Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League Qualifier in Romania between Unirea Urziceni and Russians Zenit St.Petersburg. Both sides have become familiar names on the European circuit over the past few years with the Russians taking the lion’s share of the fame following their UEFA Cup success.

However, we’ll look at the hosts first of all. This Unirea side is not the same side that you witnessed in the Champions League a couple of seasons ago where they caused Rangers a great deal of embarrassment with an emphatic victory in Scotland. It’s not so much the difference in squad that has changed Unirea but a certain Dan Petrescu, who moved to Russia to take charge of Kuban Krasnodar. Unirea have never looked the same since he left and I personally don’t consider them as an acceptable challenger for the Romanian Liga this year – I just don’t see enough goal threat nor managerial know-how to make Unirea a threat again. Unirea struggled in their opening opening Liga game last week because hosts Pandurii are a resilient side and don’t concede because they park the bus. Do Unirea have a way of breaking through that type of resilience? No! Unirea have got far more problems at the moment than are being documented, in my opinion, so I cannot seriously consider them in any competition. I knew Unirea would struggle at Pandurii because of Unirea’s problems in attack and sure enough it ended 0-0. To make things worse for Unirea, they’re missing integral playmaker Apostol and key holding midfielder Gomes. Zenit love to attack with constant possession through the middle so these are hefty blows for the hosts. Unirea are also playing this game in Bucharest as their own ground is not suitable for use in European football. Whereas this isn’t a new thing for them, it still counts against them in my opinion and should be taken into consideration.

Visitors Zenit are finally beginning to look the force they were before their magical Kerzhakov/Arshavin attack was split up. In a way, the appointment of Luciano Spalletti was ingenius, although quite surprising. What better type of manager to take control of a wealthy side that manipulate the possession statistics than an Italian?! Spalletti has proved his worth with AS Roma many times and although he’s had bad times against Romanian opponents in the past, you still have to favour Zenit to do the job today. Not only have Zenit dominated games and won the majority of them this season but they’ve been absolutely banging goals in of late, which is a worrying thought for everyone because they can already defend very well indeed. Just imagine if these guys still had Skrtel and Arshavin – they’d be dominating Russia without any challenge, in my opinion – they’re that close to being the ultimate side out there. Zenit are missing Krizinac and Lazovic for the game, which are blows but not to the point where I’m going to ignore the game. Lazovic is a good striker but if Kerzhakov plays (which he will) and if the support from Danny is good (which it usually is!) then I have no qualms over the potency of Zenit’s attack. Krizinac is a bigger blow in a sense as he’s a very experienced centre-back but I’m going to ride that one and bank on Unirea’s lack of midfield to mean that their attack won’t get the necessary service and thus Zenit won’t be too troubled. Let’s also not forget that Zenit are mid-season whereas Unirea have just started their campaign.

Basically, I expect Zenit to manipulate the possession in this game because they’re the superior side here and they more than have the capability to do so. No central midfield for Unirea is a massive problem because Zenit will play through the compact middle of the park all day long and they tend to take a lot of joy from it too. Unirea will work hard and love to upset the odds but I just can’t see how they’ll manage it today. My sole concern for Zenit is that they’ll revert to an overly defensive stance and not push at Unirea when they’re clearly under-strength. If that happens, Zenit may not get the goal that I think they really should go for. Zenit will have a tough job to beat Arlauskis in the Unirea goal, who is arguably the best goalkeeper in the Romanian Liga currently. Nonetheless, Zenit have the ability to win this game and if they perform as I expect them to by controlling possesion then I expect them to win this game without conceding at generous odds of 31/20.

Verdict: Zenit St.Petersburg to win to nil at 31/20.

Tuesday’s Picks

My tips:

As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:

Omonia Nicosia vs Salzburg – home win at 11/10.

I really fancy Omonia for this game and I’m just hoping that last year’s Salzburg doesn’t turn up to burn me here! However, I’m starting to have a lot of faith in this wealthy Cypriot outfit and I’m starting to lose faith in a Salzburg side devoid of target man Janko so I do favour the hosts here. Omonia have already stated their intent by demolising Renova Dzepciste of the Republic of Macedonia 5-0 on aggregate in the previous qualifying round. Whereas I expected a comfortable home win for the Cypriots, I thought they’d have a much tougher away leg at an intimidating venue but the Cypriots showed their growing class and just why they are reputed to be the best team in Cyprus by winning with ease again. The intense humidity in Cyprus tonight will play largely into the hands of the hosts as their visitors just won’t be used to playing in this weather condition. Omonia’s squad is packed with experience from the likes of ex-Newcastle striker Lua-Lua, ex-Olympiakos Piraeus utility man Patsatzoglou, ex-Barcelona defenders Victor and Iago Bouzon, Cypriot international target man Konstantinou, and they even have the youthful input of ex-Arsenal youngster Efrem. Omonia have an awful lot going for them at the moment and I really fancy them to do well today as a result. Salzburg are a good side on their day but they’ve not convinced me at all so far this season. I think that they’re lucky the game with Wacker Innsbruck was rained off because they had a nightmarish game against the newcomers and I’m quite confident that they’d have struggled. Let’s not forget that the only game Salzburg have scored in this season was at home to Faroese outfit HB Torshavn with the Austrians failing to score in the return leg and at a mediocre SV Kapfenberg. Their attack is far too predictable and ineffectual without Marc Janko and I just don’t see how they’ll take anything from the game without a clear and concise Plan B which they just don’t have. For me, this game has “home win” written all over it although I must emphasise caution as Salzburg can be a really funny opponent in European football. Nonetheless, there does appear to be value on the home win tonight.

