Today’s featured game is the second World Cup Semi-Final between twice-winners Germany and favourites Spain. Germany have surprised a few people this year with their excellent run of form and Spain have surprised people by not destroying each opponent and as a result we have a potentially very interesting encounter here.
I’m probably in the minority here who thinks that this Germany side is rather susceptible. Don’t get me wrong – they’ve had a superb campaign and to get so far with this limited bunch of players makes me think that Joachim Low deserves a medal, frankly, as this is one of the weakest German sides I’ve seen for some time. How one of the most average attacks in the World Cup of 2010 has scored eight goals in two games is absolutely beyond me, barring the shocking defending that greeted them. However, credit again must go to Joachim Low because his tactics have been spot on and the Germans have really taken their chances well. Who can criticise that? If you score goals, you win games – I’ve always said that and I’ll say it now. However, for those of you who think Germany are the better side here – they’re not. Do bear that in mind before being swept away by their momentum!
Spain haven’t peaked yet, which is both concerning and intriguing. They’re by far the best footballing side in the tournament on their day but they’ve not really had their day thus far. Part of this can be attributed to some wasteful finishing or perhaps even out-of-sorts Fernando Torres. However, the most notable reason that I can source for this is the sides that they’ve faced. You can’t pick who you face, of course, but Spain deserve some recognition for who they’ve faced in the form of Switzerland, Portugal, and Paraguay (I’ve not included their games against Chile and Honduras respectively because they’re not applicable to my point). You can either point out that Spain have only scored twice during those games and say that they’re not playing well or you can see how defensively each of those sides lined up against Spain and understand why it’s taken Spain such a long time to break through. Make no mistake, however – Spain dominated all three of those games and have won when they’ve needed to. We’ve all seen Barcelona do this at club level sometimes but we don’t criticise them, do we? Bear that in mind here because Spain’s style resembles Barcelona’s football far more than any other side. They keep the ball so well and whereas I don’t really agree with Del Bosque’s tactics of having his strikers drifting to the flanks more often than not, they still remain a threat with their tenacity and pace. The fact is that Spain have more quality in every area of the field than Germany so you have to wonder why the Spanish win isn’t a bit shorter than it currently is.
This is going to be a fantastic game, in my opinion, as both sides love to attack. However, for the first time in the competition, Germany are facing a side that has more quality than they do in every department and I think they’re going to feel it too. Germany’s defence has looked solid of late but I’d argue that they’ve not been tested properly by one-dimensional Argentina under an inept Maradona or against a woeful England. Spain will give them their most thorough examination yet and you might just see how vulnerable lumbering Per Mertesacker can be at the back if attacked correctly. I think it was Napolean who said that the best form of attack is to counter-attack and both of these sides love to do that so do expect plenty of goals today, particularly as Spain can’t defence and Germany are rather young and susceptible against pace in the middle of defence.
There’s interesting battles all over the field today but the game is going to be won by whichever side has the most effective playmaker. For me, that battle will always be won by Xavi and Iniesta because they’re untouchable together. Ozil has had a fantastic tournament and has probably already earned himself a move to Bayern Munich behind closed doors but I’ll be beyond surprised to see him outplay the two masterminds of Barcelona. That said, he’ll have his chances against a Segio Busquets holding midfielder that I don’t rate very highly yet. It’ll be interesting to see how Capdevilla copes with the adventurous Lahm and similarly it’ll defy belief if Low fields centre-back Boateng at left-back as Torres and Ramos will destroy him – watch out for that if he does start. Both sides have outstanding goalkeepers (although Casillas has had a shaky tournament) but ultimately Spain have better strikers by some distance so you have to feel they’ll take their chances better, even though recent form shows otherwise. Klose will be the main man for any German attacks (as ever!) as they’ll no doubt look to exploit the indecisiveness of the Pique/Puyol combination in the middle of defence and to be honest, he’s the only “German” striker in their current squad who can damage them there too. Schweinsteiger and Khedira have a massive job to restrain the Spanish playmakers and I’ve yet to see a side that can successfully do it so I have my doubts, although both players have had unquestionably good tournaments thus far and are worthy of the praise that they’ve received.
Ultimately, the key area for me today will be Germany’s left-back position. If Boateng plays there, I expect Spain to launch most of their attacks down their right flank and have an awful lot of joy. Boateng is not a left-back by any stretch of the imagination and even Maradona noticed that last match, hence Low’s decision to substitute Boateng after Argentina began to focus on his weakness at left-back and exploit it successfully. I don’t understand why Low plays him ahead of their best natural left-back (Jansen) even if Jansen isn’t that good a left-back!
Either way, my selection for today is Spain to win this game in ninety minutes. I cannot envision another outcome for this game against the over-achieving Germans. Spain are in their golden generation and have better quality players. At 17/10, Spain are a bargain to beat anyone and I expect them to do so today, although the option of laying Germany over ninety minutes at 1/2 looks an incredible bargain against anyone too!
Verdict: Spain to win at 17/10.
Other bets I like:
Spain to score more than 1.5 goals at 37/20.
Lay Germany at 1/2.
Both teams to score at 39/50.
Germany to receive more than 1.5 yellow cards in the second half at 5/4.
Either side to win by one goal at 5/4.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
Nothing else appeals to me today – sorry guys!
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
World Cup:
Germany vs Spain (6) 1-2
UEFA Champions League:
Rudar Pljevlja vs Tre Fiori (10) -1.75 handicap
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Armed Forces (7) over 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!