs Rosenborg BK – away win at 6/5.

Lillestrom have been terrific this season and are scoring lots at home. However, a derby defeat at home to Valerenga last match has crushed morale and they should suffer as a result today. They don’t defend well as it is but they’ve picked a bad side to lose form before playing. Rosenborg are one of the most clinical sides in the division and they rarely concede goals, which is why they’re champions so often. Hell, they have the champions mentality and it shows all the time – even last match when 40-year old stalwart Roar Strand came on for his first appearnance of the season and broke the deadlock with minutes remaining against a stubborn Sandefjord. I’d argue that Rosenborg haven’t played well for years – they just have the champions mentality and it works. Therefore, I’d also argue the case that backing Rosenborg at 6/5 against anyone in the Eliteserien is good value and I believe that today too.

Verdict: Rosenborg BK to win at 6/5.

Ljungskile vs Osters – home win at 3/4.

The odds really should be much shorter here. Ljungskile are too good for Osters. They’ve got one of the best defences in the division but now they’re scoring goals for fun, they suddenly look a very real threat. They’ve got good momentum and good ability whereas their opponents have struggled since promotion, losing five out of seven on the road already whilst leaking nearly two goals per away game on average. They’ve lost three consecutive games ahead of this encounter and they’re facing a superior side away from home. Why the hosts are as long as 3/4 is beyond me – this selection should be 1/2 at its longest, in my eyes, so take it whilst you can!

Verdict: Ljungskile to win at 3/4.

Accumulator fodder:

Sillamae Kalev, Levadia Tallinn, Liga de Quito, CSKA Moscow, Shakhtar Donetsk.

Recommended bets:

Rosenborg BK, CSKA Moscow, and Ljungskile at 4/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!

World Cup Third-Place Play-Off:

Uruguay vs Germany (6) 1-2

Ecuadorian Primera A:

Independiente vs Barcelona Guayaquil (6) 1-1
Liga de Quito vs Manta (8) 2-0
Deportivo Quito vs Deportivo Cuenca (7) 2-1
Macara Ambato vs El Nacional Quito (8) 1-1

Estonian Meistriliiga:

Levadia Tallinn vs Viljandi Tulevik (8) -1.75 handicap
Flora Paide vs Sillamae Kalev (8) 0-2
Kuressaare vs Lootus (5) 2-1

Finnish Veikkausliiga:

HJK Helsinki vs Tampere United (7) 2-1

Finnish Ykkonen:

Jippo Joensuu vs FC Espoo (5)
OPS Oulu vs Viikingit Helsinki (7)

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Aalesund vs Molde (5) 1-1
Sandefjord vs Start Kristiansand (5) 0-0
Lillestrom vs Rosenborg BK (6) 0-1
Stabaek vs Viking Stavanger (6) 2-1
Honefoss vs Tromso (5) 1-0
Haugesund vs Brann Bergen (6) 2-1

Russian Premier League:

CSKA Moscow vs Saturn Moscow Oblast (8) 2-0
Anzhi Makhachkala vs Lokomotiv Moscow (4) 1-2
Amkar Perm vs Tom Tomsk (6) 0-0

Swedish Superettan:

Brage vs Angelholm (5)
Ljungskile vs Osters (8)

Ukrainian Premier League:

Volyn vs Vorskla Poltava (5) 2-1
Tavriya Simferopol vs Metalist Kharkiv (5) 1-2
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Karpaty Lviv (6) under 2.5 goals
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (9) -1.75 handicap

Enjoy your free betting tips!