Verdict: Omonia Nicosia to win at 11/10.

The New Saints vs Anderlecht – both sides to score at 21/20.

I like the odds for this game a bit more than I should, I daresay. We all know that Anderlecht are better than TNS but TNS impressed me an awful lot by destroying Bohemians 4-0 in their last home game in this competition. I rate Bohemians as a marginally better side than TNS as it is but Bohemians’ strength is defending and yet the Welsh side blew them away with ease! TNS will be raring to go against Anderlecht tonight with that momentum behind them, particularly with the knowledge that wonderkid Lukaku misses the game for Anderlecht through injury and Anderlecht lack a natural finisher without him. Anderlecht sold key defender Van Damme in the transfer window and are suspect at the back as it is so there’s every chance that they’ll concede here. I’m actually slightly more concerned that Anderlecht won’t score rather than TNS but I think that the silky skills of Moroccan Boussoufa should be enough to generate a goal for the superior Belgian side. Welsh football is on the rise, however, so don’t underestimate TNS here, especially as Anderlecht aren’t as big as their name! I like the idea of both sides scoring here and the odds are good enough to take a punt on although you’re a braver man than I am if you back a winner here!

Verdict: Both sides to score at 21/20.

Sparta Prague vs Lech Poznan – lay Sparta Prague at 6/5.

There are so many bets that intrigue me for this game because I’m just not sure which way it’s going to go! In the end, I’ve decided to lay the hosts because they’re priced far too short for my liking and Lech aren’t that bad.

Polish football is marginally better than it used to be and Czech football is on the decline so the gap has lessened in recent times. Sparta definitely aren’t what they were and although their experience is an unquestionable advantage, especially at Letna, the fact is that they don’t score enough goals. They keep the ball well enough but scoring goals is a big problem for them, particularly with their defence looking a little shaky at the moment too. The additions of Zitka and Matejovsky are useful ones to bolster the Sparta ranks with ability and experience but they’re still lacking a really good striker and that’s what underpins their overall displays, in my opinion. To top that problem off, Sparta miss strikers Lacny and Bouma for this game, not to mention defender Kusnir and midfielders Kucka and Vacek. Sparta are missing a good portion of their backbone for this game and I have concerns about their ability to win it against a stubborn Lech side. Lech might not have the potency that they did last year now that Lewandowski has departed but they’re still solid at the back so should cause the Czech hosts some problems today. I don’t see the battle of the aged between Repka and Wichinarek being problematic for the hosts so I was considering backing Lech not to score at decent odds of 4/5 as I think Krivets will be contained quite well. However, I’ve decided to be bold and lay the hosts today as I do think they’re too short for this game considering the above and the odds are good enough to take a chance on. 

Verdict: Lay Sparta Prague at 6/5.

France U19 vs Croatia U19 – home win at 7/10.

I can’t write as much on this game as I’d like because it’s all just staring you in the face; France are the better side. Not only are they at home but they’ve looked frighteningly good so far in this tournament with goals being scored for fun and the only blemish on their record being a 1-1 draw against England courtesy of a last minute English equaliser. France have some terrific players coming through the ranks, as usual, and the quality of the likes of Gael Kakuta is there for all to see. I have a lot of respect for the talented Croatians but they really shouldn’t stand a chance here despite their solid defence. They’re good but I genuinely think they’ve gnoe as far as they can go now and the odds today are too long for a frankly largely superior France side so there should be value in a France win today.

Verdict: France U19 to win at 7/10.

Guadalajara vs Universidad de Chile – lay Guadalajara at evens.

This is a little bit of a fun bet for me but one I quite like because of one fundamental reason; motivation.

Guadalajara have done well in this competition because for the most part, it was played when they had nothing else to play for. However, the fact is that the Mexican sides do not rate this competition – they much prefer their domestic competition and the North American continental competition. Guadalajara now play this semi-final as their domestic campaign has started so if what they said before the Copa Libertadores last year is true then their focus will not be on this game at all. Star striker Javier Hernandez has left to join Manchester United so they’ll have to deal with his loss although they do still have some talented players in there. Nonetheless, Guadalajara were caught short at weekend by drawing a blank at home to Puebla so Hernandez’s departure has clearly had a sizable impact on the hosts and that may play an important role too.

Compare the above to Universidad de Chile, who are arguably the most tenacious side in South America in my humble opinion. These guys would walk through fire to win this tournament and they’ll do anything not to lose this game. They’re mid-season so they have the match fitness boost that Guadalajara lack currently. Universidad have been terrific on the road in the Copa Libertadores in recent times too, losing just twice in their last nine away games. They’re unbeaten in their last five away games, the last three of which were wins, which includes games against Flamengo, Alianza Lima, and Caracas – three very difficult games either for altitude reasons or the quality gap. Universidad were always successful because they were hard to beat. They still boast that asset but they’ve added the ability to score goals in continental competition, which makes them a very dangerous side indeed. Uruguayan striker Juan Oliveira is in the form of his life for the Chileans and midfield nutcase engine Manuel Iturra will be instrumental if Universidad are to do the job here today.

I have to give the visitors a chance today though. The hosts really shouldn’t be interested in this game whereas the visitors prize this competition immensely. I think the bookies have priced the game about right but I still think there’s value in laying the hosts in light of the above information.

Verdict: Lay Guadalajara at evens.

Shimizu S-Pulse vs Cerezo Osaka – lay Shimizu S-Pulse at evens.

I know that the J-League table shows Shimizu S-Pulse as a very good side but I still don’t buy it. I just don’t think they’re good enough and I feel they’ve finally run out of steam in their push for the title. They were somewhat easily contained at home by defensive Jubilo Iwata in a 0-0 draw after the mid-season break and drew 3-3 at Nagoya Grampus last match, falling behind three times in the game. A solid defensive side causes the hosts today problems when they don’t have momentum and momentum is something that they definitely don’t have currently. They’re a good side but they’re not a great side and heads are beginning to drop. Are they worth the odds that they’ve been quoted? Not in my world they’re not.

Cerezo Osaka are another side drastically over-achieving but their well-organised defensive unit of a team has done the job often in the J-League so they have to be respected. Ironically, the only side to have lost less away games than today’s visitors is their opponents Shimizu S-Pulse with Cerezo having lost just once in six away games despite only joining the J-League this season. Cerezo held a superior Albirex Niigata side to a 1-1 draw in Niigata in their first game back from the mid-season break and then promptly destroyed relegation-threatened Montedio Yamagata 3-0 at home last match so they’ve prolonged their massive run of momentum beyond the mid-season break and are very much the side to beat at the moment. Only giants and league leaders Kashima Antlers have conceded less goals than Cerezo Osaka in the J-League this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cerezo leave this game today with that record entact. They average conceding less than a goal per game on the road and they’re facing a side that doesn’t know how to break down resolute defences at the moment so you have to give the visitors a chance here.

Although Shimizu are a good side, I think they’re being priced on their league placing more than their actual level of ability and their form. For me, there’s value on laying the hosts today because Cerezo Osaka are a horrible side to try and beat at home or away and I think Shimizu are going to discover that fact the hard way today. Despite the risk factor, I think the odds are good enough to take a chance on today.

Verdict: Lay Shimizu S-Pulse at evens.

Accumulator fodder:

France U19, NSI Runavik, Kashima Antlers.

Recommended bets:

Spain U19 and France U19 at 2/1.

Omonia Nicosia and Zenit St.Petersburg at 3/1.

As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!

UEFA European Champions League Qualifiers:

Omonia Nicosia vs Salzburg (6) 2-1
Litex Lovech vs MSK Zilina (7) 1-0
Dynamo Kiev vs AA Gent (6) 2-1
Unirea Urziceni vs Zenit St.Petersburg (7) 0-1
Sparta Prague vs Lech Poznan (5) under 2.5 goals
The New Saints vs Anderlecht (5) both sides to score

UEFA European U19 Championships:

Spain U19 vs England U19 (7) 2-1
France U19 vs Croatia U19 (8) 2-0

Copa Libertadores:

Guadalajara vs Universidad de Chile (5) 0-0

Faroese Meistaradeildin:

Suduroy vs IF Fuglafjordur (5) 1-1
AB Argir vs EB/Streymur (6) 1-1
NSI Runavik vs B68 Toftir (9) -1.75 handicap

Japanese J-League:

Vegalta Sendai vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (6) 1-2
Kashima Antlers vs Albirex Niigata (8) 2-1
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Cerezo Osaka (4) 0-0

Singaporean S-League:

Etoile vs Sengkang Punggol (7) 2-0

Enjoy your free betting tips